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    I'm in favour of leaving the EU at the moment, and I've set out some of my reasons for wanting to leave below. Hoping some Remainers would explain why they disagree with these:

    Firstly, no one has presented anything like a suggestion to solving the various calamities which the EU is walking towards. No one knows how the Greek debt will resolve, no one knows how the migrant crisis will resolve and no one knows how hard the EU is gonna push for the fiscal and political union its leaders so desire. Extremist, left and right wing populist parties are on the rise and the whole eurozone is trapped in a stagflationary cycle. And as ever, the EU is crippled by inactivity - it took a year and a half before they even started talking to Turkey about stopping migrant flow, and the Germans have already cocked that up. Too many different people, with different cultures and different ideologies and different ideas of how they should be run, makes it virtually impossible for any meaningful solutions to be found, as evidenced by pretty much the entirety of the EU's existence.

    Secondly, the people who run the EU are unilaterally pushing closer integration, in spite of the overwhelming popular opinion being against it. It's a perversion of democracy. No one really wants this closer union except a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels/Strasbourg - and if you want an example of EU ludicrousness, how about the ridiculous waste of resources that is the transfer of EU headquarters from Brussels to Strasbourg and back every month?

    Thirdly, our economy is fundamentally different to those on the continent. Our income is built primarily on our services sector and especially our financial services, whereas continental european economies are dominated by manufacturing. The economic policy that would best suit ourselves will never be the same as that which will best serve the continental countries, and given as they outnumber us we'll lose out. We're already seeing the start of this with the push for closer financial regulations, which will eventually cripple our services sector.

    Fourthly, our contribution to the EU is going to go up sharply. Continental Europe is stuck in a stagflationary cycle, whilst our economy is doing rather well by comparison. As this trend continues - and it is definitely set to continue - it is inevitable that our contributions will go up sooner of later. Coupled with the similarly inevitable erosion of our rebate, and soon we'll be a second Germany; bankrolling the EU, or more accurately covering the costs of the poorer East European countries.

    Fifthly, immigration. I don't have an especial problem with people coming into our country, but an abundance of cheap unskilled labour is punching through the wage floor and dragging everyone else's pay down with it. I welcome the introduction of a National Living Wage, but this will inevitably draw even more unskilled workers into the UK labour market, which will end up counteracting any positives that low-paid workers would have gleaned. Perhaps more worryingly, is that over the next 3-10 years (depending on which EU country they live in) the migrants who have entered over the past couple years will be entitled to EU passports, giving them unfettered access to Britain. Now whilst they obviously aren't all terrorists and criminals, they do pretty unanimously have incredibly backwards views on women, homosexuals and democracy, amongst other things. It would be frankly dangerous to allow these kind of people, with these kind of ideologies, a place in Britain.

    I'll finish on a point which I think gets less credit than it's due; national identity. I don't feel European, and neither do most people. Certainly not in the way they do on the continent. We identify more with Americans, Australians or even some asian cultures than we do with the French or the Germans, we share more culture with them. We really don't have a shared identity with those who live on the continent. Which makes the whole desire to tether ourselves to them, especially when they're faltering so obviously, rather obvious.
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    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    I'm in favour of leaving the EU at the moment, and I've set out some of my reasons for wanting to leave below. Hoping some Remainers would explain why they disagree with these:

    Firstly, no one has presented anything like a suggestion to solving the various calamities which the EU is walking towards. No one knows how the Greek debt will resolve, no one knows how the migrant crisis will resolve and no one knows how hard the EU is gonna push for the fiscal and political union its leaders so desire. Extremist, left and right wing populist parties are on the rise and the whole eurozone is trapped in a stagflationary cycle. And as ever, the EU is crippled by inactivity - it took a year and a half before they even started talking to Turkey about stopping migrant flow, and the Germans have already cocked that up. Too many different people, with different cultures and different ideologies and different ideas of how they should be run, makes it virtually impossible for any meaningful solutions to be found, as evidenced by pretty much the entirety of the EU's existence.

