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Why Britain will leave the EU: people underestimate how conservative Britain is watch

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    The same thing happened during the election - Labour were preparing to enter a coalition and everyone was getting excited about the prospect of an alliance of the left-wing parties. Yet, the polls were wrong and Britain voted in a full Tory government.

    I think people underestimate how centre-right and conservative most of the UK is, which is why I think there will be a surprise leave vote on Thursday.

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    (Original post by Grand High Witch)
    The same thing happened during the election - Labour were preparing to enter a coalition and everyone was getting excited about the prospect of an alliance of the left-wing parties. Yet, the polls were wrong and Britain voted in a full Tory government.

    I think people underestimate how centre-right and conservative most of the UK is, which is why I think there will be a surprise leave vote on Thursday.

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    But leave is not necessarily a 'conservative' view
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    (Original post by Grand High Witch)
    The same thing happened during the election - Labour were preparing to enter a coalition and everyone was getting excited about the prospect of an alliance of the left-wing parties. Yet, the polls were wrong and Britain voted in a full Tory government.

    I think people underestimate how centre-right and conservative most of the UK is, which is why I think there will be a surprise leave vote on Thursday.

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    It was only a small underestimation. FPTP exaggerates support, in reality the Conservatives only got in because Labour were wiped out in Scotland and the Conservatives were second preference in the Lib Dem's heartland.
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    (Original post by TheAlphaParticle)
    But leave is not necessarily a 'conservative' view
    It mostly is.
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    The UK joined in '73 and had a referendum in '75... that's respectively 28 and 30 years after the end of WW2... though we'd been asking to get in since '63

    The UK has now been in for 43 years, if anything staying in is conservative (small c) and leaving is the radical option.

    TBH I think 'leave'ers like to think of themselves as the silent yet overwhelming majority but don't realise they spend their time banging on about the evils of Europe in single issue enclaves full of other 'leave'ers which they mistakenly think is a representative cross section of voters.
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    It will be very very close in my opinion
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    Leave is not conservative although people keep mistakenly making it seem so. There is nothing liberal about the EU

    I understand it has been mistakenly framed this way aided by the fact that controlling immigration seems to be a far right issue (Even though like 80% of the country put it as their number 1 concern)
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    (Original post by Grand High Witch)
    The same thing happened during the election - Labour were preparing to enter a coalition and everyone was getting excited about the prospect of an alliance of the left-wing parties. Yet, the polls were wrong and Britain voted in a full Tory government.

    I think people underestimate how centre-right and conservative most of the UK is, which is why I think there will be a surprise leave vote on Thursday.

    Views?
    I'd like to disagree. I think this boils down to a vote between voting for the status quo and voting for change. Many people don't have the confidence to vote for change, as was shown in the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum.

    We're probably more likely to vote to stay because it's a classic example of "better the devil you know"...
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    Shouldn't this really be "How conservative England is"?
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    (Original post by AnnieGakusei)
    I'd like to disagree. I think this boils down to a vote between voting for the status quo and voting for change. Many people don't have the confidence to vote for change, as was shown in the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum.

    We're probably more likely to vote to stay because it's a classic example of "better the devil you know"...
    I'd argue that Scottish independence was narrowly avoided by a series of last minute concessions and compromises to keep the union together (which incidentally they now feel they were shafted over, but that's an aside). The same isn't going to happen with the EU.

    But as you say, voting for the status quo is easier, particularly when the leave side haven't thought things through.
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    (Original post by Grand High Witch)
    I think people underestimate how centre-right and conservative most of the UK is, which is why I think there will be a surprise leave vote on Thursday.

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    If the UK is centre-right then why haven't the Conservatives' election results been better?

    The Tories have got a working majority of 12. Thats after Ed Miliband led Labour to their worst election in over 30 years.

    Before that, when Gordon Brown was Labour leader and we were coming off the worst recession since the 1930s, with the highest peacetime budget deficit, the Tories couldn't even win an overall majority, they had to go in to Coalition with the Lib Dems.

