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    Scenario one:

    We leave the EU we temp get better economy, then the EU turns bitter sanctions us, watches us starve after doing a demolition job to our economy for the past 10 years and declares war against us combined with civil war EU wide because of Radical Muslims, World War 3 commences.


    Scenario two:

    We remain in the EU things slowly get worse and worse as they destroy our countries with fake debt, they let more and more radical Muslims in civil war erupts and World War 3 starts
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    I'm struggling to decide which of these scenarios is more inaccurate/unlikely.

    Kudos for being unbiased at least?
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    (Original post by Elivercury)
    I'm struggling to decide which of these scenarios is more inaccurate/unlikely.

    Kudos for being unbiased at least?
    Perhaps you'd be so kind to explain how the above events wont come to pass?
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    (Original post by LettuceBeReal)
    EU turns bitter sanctions us, watches us starve after doing a demolition job to our economy for the past 10 years and declares war against us
    Never going to happen, it's not in their interest to, their (national) political leaders are not embittered (it's the EU technocrats who will be sore), and the EU is supposed to be 'progressive' (wouldn't sign up to starving anyone)

    civil war EU wide because of Radical Muslims
    Much, much more likely - already seen shades of this in parts of Europe like Scandinavia, Germany, and France. More to come, sadly

    they destroy our countries with fake debt
    Fake debt? European nations have destroyed themselves with debt tbh, and we're no different. 20% of Italian loans are now non-performing, French banking also on the rocks, Germany exposed to every tremor in EU - the whole lot will stack, sooner or later, so strap yourselves in :erm:

    let more and more radical Muslims in civil war erupts and World War 3 starts
    I don't see why regional civil conflict would lead to WWIII. The Muslim world is not positioned to launch an offensive against us. The most they could achieve would be ME regional strikes and possibly limited nuclear strikes from Pakistan (which NATO would largely intercept)
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    Political Ambassador
    Not if we emigrate
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    (Original post by Foo.mp3)
    Never going to happen, it's not in their interest to, their (national) political leaders are not embittered (it's the EU technocrats who will be sore), and the EU is supposed to be 'progressive' (wouldn't sign up to starving anyone)
    I don't know where you've been getting your news, but ordinary politicians of EU Member States have been making pretty clear noises that they are unwilling to give the UK an easy time in exit negotiations. They have absolutely no desire to, nor any need to. We'll have just defecated in their kitchen and then expecting to sit at the table.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    I don't know where you've been getting your news, but ordinary politicians of EU Member States have been making pretty clear noises that they are unwilling to give the UK an easy time in exit negotiations. They have absolutely no desire to, nor any need to. We'll have just defecated in their kitchen and then expecting to sit at the table.
    There is a lot of wiggle room between a full on embargo to starve us out and kicking open the door and letting us sit down like nothing ever happened.

    Realistically I suspect we'd just be put at the back of the queue for trade negotiations and they'd try to give us the *****est deal possible. Which is pretty fair all things considered.
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    (Original post by Elivercury)
    There is a lot of wiggle room between a full on embargo to starve us out and kicking open the door and letting us sit down like nothing ever happened.

    Realistically I suspect we'd just be put at the back of the queue for trade negotiations and they'd try to give us the *****est deal possible. Which is pretty fair all things considered.
    Well I don't think the EU is going to 'starve us out' - we're in the EU until we leave, after all - but the idea that these negotiations could take place and not be overclouded by the sheer venom that Leave have poured on the EU is just barking.

    It's akin to an independent Scotland negotiating with rUK - there was no doubt that there would be very strong personal, political and geopolitical reasons why both rUK and the EU would want to, and have to, give iScotland a hard time.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    I don't know where you've been getting your news, but ordinary politicians of EU Member States have been making pretty clear noises that they are unwilling to give the UK an easy time in exit negotiations
    Politicians say an awful lot in front of the media (see Project Fear and prior pro-#Brexit pronouncements of Cameron/Corbyn FYR). What really matters is how administrations/diplomats go about their business after-the-fact, largely away from the cameras. I'd encourage you to consider the distinction between the media circus and realpolitik

    We'll have just defecated in their kitchen and then expecting to sit at the table
    If your neighbour decided to build the garden wall up a bit and stop paying your kid to dogsit for them would you turn your back on £120,000,000,000 worth of net goods trade just because (s)he hurt your feelings (when most of your population are burning for a referendum of their own)? Probably not, I'm guessing
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    (Original post by Foo.mp3)
    Politicians say an awful lot in front of the media (see Project Fear and prior pro-#Brexit pronouncements of Cameron/Corbyn FYR). What really matters is how administrations/diplomats go about their business after-the-fact, largely away from the cameras. I'd encourage you to consider the distinction between the media circus and realpolitik

    If your neighbour decided to build the garden wall up a bit and stop paying your kid to dogsit for them would you turn your back on £120,000,000,000 worth of net goods trade just because (s)he hurt your feelings (when most of your population are burning for a referendum of their own)? Probably not, I'm guessing
    If it potentially means my children decide the neighbour has the right idea and start running away from home to live with him, then yes.

    I feel this analogy broke down somewhere.

    Realistically the EU needs to be seen to give the UK a hard time to stop the whole thing collapsing. Of course it needs to balance this with not cutting its nose off to spite its face and depriving itself of valuable trade.