    Secondly, the people who run the EU are unilaterally pushing closer integration, in spite of the overwhelming popular opinion being against it. It's a perversion of democracy. No one really wants this closer union except a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels/Strasbourg - and if you want an example of EU ludicrousness, how about the ridiculous waste of resources that is the transfer of EU headquarters from Brussels to Strasbourg and back every month?

    Thirdly, our economy is fundamentally different to those on the continent. Our income is built primarily on our services sector and especially our financial services, whereas continental european economies are dominated by manufacturing. The economic policy that would best suit ourselves will never be the same as that which will best serve the continental countries, and given as they outnumber us we'll lose out. We're already seeing the start of this with the push for closer financial regulations, which will eventually cripple our services sector.

    Fourthly, our contribution to the EU is going to go up sharply. Continental Europe is stuck in a stagflationary cycle, whilst our economy is doing rather well by comparison. As this trend continues - and it is definitely set to continue - it is inevitable that our contributions will go up sooner of later. Coupled with the similarly inevitable erosion of our rebate, and soon we'll be a second Germany; bankrolling the EU, or more accurately covering the costs of the poorer East European countries.

    Fifthly, immigration. I don't have an especial problem with people coming into our country, but an abundance of cheap unskilled labour is punching through the wage floor and dragging everyone else's pay down with it. I welcome the introduction of a National Living Wage, but this will inevitably draw even more unskilled workers into the UK labour market, which will end up counteracting any positives that low-paid workers would have gleaned. Perhaps more worryingly, is that over the next 3-10 years (depending on which EU country they live in) the migrants who have entered over the past couple years will be entitled to EU passports, giving them unfettered access to Britain. Now whilst they obviously aren't all terrorists and criminals, they do pretty unanimously have incredibly backwards views on women, homosexuals and democracy, amongst other things. It would be frankly dangerous to allow these kind of people, with these kind of ideologies, a place in Britain.

    I'll finish on a point which I think gets less credit than it's due; national identity. I don't feel European, and neither do most people. Certainly not in the way they do on the continent. We identify more with Americans, Australians or even some asian cultures than we do with the French or the Germans, we share more culture with them. We really don't have a shared identity with those who live on the continent. Which makes the whole desire to tether ourselves to them, especially when they're faltering so obviously, rather obvious.
    Too long man/I am dyslexic
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    (Original post by M14B)
    Too long man/I am dyslexic
    Hahaha tl;dr

    1) No one has any clue how to solve greek debt, migrant crisis or rise of extremist populists, so the long term risk is inside the EU, not outside.

    2) EU leaders are pushing for closer integration in spite of overwhelming popular opinion against it

    3) Continental Europe is built around manufacturing, so EU policy will favour that, to the detriment of our own services - especially financial services - based economy.

    4) Our success coupled with failings in continental europe means our contribution is going to rise very soon.

    5) Immigration drives down wages, and once the migrants have EU passports (within the next decade) they'll have unfettered access to Britain.

    6) No real notion of being European; we identify far more with Americans or the Aussies, so why tether ourselves to these failing European states.
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    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Hahaha tl;dr

    1) No one has any clue how to solve greek debt, migrant crisis or rise of extremist populists, so the long term risk is inside the EU, not outside.

    2) EU leaders are pushing for closer integration in spite of overwhelming popular opinion against it

    3) Continental Europe is built around manufacturing, so EU policy will favour that, to the detriment of our own services - especially financial services - based economy.

    4) Our success coupled with failings in continental europe means our contribution is going to rise very soon.

    5) Immigration drives down wages, and once the migrants have EU passports (within the next decade) they'll have unfettered access to Britain.