    Compare this to the three elections before, when Tony Blair won majorities of 179, 166 and 66.

    If we have a centre right country then when Labour are at a weak ebb as in recent years, why haven't the Conservatives been wiping them off the map? Labour seemed to find it quite easy to get large majorities.

    The last time the Conservatives won with a big majority was back in 1987.
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    (Original post by Elivercury)
    I'd argue that Scottish independence was narrowly avoided by a series of last minute concessions and compromises to keep the union together (which incidentally they now feel they were shafted over, but that's an aside). The same isn't going to happen with the EU.

    But as you say, voting for the status quo is easier, particularly when the leave side haven't thought things through.
    To be fair, it's kind of hard to think things through when it's literally impossible to predict exactly what's going to happen. Scotland was also massively split, just like the UK is now.

    Also, the Remain side aren't entirely blameless. Voicing reasonable concerns is fair, but when they're actually threatening the UK with "we'll implement this nasty policy and this nasty policy if you dare go against us" (which is what it can sound like sometimes), it causes a huge amount of unnecessary fear. I wish both sides would stop playing dirty to be honest.
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    (Original post by AnnieGakusei)
    Many people don't have the confidence to vote for change, as was shown in the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum.
    I don't think that is necessarily true. I voted for change in Tony Blair and look at how that turned out. The Scots voted for change in the SNP and yet a few years later we see the Tories making a come back. If any politician says they can bring change (for the better) they are basically lying. One thing that I have learned in the last 15 years is that:

    1. Despite what they would have us believe, politicians don't actually have that much influence on the economy / population;
    2. Bringing about change in any organisation is difficult. Bringing it into a country is near impossible;
    3. If significant change is achieved, it generally involves replacing one creaking system with a new creaking system whilst demoralising and demotivating the workforce who have to deliver that change - see Gove on education and Hunt on the NHS. Neither have actually improved anything. They have just created a shed load of work that benefits no one but their own egos and cost the tax payer millions.

    I guarantee that the folks who vote Brexit on the idea that they will see progressive change one way or the other will be bitterly disappointed by the outcome in a couple of years time.
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    (Original post by AnnieGakusei)
    To be fair, it's kind of hard to think things through when it's literally impossible to predict exactly what's going to happen. Scotland was also massively split, just like the UK is now.

    Also, the Remain side aren't entirely blameless. Voicing reasonable concerns is fair, but when they're actually threatening the UK with "we'll implement this nasty policy and this nasty policy if you dare go against us" (which is what it can sound like sometimes), it causes a huge amount of unnecessary fear. I wish both sides would stop playing dirty to be honest.
    Well the SNP had a better vision of what would happen than I think Leave do - what ultimately killed them was (ironically) the ambiguity over whether we'd still be part of europe and their indecision over currency. As you say though, no one has a crystal ball and there will always be divides between those willing to take a chance and those not.

    I fully agree the quality of both campaigns has been absolutely dire in this referendum. Remain are using ridiculous scare tactics and fighting a thoroughly negative campaign (much as they did with Scotland), whereas leave is preying on xenophobic and making ridiculous nonsensical claims about the future (not strictly a million miles away from the Yes campaign, but at least Yes was pretty positive).

    The sad thing is they've both ignored the elephant in the room which is ultimately the united nations of Europe. But hey ho, what do you expect when low hanging fruit is available?

    Incidentally I find myself in an odd situation as I voted yes for Scottish independence but am going to vote Remain on Thursday (short of some high quality debate changing my mind...unlikely).
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    If the UK is centre-right then why haven't the Conservatives' election results been better?

    The Tories have got a working majority of 12. Thats after Ed Miliband led Labour to their worst election in over 30 years.

    Before that, when Gordon Brown was Labour leader and we were coming off the worst recession since the 1930s, with the highest peacetime budget deficit, the Tories couldn't even win an overall majority, they had to go in to Coalition with the Lib Dems.

