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Why is the EU economy stagnant? And will a new radical right Tory government help? Watch

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    Much is made by the Leave campaign of the stagnation in the European economy.

    The major cause of EU (and especially Eurozone) austerity is the government spending policies of the main economies, particularly in Germany. Fiscal tightening by Germany has been the worst possible response to the aftermath of the financial crash of 2008 and has made the stagnation and failure to recover much worse than in the years following the Great Depression.
    https://www.socialeurope.eu/2016/03/...onomy-numbers/

    We have so far managed to retain a more fiscally loose posture than Germany and the Eurozone, hence the UK has recovered more quickly than the continent.

    Will things continue to get better if we leave? The Brexiteers claim that the UK will continue to flourish outside the EU. Our economic situation is not nearly as strong as claimed by some Brexit people, but let's examine the situation after Brexit.

    Cameron and Osborne will quit. Osborne, love him or hate him, has been carrying out much looser fiscal policies that in the Eurozone. Austerity here has been too much, but not as much as it could have been.

    The Dave/George policy will collapse. They will be replaced after a Leave vote by a determined cabal of hard Right ideological Tories under Johnson or Gove. The policy outcome will be absolutely inevitable. They will call for big increases in austerity and swinging cuts to government programmes.

    The result will be equally inevitable - the UK will slump downwards as their new ideological experiment takes hold. Tory minister after Tory minister will urge us to hold out, that "there will be pain to start with but things will improve".

    In 5-10 years, we will probably be indistinguishable from Portugal or Greece.
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    Forget the Tories, UKIP is the way we need to go!
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    (Original post by Peroxidation)
    Forget the Tories, UKIP is the way we need to go!
    Farage totally shares the radical right 'extreme austerity' agenda of his colleagues in the right of the Tory Party, so a Tory/Ukip alliance or whatever would be no different and possibly even worse.
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    (Original post by Peroxidation)
    Forget the Tories, UKIP is the way we need to go!
    Nige will save us

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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Farage totally shares the radical right 'extreme austerity' agenda of his colleagues in the right of the Tory Party, so a Tory/Ukip alliance or whatever would be no different and possibly even worse.
    UKIP can't decide whether they are left or right because they want to steal voters from both of the main parties. They want to slash taxes even more the Conservatives yet they want free hospital parking, greater defence spending and a load of random bits of spending they picked by throwing darts at a board.
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    (Original post by BasicMistake)
    UKIP can't decide whether they are left or right because they want to steal voters from both of the main parties. They want to slash taxes even more the Conservatives yet they want free hospital parking, greater defence spending and a load of random bits of spending they picked by throwing darts at a board.
    UKIP's obsession with the military is pathetic, they're opposed to all of the progressive interventions/neo-liberal crusades yet they are so convinced we need more military spending. For what exactly?
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    (Original post by Passion Fruit)
    UKIP's obsession with the military is pathetic, they're opposed to all of the progressive interventions/neo-liberal crusades yet they are so convinced we need more military spending. For what exactly?
    Farage and his party are total panderers, they know that their demographic want to hear them talking tough about 'more military', so they advocate more military spending, but at the same time, many of the armchair generals who 'want Britain to be tough' don't actually like the site of injured soldiers and the dead coming back from warzones, so Farage opposes any actual involvements.

    Pathetic stuff, as you say.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Farage and his party are total panderers, they know that their demographic want to hear them talking tough about 'more military', so they advocate more military spending, but at the same time, many of the armchair generals who 'want Britain to be tough' don't actually like the site of injured soldiers and the dead coming back from warzones, so Farage opposes any actual involvements.