    6) No real notion of being European; we identify far more with Americans or the Aussies, so why tether ourselves to these failing European states.
    Lot better
    I am with you!
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    (Original post by M14B)
    Lot better
    I am with you!
    I guess I just like the sound of my own voice.......well prose really......you know what I mean :facepalm:
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    (Original post by M14B)
    Too long man/I am dyslexic
    lmao just my thoughts
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    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    I guess I just like the sound of my own voice.......well prose really......you know what I mean :facepalm:
    yeah
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    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Firstly, no one has presented anything like a suggestion to solving the various calamities which the EU is walking towards.
    We have very little to do with the Greek debt crisis. The refugee crisis isn't going to go away if we leave the EU; rather, if the EU actually had a quota system, the pressure on every individual country would be much better. Regardless, the refugee crisis isn't going to go away. Left-wing populist parties aren't particularly a concern; right-wing populist parties are but, again, I don't see them really affecting us.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Secondly, the people who run the EU are unilaterally pushing closer integration, in spite of the overwhelming popular opinion being against it. It's a perversion of democracy. No one really wants this closer union except a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels/Strasbourg - and if you want an example of EU ludicrousness, how about the ridiculous waste of resources that is the transfer of EU headquarters from Brussels to Strasbourg and back every month?
    There won't be a further transfer of powers to Brussels without a referendum, and we're out of any "ever closer union" as per Cameron's renegotiation.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Thirdly, our economy is fundamentally different to those on the continent. Our income is built primarily on our services sector and especially our financial services, whereas continental european economies are dominated by manufacturing. The economic policy that would best suit ourselves will never be the same as that which will best serve the continental countries, and given as they outnumber us we'll lose out. We're already seeing the start of this with the push for closer financial regulations, which will eventually cripple our services sector.
    As per Cameron's renegotiation, the City will be protected. Also, the preponderance of evidence suggests that our economy will suffer if we left the EU. There won't be an economic apocalypse as some are suggesting, but regardless of the actual figure, we will lose out an economic growth; the only real question is: how much? The think-tank Open Europe has published perhaps the most rigorous estimate of the consequences, and finds that scenarios in which the economy suffers are both more likely, and the losses larger in magnitude than any potential gains. It even finds that a scenario in which we negotiate a trade deal with the EU will still see us lose out economically, unless we carry out liberalisation and maintain relatively open borders (which just won't happen), as immigration benefits the economy.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Fourthly, our contribution to the EU is going to go up sharply. Continental Europe is stuck in a stagflationary cycle, whilst our economy is doing rather well by comparison. As this trend continues - and it is definitely set to continue - it is inevitable that our contributions will go up sooner of later. Coupled with the similarly inevitable erosion of our rebate, and soon we'll be a second Germany; bankrolling the EU, or more accurately covering the costs of the poorer East European countries.
    Our per capita contribution is probably not going to get to the level where it outweighs the income that we each gain from being a member of the EU and experiencing the economic benefits. If we left the EU, per capita income would fall, even taking into account the fact that we each give around £100 a year to the EU.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Fifthly, immigration. I don't have an especial problem with people coming into our country, but an abundance of cheap unskilled labour is punching through the wage floor and dragging everyone else's pay down with it.
    There's actually little evidence of this.

    Now, it is true that immigration does have a slightly negative impact on the employment of low-skilled natives, this being counter-balanced by it having a slightly positive impact on the employment of medium to high-skilled natives, meaning that it overall has no net effect.

    Overall native employment can decrease due to immigration in an economic downturn due to non-EU migration, when job losses for low-skilled natives outweigh jobs created by immigration elsewhere. So, yes, there's a slight cost there for low-skilled natives during an economic downturn, which we aren't currently in.

    But, on wages, which you specifically talked about, immigration has a negligible impact on the wages of low-skilled natives, but a positive impact on the wages of medium and high-skilled natives. Overall, therefore, immigration actually increases average native wages. The only people who lose out when it comes to wages are recent immigrants themselves, who see their wages drop by ~6-7%. Why is the effect so small and positive for the average native? Because immigration raises GDP per capita.