    Apocalyptic scenarios are very unlikely, but expecting smooth sailing is equally ridiculous.
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    (Original post by Elivercury)
    If it potentially means my children decide the neighbour has the right idea and start running away from home to live with him, then yes
    According to Remain your children will be locked in their bedrooms fam :laugh:

    Realistically the EU needs to be seen to give the UK a hard time to stop the whole thing collapsing
    Correctamundo!

    it needs to balance this with not cutting its nose off to spite its face and depriving itself of valuable trade
    Watch how quickly all is forgiven, just watch! :hippie:

    Apocalyptic scenarios are very unlikely, but expecting smooth sailing is equally ridiculous
    Spot on
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    (Original post by Foo.mp3)
    Politicians say an awful lot in front of the media (see Project Fear and prior pro-#Brexit pronouncements of Cameron/Corbyn FYR). What really matters is how administrations/diplomats go about their business after-the-fact, largely away from the cameras. I'd encourage you to consider the distinction between the media circus and realpolitik

    If your neighbour decided to build the garden wall up a bit and stop paying your kid to dogsit for them would you turn your back on £120,000,000,000 worth of net goods trade just because (s)he hurt your feelings (when most of your population are burning for a referendum of their own)? Probably not, I'm guessing
    Yes. Yes they totally would.

    I refer again to my Scotland example. There are real reasons - democratic as well (there will be a lot of resentment among ordinary people) - to make life hard for us. Especially as, even if they are tempted by our trade, going soft on us could encourage other countries to leave the EU.

    It's not appealing to allow your non-dogsitting, wall-building neighbour to carry on as normal if it encourages your friends to think they can do the same with impunity.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    There are real reasons - democratic as well (there will be a lot of resentment among ordinary people) - to make life hard for us
    You appear to have confused legitimate, established Democratic mandate with transient, populist knee-jerk xenophobia in the context of hurt feels

    even if they are tempted by our trade, going soft on us could encourage other countries to leave the EU
    Again, you're confusing trading member nations, and their political leaders/economic advisors, with the EU executive. The later determine the precise legislature, over time, but it is the councils (of ministers and heads of state) that set the policy agenda/really exercise the power e.g. of veto, when it comes to such pivotal international issues

    It's not appealing to allow your non-dogsitting, wall-building neighbour to carry on as normal if it encourages your friends to think they can do the same with impunity
    No-one said it's terribly appealing but only a moron would cut their nose to spite their face and your proposition requires 27 nations to come together to do exactly that, at a time when Europe is on its knees. Simply not going to happen
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    (Original post by Foo.mp3)
    You appear to have confused legitimate, established Democratic mandate with transient, populist knee-jerk xenophobia in the context of hurt feels

    Again, you're confusing trading member nations, and their political leaders/economic advisors, with the EU executive. The later determine the precise legislature, over time, but it is the councils (of ministers and heads of state) that set the policy agenda/really exercise the power e.g. of veto, when it comes to such pivotal international issues
    Um, that's exactly my point. Member States will be making these negotiations, and they will not be in a mood to give us an easy time. We need them more than they need us.

    No-one said it's terribly appealing but only a moron would cut their nose to spite their face and your proposition requires 27 nations to come together to do exactly that, at a time when Europe is on its knees. Simply not going to happen
    Actually, it only takes one nation to disagree with the negotiating stance for it to come off the rails - not the other way round.

    From the EU's perspective, we must be made an example of. Even if they held no personal ill will (and that's unlikely, given the hate that Leave have invoked in this campaign), they are beholden to do so to keep the EU intact.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Um, that's exactly my point. Member States will be making these negotiations, and they will not be in a mood to give us an easy time. We need them more than they need us
    Granted, sometimes the likes of Merkel and Hollande behave like schoolkids but you're not living in the real world if you think their administrations will get behind seriously self-harming punitive policy. Some of these poor fools are but one crisis away from a lynch-mob as it is, have you turned on your TV lately!?

    Actually, it only takes one nation to disagree with the negotiating stance for it to come off the rails - not the other way round
    Depends on the setup e.g. if the EU and UK agree to an extension of treaty terms e.g. under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, until such time as all members are able to reach consensus then it'll be the other way round (by far and away the most likely scenario)
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    A simple proposition of shooting all idiots would help solve the problem
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    (Original post by dskinner)
    A simple proposition of shooting all idiots would help solve the problem
    I like this idea.
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    (Original post by IFoundWonderland)
    I like this idea.
    Me too, unfortunately people in general are just more opposed to keeping people alive than dead. Soon the world's resources will only be able to sustain x amount of people and once that limit's reached people must die.
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    (Original post by Foo.mp3)
    Granted, sometimes the likes of Merkel and Hollande behave like schoolkids but you're not living in the real world if you think their administrations will get behind seriously self-harming punitive policy. Some of these poor fools are but one crisis away from a lynch-mob as it is, have you turned on your TV lately!?
    Hah, European leaders are behaving like schoolkids. Not unlike our nice reasonable mature British leaders.

    Seriously, it's because of European instability that they need to take a hard line. Example to others. Give an inch to us and other groups elsewhere in Europe will demand a mile.

    Depends on the setup e.g. if the EU and UK agree to an extension of treaty terms e.g. under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, until such time as all members are able to reach consensus then it'll be the other way round (by far and away the most likely scenario)
    They can string the negotiations along as much as they want, yes, but it requires unanimity to agree to do so, and all you need is one country to lose patience (and patience is running out already) for it to fall apart.
 
 
 
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