Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    The final Survation poll has put Leave back in the lead by 45% to Remain's 44%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Two days ago YouGov also had leave in the lead by 44% to 42%. I think what we can fairly say is that it's too close to call and probably a coin toss at this point.

    As a Leaver, I take some comfort from the knowledge that the demographic which has the strongest Leave lead (the elderly) are also the most likely to vote, and the demographic with the strongest remain lead (18-29s) is the least likely to vote. There is also a significant enthusiasm gap overall with people who vote lead more likely to be enthused and absolutely determined to take advantage of the one chance they're likely to have.
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    aaaaaah
    Offline

    16
    ReputationRep:
    Day of reckoning!
    Offline

    11
    ReputationRep:
    I've been following the Financial Times' Poll of Polls and it too has Leave back in the lead at 45/44.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Thutmose-III)
    The final Survation poll has put Leave back in the lead by 45% to Remain's 44%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Two days ago YouGov also had leave in the lead by 44% to 42%. I think what we can fairly say is that it's too close to call and probably a coin toss at this point.

    As a Leaver, I take some comfort from the knowledge that the demographic which has the strongest Leave lead (the elderly) are also the most likely to vote, and the demographic with the strongest remain lead (18-29s) is the least likely to vote. There is also a significant enthusiasm gap overall with people who vote lead more likely to be enthused and absolutely determined to take advantage of the one chance they're likely to have.
    I hope Leave win - although I think they weight the polls for demographics, differential turnout, etc.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by ODES_PDES)
    Day of reckoning!
    Indeed. If Leave does prevail, I can't wait to hear the wailing, the shrieking and the gnashing of the teeth from the euro elite. Juncker will probably flip out completely. Left liberals and the metropolitan elite will issue laughable threats to leave the country forever.

    But it will be a new day and a rebirth of freedom, I can't wait for the opportunity for this country to truly take its destiny in its own hands
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    you say potato i say pomme de terre.

    bear™ says

    Don't Pull Out...It Would Be Very Messy
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by frivolousfretter)
    I hope Leave win - although I think they weight the polls for demographics, differential turnout, etc.
    The weighting is inherently tricky and more an art than a science. For example, one of the polling agencies assigned 75% of "Don't knows" to the Remain vote, whereas in fact they might just not vote.

    Also self-reporting of likelihood to vote was found to be a poor measure in the 2015 polling. But we shall see, I think it's likely it will be very close but it's also possible the polling agencies will completely miss it and there will be a significant and substantial majority for Leave that they failed to detect. I very much doubt it could go the other way
 
 
 
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    What's your favourite Christmas sweets?
    Useful resources
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Quick reply
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.