    And, there's no guarantee that even low-skilled workers will lose out at all, in fact.

    Peri and Foged, in a 2013 study, tracked the wages and employment of every individual worker in Denmark from 1991-2008, and tracked how they responded to large influxes of refugees from places like Somalia, Afghanistan and Bosnia. This is a particularly robust study because the Danish government randomly distributed these refugees to counties in Denmark, giving the researchers a great data-set to work with. They found that average low-skilled wages, native low-skilled wages and employment all increased, along with occupational mobility.

    Why? Perhaps the fact that the refugees were randomly distributed made the difference. This suggests that we should be giving more support to regions of the UK in which immigration is a lot higher than in other places.

    Also, we have to consider the massive benefits that immigration brings to the immigrants themselves, in terms of their living standards.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    they do pretty unanimously have incredibly backwards views on women, homosexuals and democracy, amongst other things. It would be frankly dangerous to allow these kind of people, with these kind of ideologies, a place in Britain.
    Surely, by this logic, we should deport any Christian and Jewish fundamentalists with incredibly backward views, as well as right-wing and left-wing extremists with anti-democratic views? Should we also screen people for these beliefs in general when before allowing them in here?

    In any case, when immigrants come to the West, there's a net movement that favours the adoption of universal, liberal values. These attitudes won't go away just because we don't let people into the country; immigration actually helps people lose conservative attitudes: immigrant populations in both the United States and the UK have more liberal attitudes than those in their native countries.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    I'll finish on a point which I think gets less credit than it's due; national identity. I don't feel European, and neither do most people. Certainly not in the way they do on the continent.
    This doesn't change the fact that our economy will likely suffer if we leave the EU.
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    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    I'm in favour of leaving the EU at the moment, and I've set out some of my reasons for wanting to leave below. Hoping some Remainers would explain why they disagree with these:

    Firstly, no one has presented anything like a suggestion to solving the various calamities which the EU is walking towards. No one knows how the Greek debt will resolve,
    However it plays out the impact on the UK will not be significantly different

    no one knows how the migrant crisis will resolve
    I think we do. Germany will take the vast majority of those who are already here. Borders will be toughened this year and as peace returns to Syria and Iraq with the military defeat of ISIS people tired of Turkish refugee camps will wander home. The problem will go away until the next time, when Europe will similarly behave like a bunch of headless chickens. The key to Britain's border remains French and to a lesser extent Belgian and Dutch co-operation.

    and no one knows how hard the EU is gonna push for the fiscal and political union its leaders so desire.
    Who are the leaders who so desire it? If Merkel had wanted it, she could have had it for the Eurozone at any time 2008-2014


    Extremist, left and right wing populist parties are on the rise
    I want some statistics on this compared with say 1982


    and the whole eurozone is trapped in a stagflationary cycle.

    Prices are falling, not rising in the Eurozone. There is no inflation.


    And as ever, the EU is crippled by inactivity- it took a year and a half before they even started talking to Turkey about stopping migrant flow, and the Germans have already cocked that up.
    Is it crippled by inactivity or is a power mad devourer of the independence of EU states?

    Too many different people, with different cultures and different ideologies and different ideas of how they should be run, makes it virtually impossible for any meaningful solutions to be found, as evidenced by pretty much the entirety of the EU's existence.
    And how will the position of say stopping Libyans in boats trying to get to Italy improve if we are not at the table? Why will our absence from these discussions make the decision making easier?

    Secondly, the people who run the EU are unilaterally pushing closer integration, in spite of the overwhelming popular opinion being against it.
    First of all can have the statistics for the "overwhelming popular opinion" and I don't mean a single opinion poll. Can you give me some figures over say the last 3 years and please include in those figures the stances of the political parties for which most Europeans voted at the EU elections.

    Who in your opinion are the people running the EU? Do they include Merkel, Hollande, Cameron and Renzi?

