EU 'foolish' to erect trade barriers against Britain.

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username2228735
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http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36596060

(Original post by BBC)
A German industry boss has said it would be "very, very foolish" if the EU imposes trade barriers on the UK in the event it votes to leave the EU..
Around 15% of British imports are from Germany alone (source) (Exports to the U.K. are 7.1% of Germany's total exports and is ranked in terms of volume).

I doubt Cecilia Malmström would make such an error.
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1420787
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And what percentage of total German exports is that?
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username2228735
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(Original post by offhegoes)
And what percentage of total German exports is that?
7.1% (source).
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1420787
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(Original post by Aceadria)
7.1% (source)
Then it really seems the 7.1% figure should be the one in your first post, not 15% as a percentage of UK imports.

That's not a huge amount considering the UK is likely to keep importing most of that even with some trade barriers in place and that Germany's interest in keeping the EU together is greater than their interest in exporting the 7.1% to the UK.

(Good job on going back and updating your original post, a clearer initial message allows for a more productive discussion )
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username2228735
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(Original post by offhegoes)
Then it really seems the 7.1% figure should be the one in your first post, not 15% as a percentage of UK imports.

That's not a huge amount considering the UK is likely to keep importing most of that even with some trade barriers in place and that Germany's interest in keeping the EU together is greater than their interest in exporting the 7.1% to the UK.
Large is a relative term. If you look at the figure in absolute terms, then it is indeed substantial and a real reduction in this amount would have negative effects on the economy; something not even Germany can afford.
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Joep95
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They would be foolish to do so because they will be fighting for the EU to survive not Britain fighting for its survival, many people have said the EU would struggle.
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username2228735
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(Original post by joecphillips)
They would be foolish to do so because they will be fighting for the EU to survive not Britain fighting for its survival, many people have said the EU would struggle.
Not entirely accurate. Britain remains a substantial trading partner, and one of the EU's largest employers. But the latter is not relevant to this thread.
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ohgeez
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Talk of putting up trade barriers is complete ********. It's just a scare tactic. I wouldn't vote on that basis alone.
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M14B
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If they put barriers, it will be their loss too in my opinion.
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Good bloke
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(Original post by offhegoes)
That's not a huge amount considering the UK is likely to keep importing most of that even with some trade barriers in place and that Germany's interest in keeping the EU together is greater than their interest in exporting the 7.1% to the UK.
Hmm The thing is that the German politicians want to keep the EU together, while the German industrialists want to keep their trade figures high (and say so in the link). Whose interests do you think will win?

The German politicians are just posturing on behalf of Cameron. The industrialists are giving the true picture
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Josb
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(Original post by Good bloke)
Hmm The thing is that the German politicians want to keep the EU together, while the German industrialists want to keep their trade figures high (and say so in the link). Whose interests do you think will win?

The German politicians are just posturing on behalf of Cameron. The industrialists are giving the true picture
This. There will be no tariff.
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(Original post by Josb)
This. There will be no tariff.
Our negotiating position should simply be to impose an equivalent tariff on our imports. The German car and white goods industries would soon lean on intransigent politicians.
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(Original post by Good bloke)
Hmm The thing is that the German politicians want to keep the EU together, while the German industrialists want to keep their trade figures high (and say so in the link). Whose interests do you think will win?

The German politicians are just posturing on behalf of Cameron. The industrialists are giving the true picture
But if the UK leaves the EU and is given trading conditions that compare favourably with what we had whilst in the EU, this is likely to encourage more referenda (or referendums, whichever you subscribe to) across the EU. The cost of imposing higher tariffs on the UK is potentially a lesser evil for German industrialists than allowing the EU to shrink further is.
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_Fergo
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(Original post by Josb)
This. There will be no tariff.
Of course there will be, like any other country which doesn't have a trading deal.

And if a trading deal does happen, it will defeat the point of leaving.

Posted from TSR Mobile
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(Original post by offhegoes)
But if the UK leaves the EU and is given trading conditions that compare favourably with what we had whilst in the EU, this is likely to encourage more referenda (or referendums, whichever you subscribe to) across the EU. The cost of imposing higher tariffs on the UK is potentially a lesser evil for German industrialists than allowing the EU to shrink further is.
Then the Germans will have a tricky choice: try to stem the tide of EU collapse or reduce exports to the UK and lose tax revenue and jobs.
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(Original post by *Stefan*)
And if a trading deal does happen, it will defeat the point of leaving.

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Not really. Do you think the Germans want the cars they currently export to the UK to be replaced by Japanese vehicles? I don't. It could even lead to major growth in the automotive industry in the UK as German imports are replaced by home-built alternatives on a wave of patriotic buying as Britain says "Up yours Delors" once again. Or perhaps "Get in the bunkers, Junckers!"
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_Fergo
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(Original post by Good bloke)
Not really. Do you think the Germans want the cars they currently export to the UK to be replaced by Japanese vehicles? I don't. It could even lead to major growth in the automotive industry in the UK as German imports are replaced by home-built alternatives on a wave of patriotic buying as Britain says "Up yours Delors" once again. Or perhaps "Get in the bunkers, Junckers!"
So, you expect the UK to get the best treatment available having left the EU at no price tag?

That would be to say that Switzerland, and not least Norway, are stupid.
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banterboy
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if we end up better than we did before the EU started, the EU will break up. It's absolutely in their interests to be punitive.
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(Original post by *Stefan*)
So, you expect the UK to get the best treatment available having left the EU at no price tag?
I din't say that. I merely said that the EU wiull get what they give. The UK is a net importer of £68 billion from the EU. If they want tariffs, let them have tariffs - they will be the net losers.

We are net exporters to non-EU countries to the tune of about £31 billion, tariffs or not. We can develop those links, agree free trade deals across the world and replace the EU imports.

The Germans seem unlikely to want to see their car exports being replaced by the Japanese.
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ohgeez
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(Original post by banterboy)
if we end up better than we did before the EU started, the EU will break up. It's absolutely in their interests to be punitive.
The EU does not speak with one voice. i.e. the voice of Schauble. They can't punish businesses who want to do trade with Britain without hurting themselves.
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