Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    Stop taking economists at face value in regards to a #Brexit. This is anti-intellectual in and of itself, due to the disparaging attitude towards a rigorous methodology.

    Stop treating economic "facts" made by [economic] "experts"/economists as if they hold the same weight as facts given by scientists.

    An economic "fact" [read: prediction] like a Brexit would lead to an economic meltdown is speculation; an educated guess. Economic prediction deal with uncertainties; society isn't a controlled environment.
    .
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Whilst a scientific fact like the temperature at which ice melts under standard conditions; the temperature at which the solid and liquid phase are in thermodynamic equilibrium under standard conditions, has been reproduced in a controlled environment repeatedly. There has been a strict adherence to the scientific method, scepticism and scrutiny within the whole community.
    .
    Stop passing these forecasts off as fact when the outcome largely depends on the negotiations in a post-Brexit situation. A few too many assumptions...

    It's even hypocritical when articles on the Internet say this, yet mention these assumptions!

    Economists are informative; not decisive.

    Look at the extras:
    1. Economists have been [terribly] wrong.
    2. Economists can be biased.
    3. Economists [can] have [hidden] agendas; they're only human.
    Hence why the scrutiny is needed, and our scrutiny isn't worthless.
    .
    Spoiler:
    Show
    And please can no one bring up Schrödinger's cat in regards to the science, if at all relevant.
    .
    A part of the credit goes to the Reddit user technicolourbeat as he got mass down-voted for bringing up some of these points.

    ib_hopeful
    JordanL_
    the bear

    Ugh... my post has disgusting formatting, but I don't know how to reword it.

    Edit #1: I will say that this happens in the Brexit camp, but it's more predominant in the Bremain.
    Offline

    6
    ReputationRep:
    I also like how the Bremain side speak of the wisdom of "economic experts / The Bank of England", when the same people said that we would have to use the Euro or disaster would occur, and also did not predict the 2008 financial crisis and the recession that occurred.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    :bump:
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    jneill
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    :bump:
    I don't think it's reasonable to say that the economy WILL crash and burn if we leave. As you say, economics always has uncertainties. But it is reasonable to say that the evidence suggests we are likely to suffer negative economic consequences: the main argument is their severity. It is also reasonable, given that it weakened just based on polling, to say that it's near certain the value of the pound in your pocket will drop significantly if we leave - whilst we aren't in the circumstances to exploit that domestically, it would mean paying more for imported goods (such as a significant amount of the food we purchase), manifesting itself in increased inflation, and travelling abroad would become much more expensive.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by XcitingStuart)
    Stop taking economists at face value in regards to a #Brexit. This is anti-intellectual in and of itself, due to the disparaging attitude towards a rigorous methodology.
    Indeed. All the "experts" said that the UK had to go into the Exchange Rate Mechanism. That led to Black Wednesday and a devastating recession in the early 1990s.

    The so-called "experts" told Britain that it had to join the euro in the early 2000s or it would become completely isolated and miss out on numerous economic opportunities. That decision is not looking very sensible given the subsequent Eurozone crash and that to this day countries like Spain have a youth unemployment rate of around 50%.

    To the extent that some experts are worth listening to, I'd say former Bank of England governor Mervyn King is on the money in pointing out that the economic threat of Brexit has been wildly exaggerated

    There are understandable cultural reasons why economists, as middle-class academics, have for inclining toward the Remain position. There is a groupthink mentality at work, just as a groupthink mentality led almost all of them to fail to predict the 2008 crash
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    I don't think it's reasonable to say that the economy WILL crash and burn if we leave. As you say, economics always has uncertainties. But it is reasonable to say that the evidence suggests we are likely to suffer negative economic consequences: the main argument is their severity. It is also reasonable, given that it weakened just based on polling, to say that it's near certain the value of the pound in your pocket will drop significantly if we leave - whilst we aren't in the circumstances to exploit that domestically, it would mean paying more for imported goods (such as a significant amount of the food we purchase), manifesting itself in increased inflation, and travelling abroad would become much more expensive.
    My point is more aimed at those saying "why are the Brexit camp ignoring the experts?" as if we should take them solely at their word.

    Digressing a bit, but...

    Do you think the drop is short-term or long-term?

    And remember there would no longer be a Common External Tariff for us, under which comes the Common Agricultural Policy, which would increase competition (allowing non-EU farmers to have access to our market of 60 million) which would decrease food prices. Would this not offset any short-term inflation for food prices?

    And to be honest travelling abroad should not be a priority, in light of other things.

    Edit #1: for food prices* , under which comes the Common Agricultural Policy*
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    We never said it was economists alone. Yet that is what you focus on (and a narrow focus on forecasts at that) because 'economics is not a science'. Regardless of whether it's a science or not, it directly affects the people in this country.

    I get that you and your campaign like to discredit others, but this post is just desperate. You don't seem to be looking for mutual understanding, but for further division.

    I am sure my friends that you have mentioned agree with me.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by ib_hopeful)
    We never said it was economists alone. Yet that is what you focus on (and a narrow focus on forecasts at that) because 'economics is not a science'. Regardless of whether it's a science or not, it directly affects the people in this country.

    I get that you and your campaign like to discredit others, but this post is just desperate. You don't seem to be looking for mutual understanding, but for further division.

    I am sure my friends that you have mentioned agree with me.
    I'm criticising the way the Bremain camp is going about presenting their arguments; not the actual arguments themselves.

    You have lied through gritted teeth by doing it like this. (Though the Brexit camp isn't much better.)

    Posted from TSR Mobile
 
 
 
Reply
Submit reply
TSR Support Team

We have a brilliant team of more than 60 Support Team members looking after discussions on The Student Room, helping to make it a fun, safe and useful place to hang out.

Updated: June 24, 2016
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    Would you rather give up salt or pepper?
    Useful resources
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Write a reply...
    Reply
    Hide
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.