    It's a perversion of democracy.
    We elect MPs, a majority of whom choose Cameron. We send Cameron to represent us at the EU Council along with the elected Prime Ministers/Presidents of other EU states. And the perversion is?


    No one really wants this closer union except a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels/Strasbourg
    Well this is Fianna Fail's European election manifesto.

    https://www.scribd.com/doc/221147883...tion-Manifesto

    Doesn't really support your take on this does it? I've included this because it is in English but I could have included the manifestos of all of the major parties throughout Europe


    - and if you want an example of EU ludicrousness, how about the ridiculous waste of resources that is the transfer of EU headquarters from Brussels to Strasbourg and back every month?
    It is the Parliament not the bureaucracy that moves. It is ridiculous but, like the UK rebate, it was a deal struck many years ago and deals have to be honoured.

    Thirdly, our economy is fundamentally different to those on the continent. Our income is built primarily on our services sector and especially our financial services, whereas continental european economies are dominated by manufacturing. The economic policy that would best suit ourselves will never be the same as that which will best serve the continental countries, and given as they outnumber us we'll lose out. We're already seeing the start of this with the push for closer financial regulations, which will eventually cripple our services sector.
    Rubbish. Our services sector is marginally smaller than that of France

    Fourthly, our contribution to the EU is going to go up sharply. Continental Europe is stuck in a stagflationary cycle,
    There isn't any inflation in the Eurozone

    whilst our economy is doing rather well by comparison. As this trend continues - and it is definitely set to continue - it is inevitable that our contributions will go up sooner of later. Coupled with the similarly inevitable erosion of our rebate, and soon we'll be a second Germany; bankrolling the EU, or more accurately covering the costs of the poorer East European countries.
    Our net contributions are likely to rise but by very modest amounts from the present £8.5Bn net a year.

    Fifthly, immigration. I don't have an especial problem with people coming into our country, but an abundance of cheap unskilled labour is punching through the wage floor and dragging everyone else's pay down with it. I welcome the introduction of a National Living Wage, but this will inevitably draw even more unskilled workers into the UK labour market, which will end up counteracting any positives that low-paid workers would have gleaned. Perhaps more worryingly, is that over the next 3-10 years (depending on which EU country they live in) the migrants who have entered over the past couple years will be entitled to EU passports, giving them unfettered access to Britain.
    They will have unfettered access to Britain but it is nonsense to think that people have travelled from the Turkish border to Sweden and Finland because they really want to be in Britain.

    If you really want to be working until you are 80 and for your children to be digging up potatoes for a career then stop migrants coming in.

    Now whilst they obviously aren't all terrorists and criminals, they do pretty unanimously have incredibly backwards views on women, homosexuals and democracy, amongst other things. It would be frankly dangerous to allow these kind of people, with these kind of ideologies, a place in Britain.
    No they don't. Most of them want to get away from that sort of place. That is why they are running from Isis rather than joining them.

    I'll finish on a point which I think gets less credit than it's due; national identity. I don't feel European, and neither do most people. Certainly not in the way they do on the continent. We identify more with Americans, Australians or even some asian cultures than we do with the French or the Germans, we share more culture with them. We really don't have a shared identity with those who live on the continent. Which makes the whole desire to tether ourselves to them, especially when they're faltering so obviously, rather obvious.
    I think you are in a smaller minority than you realise as any fish n'chip shop proprietor on the Costa del Sol will tell you.
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    (Original post by viddy9)
    We have very little to do with the Greek debt crisis. The refugee crisis isn't going to go away if we leave the EU; rather, if the EU actually had a quota system, the pressure on every individual country would be much better. Regardless, the refugee crisis isn't going to go away. Left-wing populist parties aren't particularly a concern; right-wing populist parties are but, again, I don't see them really affecting us.
    The fallout from a Greek default would be catastrophic. We may not be caught in the storm quite so much as the eurozone, but it would have a devastating effect on all the EU countries. And given the IMF recently downgrading the Greek debt, effectively saying they believe it shall never be paid back, this risk is very real.