    Compare this to the three elections before, when Tony Blair won majorities of 179, 166 and 66.

    If we have a centre right country then when Labour are at a weak ebb as in recent years, why haven't the Conservatives been wiping them off the map? Labour seemed to find it quite easy to get large majorities.

    The last time the Conservatives won with a big majority was back in 1987.
    Probably because the Tories have not been far behind Labour in terms of unpopularity, yet were still voted in. Along with the swell of UKIP, this pretty much confirms that the UK is a majority centre-right country at the moment.
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    (Original post by Elivercury)
    whereas leave is preying on xenophobic
    You see, this is the bit I don't understand (not you lol, I mean the strange rhetoric of the Leave campaign). We can't stop immigration, nor is it desirable to. I like the thought of leaving the EU so we can have a meritocratic system by which we can invite people into the UK, rather than the current ascribed-by-nationality automatic right Europeans have - because I think it's fairer. What's wrong with having a system like Australia? Do people say it's xenophobic? Of course not; they need to have some control over their borders.

    My views don't have anything to do with xenophobia and it infuriates me that the Leave campaign is trying to appeal to backward-thinking Britain First supporters. Unlike the older generation, I like our multicultural society, and I would love to have diversity of people from Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and elsewhere, but with the EU that isn't going to happen if we can't really predict how many European people (who have priority) are going to want to work here.

    Basically, the xenophobia card the Leave campaign is holding is totally bizarre and it's being used as fuel by the Remainers to discredit those who disagree with them.
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    (Original post by jamestg)
    It was only a small underestimation. FPTP exaggerates support, in reality the Conservatives only got in because Labour were wiped out in Scotland and the Conservatives were second preference in the Lib Dem's heartland.
    Are you in or out?
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    (Original post by AnnieGakusei)
    You see, this is the bit I don't understand (not you lol, I mean the strange rhetoric of the Leave campaign). We can't stop immigration, nor is it desirable to. I like the thought of leaving the EU so we can have a meritocratic system by which we can invite people into the UK, rather than the current ascribed-by-nationality automatic right Europeans have - because I think it's fairer. What's wrong with having a system like Australia? Do people say it's xenophobic? Of course not; they need to have some control over their borders.

    My views don't have anything to do with xenophobia and it infuriates me that the Leave campaign is trying to appeal to backward-thinking Britain First supporters. Unlike the older generation, I like our multicultural society, and I would love to have diversity of people from Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and elsewhere, but with the EU that isn't going to happen if we can't really predict how many European people (who have priority) are going to want to work here.

    Basically, the xenophobia card the Leave campaign is holding is totally bizarre and it's being used as fuel by the Remainers to discredit those who disagree with them.
    The truth is that we do basically have a situation like Australia (although without the points), just not for the EU.

    I suggest that anyone who thinks our system weak has never tried to get into the UK as a migrant.

    Regarding EU migration, it has only been positive and we also have many Brits migrating abroad, so personally I have no issue with it.

    What I find truly bizarre is people insisting a vote to leave is a vote to block muslims from entering the country.
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    (Original post by Grand High Witch)
    The same thing happened during the election - Labour were preparing to enter a coalition and everyone was getting excited about the prospect of an alliance of the left-wing parties. Yet, the polls were wrong and Britain voted in a full Tory government.

    I think people underestimate how centre-right and conservative most of the UK is, which is why I think there will be a surprise leave vote on Thursday.

    Views?
    I think it will be very close and to be frankly honest I don't think I'll be very surprised with either result.

    Conservatives only won the 2015 election because of those pesky SNPs though
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    (Original post by TheAlphaParticle)
    But leave is not necessarily a 'conservative' view
    It's exactly the opposite

    I think that Remain will win by between 50-56%. Many people have yet to decide and the meat of them will instinctively want to preserve the status quo. While I support Leave I also have £400 on Remain so I'll be happy either way.
 
 
 

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