    Pathetic stuff, as you say.
    I cannot take a party at all seriously when one of their main policies is to waste money, for the exclusive purpose of appeasing people. At least a peaceful capitalist party might downsize the military and use the money saved to lower taxes or a left-wing party might save money and use that to help the poor, the elderly and the disabled. They might as well build a giant solid gold phallus in the centre of London and enscribe the words ''WE THA BEST''
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    (Original post by Passion Fruit)
    UKIP's obsession with the military is pathetic, they're opposed to all of the progressive interventions/neo-liberal crusades yet they are so convinced we need more military spending. For what exactly?
    Maybe they understand:
    "Si vis pacem, para bellum"
    if you want peace you prepare for war.

    Maybe not though - maybe latin is too complex for them. Maybe they understand:

    "Speak softly and carry a big stick"

    Or perhaps they understand geography -
    The UK is an island & therefore we rely on imports/exports from all over the globe. Therefore having a navy & air force effective enough to ensure trading routes & the UK's waters are secure is rather important.

    I'm hardly a UKIP fan but it is annoying how successive governments, both Labour & Conservative are happy to cut the armed forces while expecting more capability. (Blair/Brown with Afghan/Iraq, Cameron with Libya etc) Maybe we can spend more on defence while being non-interventionist rather than spending less on defence but still expecting the armed forces to take on multiple wars?
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    (Original post by Passion Fruit)
    I cannot take a party at all seriously when one of their main policies is to waste money, for the exclusive purpose of appeasing people. At least a peaceful capitalist party might downsize the military and use the money saved to lower taxes or a left-wing party might save money and use that to help the poor, the elderly and the disabled. They might as well build a giant solid gold phallus in the centre of London and enscribe the words ''WE THA BEST''
    Perhaps the new UKIP super-large military will be trained to shoot incoming immigrants on the beaches?

    Or roam in supermarkets 'taking down' suspected migrants and delivering them to 'special handling' camps.
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    (Original post by Tempest II)
    Maybe they understand:
    "Si vis pacem, para bellum"
    if you want peace you prepare for war.

    Maybe not though - maybe latin is too complex for them. Maybe they understand:

    "Speak softly and carry a big stick"

    Or perhaps they understand geography -
    The UK is an island & therefore we rely on imports/exports from all over the globe. Therefore having a navy & air force effective enough to ensure trading routes & the UK's waters are secure is rather important.

    I'm hardly a UKIP fan but it is annoying how successive governments, both Labour & Conservative are happy to cut the armed forces while expecting more capability. (Blair/Brown with Afghan/Iraq, Cameron with Libya etc) Maybe we can spend more on defence while being non-interventionist rather than spending less on defence but still expecting the armed forces to take on multiple wars?
    Agree totally with your latter point. Blair was at the other end of the spectrum - wanting the military to do everything, but with no money. Cameron has continued that policy to some extent.
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    (Original post by Peroxidation)
    Forget the Tories, UKIP is the way we need to go!
    UKIP?
    We need a more Nationalist Party!
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    (Original post by Tempest II)
    Maybe they understand:
    "Si vis pacem, para bellum"
    if you want peace you prepare for war.

    Maybe not though - maybe latin is too complex for them. Maybe they understand:

    "Speak softly and carry a big stick"

    Or perhaps they understand geography -
    The UK is an island & therefore we rely on imports/exports from all over the globe. Therefore having a navy & air force effective enough to ensure trading routes & the UK's waters are secure is rather important.

    I'm hardly a UKIP fan but it is annoying how successive governments, both Labour & Conservative are happy to cut the armed forces while expecting more capability. (Blair/Brown with Afghan/Iraq, Cameron with Libya etc) Maybe we can spend more on defence while being non-interventionist rather than spending less on defence but still expecting the armed forces to take on multiple wars?
    If that's so much of an issue, then remaining in the EU and creating a pan-European military which can respond to such problems rapidly and effectively is the most cost effective solution. As well as collaborating with our NATO allies of course.