    It won't go away, but control of our borders and no requirement to shoulder the burden means that the migrant crisis will have limited effect on Britain. And what we've seen so far, was that the most effective way to stem the flow was nation states taking it upon themselves to make a stand. The balkan countries and especially Austria shutting their borders, despite staunch criticism from Germany (which quickly dissipated once they realised it was working), is what has started to stem the flow. It certainly wasn't the EU.

    Left and right wing extremist populists should be a concern for us all. Golden Dawn isn't something I'd aspire to seeing within our political system exactly.

    (Original post by viddy9)
    There won't be a further transfer of powers to Brussels without a referendum, and we're out of any "ever closer union" as per Cameron's renegotiation.
    Of course there will, if by proxy if nothing else. If all the other countries become ever more closely interlinked, then their interests will align until we're just outnumbered in all the votes. This idea that we can sit on the outside whilst all the other countries form some kind of superstate is daft; once such a state is formed, it'll dominate us by virtue of its size.

    (Original post by viddy9)
    As per Cameron's renegotiation, the City will be protected. Also, the preponderance of evidence suggests that our economy will suffer if we left the EU. There won't be an economic apocalypse as some are suggesting, but regardless of the actual figure, we will lose out an economic growth; the only real question is: how much? The think-tank Open Europe has published perhaps the most rigorous estimate of the consequences, and finds that scenarios in which the economy suffers are both more likely, and the losses larger in magnitude than any potential gains. It even finds that a scenario in which we negotiate a trade deal with the EU will still see us lose out economically, unless we carry out liberalisation and maintain relatively open borders (which just won't happen), as immigration benefits the economy.
    You sure you read the Open Europe report? It said the most realistic effect by 2030 was somewhere between a permanent -0.8% and +0.6% change in GDP. It's virtually as likely to help us as to hinder us by their modelling, and they - like most of the other reports being touted - for some reason presume we will maintain the tariffs that the EU necessitates. It also presumes that trade deals of any form wouldn't be in place until at least 2023, which again seems unduly pessimistic. And given as all of this is well within the statistical error margin of a financial forecast which is trying to look 15 years ahead in a climate of much uncertainty without any precedent to base it on, the report pretty much comes to the conclusion that we don't really know what'll happen.

    (Original post by viddy9)
    Our per capita contribution is probably not going to get to the level where it outweighs the income that we each gain from being a member of the EU and experiencing the economic benefits. If we left the EU, per capita income would fall, even taking into account the fact that we each give around £100 a year to the EU.
    But you'll notice that this wasn't considered in the Open Europe report, or any other models. Combined with the inevitable loss of the rebate within the next couple of EU budgets, we'll be the biggest or second biggest contributor. And you still haven't explained why we should be contributing all this money to prop up eastern european countries which aren't willing to make the difficult economic decisions to solve their countries' issues, instead relying on our handouts.

    (Original post by viddy9)
    There's actually little evidence of this.

    Now, it is true that immigration does have a slightly negative impact on the employment of low-skilled natives, this being counter-balanced by it having a slightly positive impact on the employment of medium to high-skilled natives, meaning that it overall has no net effect.

    Overall native employment can decrease due to immigration in an economic downturn due to non-EU migration, when job losses for low-skilled natives outweigh jobs created by immigration elsewhere. So, yes, there's a slight cost there for low-skilled natives during an economic downturn, which we aren't currently in.

    But, on wages, which you specifically talked about, immigration has a negligible impact on the wages of low-skilled natives, but a positive impact on the wages of medium and high-skilled natives. Overall, therefore, immigration actually increases average native wages. The only people who lose out when it comes to wages are recent immigrants themselves, who see their wages drop by ~6-7%. Why is the effect so small and positive for the average native? Because immigration raises GDP per capita.

    And, there's no guarantee that even low-skilled workers will lose out at all, in fact.

    Peri and Foged, in a 2013 study, tracked the wages and employment of every individual worker in Denmark from 1991-2008, and tracked how they responded to large influxes of refugees from places like Somalia, Afghanistan and Bosnia. This is a particularly robust study because the Danish government randomly distributed these refugees to counties in Denmark, giving the researchers a great data-set to work with. They found that average low-skilled wages, native low-skilled wages and employment all increased, along with occupational mobility.

    Why? Perhaps the fact that the refugees were randomly distributed made the difference. This suggests that we should be giving more support to regions of the UK in which immigration is a lot higher than in other places.

    Also, we have to consider the massive benefits that immigration brings to the immigrants themselves, in terms of their living standards.
    You're right that in times of extended prosperity, the fact that immigration raises GDP means that over time, wages do end up rising. But in the short term, immigration most definitely does reduce wages - a Bank of England report by Stephen Nickell and someone else (their name escapes me) found that a 10% increase in the proportion of low-skilled workers who are immigrants brings about a 2-5% decrease in wages in these jobs.

    Also, we live in a time of fairly limited economic growth, and our economy faces very real threats from the slowdown in China and the falling oil prices. And by your own admission, in these times low-skilled immigration is especially detrimental.

    (Original post by viddy9)
    Surely, by this logic, we should deport any Christian and Jewish fundamentalists with incredibly backward views, as well as right-wing and left-wing extremists with anti-democratic views? Should we also screen people for these beliefs in general when before allowing them in here?

    In any case, when immigrants come to the West, there's a net movement that favours the adoption of universal, liberal values. These attitudes won't go away just because we don't let people into the country; immigration actually helps people lose conservative attitudes: immigrant populations in both the United States and the UK have more liberal attitudes than those in their native countries.
    Except you can't really deport someone who is born here. And that's not even the point. They're entitled to have their extremist views, but they're not entitled to enforce them. Tell me the last time we saw Christians or Jews in Britain trying to enforce their views on the public, or political extremists trying to do away with our parliamentary or judicial system?

    Of course, you forget to mention the other half of that which is that it puts a lot of people in our countries at risk. It's a lesson that Germany and Sweden have learnt the hard way. Not letting them in may not get rid of their attitudes, but it stops them enforcing their attitude on ourselves.

    (Original post by viddy9)
    This doesn't change the fact that our economy will likely suffer if we leave the EU.
    The Open Europe report you quoted makes no such assertion.
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    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    The fallout from a Greek default would be catastrophic. We may not be caught in the storm quite so much as the eurozone, but it would have a devastating effect on all the EU countries. And given the IMF recently downgrading the Greek debt, effectively saying they believe it shall never be paid back, this risk is very real.
    And, economists and business leaders know this, yet they overwhelmingly think that staying in the EU is beneficial for our economy.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    It won't go away, but control of our borders and no requirement to shoulder the burden means that the migrant crisis will have limited effect on Britain.
    The refugee crisis has already had a limited effect on Britain, because we have no requirement to shoulder the burden and we have control of our borders.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Left and right wing extremist populists should be a concern for us all. Golden Dawn isn't something I'd aspire to seeing within our political system exactly.
    As I said, rightwing populists are extremely concerning, but they're not going to go away. A 70+ year old economics professor keeping out the far-right in Austria, Alexander van der Bellen, is not concerning at all.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Of course there will, if by proxy if nothing else. If all the other countries become ever more closely interlinked, then their interests will align until we're just outnumbered in all the votes. This idea that we can sit on the outside whilst all the other countries form some kind of superstate is daft; once such a state is formed, it'll dominate us by virtue of its size.
    This is pure speculation. Brexiteers have been saying for such a long time that "we'll be outvoted" and "the other countries will gang up on us", yet we overwhelmingly win the votes in the EU.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    You sure you read the Open Europe report? It said the most realistic effect by 2030 was somewhere between a permanent -0.8% and +0.6% change in GDP.
    It also says: “In none of our scenarios would the cost of leaving the single market and the EU customs union be off-set by merely striking a new trade deal with the EU. Britain will only prosper outside the EU if it is prepared to use its new found freedom to undertake active steps towards trade liberalisation and deregulation... In order to be competitive outside the EU, Britain would need to keep a liberal policy for labour migration. However, of those voters who want to leave the EU, a majority rank limiting free movement and immigration as their main motivation, meaning the UK may move in the opposite direction.”