    This country is very safe from outside invasion, we have a nuclear deterrent and we're perfectly capable of securing our borders, this isn't the 18th century, we're not going to go to war with our European neighbours any time soon. The most effective means of ensuring our safety is not a tonne of soldiers, but highly trained well funded police constabularies and our elite intelligence agencies
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    (Original post by ODES_PDES)
    UKIP?
    We need a more Nationalist Party!
    Maybe they could be socialists too :sly:
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    (Original post by Passion Fruit)
    Maybe they could be socialists too :sly:
    Socialists want to sell us to Europe, in my opinion
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    The result will be equally inevitable - the UK will slump downwards as their new ideological experiment takes hold. Tory minister after Tory minister will urge us to hold out, that "there will be pain to start with but things will improve".

    In 5-10 years, we will probably be indistinguishable from Portugal or Greece.
    I wouldn't go that far, but I think the bad press that occurs within the first year or so will be enough to leave everyone questioning what just happened. Already, things are on the brink. The NHS, whilst one of the protected budgets has not seen the year-on-year increase it has enjoyed since its creation and the cracks are starting to appear with bed blocking and targets being missed. The education system is in crisis with demoralised teachers leaving in droves and border control (the people responsible for keep that lot out) has seen cut after cut.

    It will be good news for the elite who will be allowed to erode workers rights and standards hence boosting profits, but it will be bad for everyone else.
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    (Original post by Passion Fruit)
    If that's so much of an issue, then remaining in the EU and creating a pan-European military which can respond to such problems rapidly and effectively is the most cost effective solution. As well as collaborating with our NATO allies of course.

    This country is very safe from outside invasion, we have a nuclear deterrent and we're perfectly capable of securing our borders, this isn't the 18th century, we're not going to go to war with our European neighbours any time soon. The most effective means of ensuring our safety is not a tonne of soldiers, but highly trained well funded police constabularies and our elite intelligence agencies
    I highly doubt an EU military would respond to an attack on the Falklands & why should it? If the Moroccans invaded Ceuta, the Spanish autonomous city, would the UK people/government want to get involved?

    No we're better off having control of our armed forces; I do doubt we'd be able to act unilaterally in any large scale conflict so having allies in NATO is certainly necessary. However, the UK needs the full ability to act against a hostile power should Parliament elect to do so.
    It is highly we'll find ourselves up against another European power but the world isn't a particularly rational place. From what I remember, France was German's biggest trading partner prior to 1939. Russia & Germany had economic agreements up until 1941. Very few individuals expected the USSR to collapse in 1990/91. Nor was 9/11 predicted.
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    (Original post by Tempest II)
    I highly doubt an EU military would respond to an attack on the Falklands & why should it.
    Vote in Labour at the next election and there wouldn't be a response anyway........
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    (Original post by Tempest II)
    I highly doubt an EU military would respond to an attack on the Falklands & why should it? If the Moroccans invaded Ceuta, the Spanish autonomous city, would the UK people/government want to get involved?

    No we're better off having control of our armed forces; I do doubt we'd be able to act unilaterally in any large scale conflict so having allies in NATO is certainly necessary. However, the UK needs the full ability to act against a hostile power should Parliament elect to do so.
    It is highly we'll find ourselves up against another European power but the world isn't a particularly rational place. From what I remember, France was German's biggest trading partner prior to 1939. Russia & Germany had economic agreements up until 1941. Very few individuals expected the USSR to collapse in 1990/91. Nor was 9/11 predicted.
    Perhaps a more interesting one from our perspective than the situation in Ceuta is what will happen to Gibralter. Let's not forget that the current and recent Spanish governments have been increasingly belligerent over it (perhaps seeking a distraction, Argentina-style, to economic woes for the population of a country with a macho tradition) and who knows, along with Brexit, may come much more sustained demands that the UK hand Gibralter over. It's perhaps not too much of a stretch to then imagine the EU Parliament passing a critical motion of Britain, describing us as colonialists and then - why not - a new EU army being sent in alongside the Spanish patrol boats and armoured fishing smacks to recover it. :eek:

    Not to worry though, by then we should have our new aircraft carriers ready for battle, albeit without any actual planes.
 
 
 
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