    It also found that substantial trade deals with countries such as India would involve exposing British firms and workers to more competition from workers abroad, which may be politically inconvenient.

    So, it's in effect saying that losses to our economy are more likely than the gains, because the types of people who want to leave the EU are going to make bad policy decisions, and it's highly likely that we'll see lots of uncertainty in the meantime which will damage our economy. In addition, the reports by the OECD, the IMF and the Bank of England have to be given some weight, even if I think they're less rigorous than, say, the Open Europe report. There's no point in taking that risk.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    But you'll notice that this wasn't considered in the Open Europe report, or any other models. Combined with the inevitable loss of the rebate within the next couple of EU budgets, we'll be the biggest or second biggest contributor. And you still haven't explained why we should be contributing all this money to prop up eastern european countries which aren't willing to make the difficult economic decisions to solve their countries' issues, instead relying on our handouts.
    The rebate is nothing, it's miniscule, compared to the economic gains that we get, and it will continue to be miniscule even if (and it's a big if) we pay a bit extra. Our net contribution isn't going to suddenly increase by a factor of 9.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    You're right that in times of extended prosperity, the fact that immigration raises GDP means that over time, wages do end up rising. But in the short term, immigration most definitely does reduce wages - a Bank of England report by Stephen Nickell and someone else (their name escapes me) found that a 10% increase in the proportion of low-skilled workers who are immigrants brings about a 2-5% decrease in wages in these jobs.
    Thanks for pointing that out, I shall give it a read, and I've already updated and lowered my credence in what I said earlier somewhat as a result, though I'll have to read it properly. So, the best that can be said is that there's conflicting evidence on this wage issue: it's a highly overconfident statement to be saying "immigration most definitely does reduce wages", when a number of other studies have found that it has a slight positive effect on average native wages.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Also, we live in a time of fairly limited economic growth, and our economy faces very real threats from the slowdown in China and the falling oil prices. And by your own admission, in these times low-skilled immigration is especially detrimental.
    I would hardly say that we're in an economic downturn, but it's true that there are a number of risks to the economy, one being the growth-killing austerity measures that this government is implementing. Yet, if there's a Brexit, there will be a black hole in the budget as the IFS have stated, and that means further growth-killing austerity measures.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Except you can't really deport someone who is born here. And that's not even the point. They're entitled to have their extremist views, but they're not entitled to enforce them. Tell me the last time we saw Christians or Jews in Britain trying to enforce their views on the public, or political extremists trying to do away with our parliamentary or judicial system?
    There are political extremists on the far-right and the far-left, who may be Christian, atheist, or so on, who are trying to enforce their views on the public and trying to do away with our parliamentary and judicial system. So, again: do you ban people with far-right and far-left views from entering the country?

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    Of course, you forget to mention the other half of that which is that it puts a lot of people in our countries at risk.
    I'm sorry, but driving cars, slipping in bathtubs and getting stung by bees are more likely to occur than any serious and systematic crimes committed by immigrants. People are, predictably, falling prey to the availability heuristic and becoming hysterical, as they do with plane crashes and other such "big" events.

    (Original post by Luke Kostanjsek)
    The Open Europe report you quoted makes no such assertion.
    As I said, it suggests that scenarios in which our economy suffers are more likely, and combined with all of the other reports, which we must put some probability weight on, it's very likely that our economy will suffer.
 
 
 
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