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    David Cameron has resigned, Corbyn is facing a vote of no confidence, Nicola Sturgeon is planning a second Scottish referendum and Ukip has succeeded in its main aim. What now for UK Politics?

    My thoughts

    Conservatives- the Tories are now fundamentally euro sceptic to the core. It is now almost inevitable that Boris will be PM with Gove as Deputy. There should be a hard eurosceptic cabinet although I imagine Theresa May staying in place and Sajid becoming Chancellor. Osborne is finished. He seems to think he'll remain as chancellor but that is nonsense. Pro remain Tories I think should either resign to the back benches or defect to the lib dems. All depending on what deal is reached - I suspect a Norway model

    Labour- This result has actually damaged labour more than the Tories and has exposed bare the difference between its UKIP esque supporters in more rural areas and social liberal supporters in urban areas, which is overwhelmingly represented in the HoC. UKIP is certainly now more of a labour problem in old strongholds. Flirting in the middle is no longer an option.

    UKIP- is also in a pickle. I do not think this is the end for UKIP as it is essentially an almost purely anti immigration party, which Brexit will not be the silver bullet for. I think we could see UKIP morphing into a UK Front Nationale as the Libertarian strands rejoin the Tories.

    Lib dems: largely dependentant on what happens to pro EU Tories or/ and labour. If things go badly for the brexiters they could turn into a real force (think Canada!) and possibly get us back into the EU as a pro EU reverse UKIP counter insurgency. Or alternatively they could be wiped out.

    Greens/ SNP/ Plaid- No change, but Stirgeon has proposed another Independence referendum and take up tthe UKs EU space. If she succeeds I cants see the Scott's staying.

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    I see I am no longer worthy of a tag :huff:


    It may not be very "politically correct" but when the impending doom comes I am going to hunt and eat old people to survive.


    Isn't the Norway model based on the fact Norway is very much a Social Democracy that wants to keep it's nationalised oil industry, hence staying out of the EU where that kind of thing is verboten. I'm not sure how that compares to our "knowledge economy" and financial dependence. Also we are more neoliberal than the EU, certainly no where near the social democratic nature of Norway.

    I also think Corbyn needs replacing. But not with anyone still hooked to the third way crap.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    I see I am no longer worthy of a tag :huff:


    It may not be very "politically correct" but when the impending doom comes I am going to hunt and eat old people to survive.
    Genuinely thought I'd put you on the list, sorry mate *hug*
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Genuinely thought I'd put you on the list, sorry mate *hug*
    I edited my post.

    I'm surprised why anyone wants my opinion. I am too lazy to make big long posts anymore. Unless of course you want lefty sound bites.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Lib dems: could possibly get us back into the EU
    This is the only part of your analysis that doesn't stack up. The rest is pretty much on point

    SNP: Stirgeon has proposed another Independence referendum and take up the UKs EU space. If she succeeds I cants see the Scott's staying
    This remains a 50:50, due to the costs, complexities, and uncertainties of exiting UK and joining EU, when Scotland is deep in the red financially, they can't keep the pound, and the Eurozone/EU will likely financially/politically collapse within the next few years as things stand
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    Looking towards the next election i don't think the Tories could dream of a more perfect result. If the Tories can elect as leader a moderate and euro-skeptic then what the people said last night in all kinds of Labour held marginals with the Tories is that if they go to places like Wrexham (majority just 3000) and campaign on immigration.. they could win. Not only that but what reason do Tory euro-skeptics need to vote Ukip for now.

    I don't think Scotland leaving is a sure thing, especially if Westminster learnt its lesson and sells the union instead of project fear.
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    What are the odds on Douglas Carswell going back to the Tories?
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Looking towards the next election i don't think the Tories could dream of a more perfect result. If the Tories can elect as leader a moderate and euro-skeptic then what the people said last night in all kinds of Labour held marginals with the Tories is that if they go to places like Wrexham (majority just 3000) and campaign on immigration.. they could win. Not only that but what reason do Tory euro-skeptics need to vote Ukip for now.
    In Wales and in the north I think they are still anti Tory and relatively left wing - so-called blue labour or red ukip. I think that whilst they'd welcome less immigration- theya,so wouldn't want free market policies either.


    I don't think Scotland leaving is a sure thing, especially if Westminster learnt its lesson and sells the union instead of project fear.
    Oh for sure, but I think it's far more likely. The Tories in Scotland were all staunchly remain, I don't think they'll take to the Tories and Labour are useless there.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    In Wales and in the north I think they are still anti Tory and relatively left wing - so-called blue labour or red ukip. I think that whilst they'd welcome less immigration- theya,so wouldn't want free market policies either.

    Oh for sure, but I think it's far more likely. The Tories in Scotland were all staunchly remain, I don't think they'll take to the Tories and Labour are useless there.
    Tories are doing very well in Wales, the labour majority across 4 constituencies in north east Wales is no bigger than 3000 now, they all voted for Brexit last night. North east and welsh valleys are still pretty anti-tory.
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    (Original post by Foo.mp3)
    This is the only part of your analysis that doesn't stack up
    . The rest is pretty much on point

    This remains a 50:50, due to the costs, complexities, and uncertainties of exiting UK and joining EU, when Scotland is deep in the red financially, they can't keep the pound, and the Eurozone/EU will likely financially/politically collapse within the next few years as things stand
    Thanks . The Lib dem point would be dependant on a worst case Brexit scenario and labour imploding.

    I don't think the EU will collapse (although admittedly, I didn't think the UK would leave...)
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    On gove asdeputy, i expect it will remain no formal deputy with Gove as foreign, might address the rest later
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    Apparently everything's fine and dandy because "we've taken back control"
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    I don't think the EU will collapse
    Why do you think EU leaders are holding crisis meetings and pretty much threatening the UK over serving notice and initiating Article 50 ASAP?
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    (Original post by Foo.mp3)
    Why do you think EU leaders are holding crisis meetings and pretty much threatening the UK over serving notice and initiating Article 50 ASAP?
    To prevent the EU from collapsing and to get rid of instability. I think they will be successful.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    I don't think the EU will collapse (although admittedly, I didn't think the UK would leave...)
    Now apply that to Trump.
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    On the Tory front, I agree that Osborne is probably toast and will be off on the same timetable as Cameron unless there's some remarkable change. Felt genuinely sorry about Cameron's departure - he's achieved a great deal, but he will be remembered for one of his big gambles that didn't pay off. He's right, he did face this issue head-on and muster all his passion behind it, but sometimes that isn't the most sensible move. It was naive.

    Labour are even more ****ed than they were before. I expect this will undermine their position in the few places that can still be called their heartlands. Corbyn remains a liability, but won't go without a full rebellion against him which, at this stage at least, doesn't seem to be happening.

    UKIP could well capitalise, especially in provincial England. But they're frankly pretty incompetent at the best of times. They need to rebrand to keep relevance, but could well do that when the Conservatives start proposing options which are everything-but-membership of the EU.

    The Scots Nats are once again unsteady in the face of events outside their control. They didn't want a second referendum, but made so much of this unlikely occurrence that their membership will be unlikely to let it rest. There are several problems with that--

    1. The UK Government could well refuse a referendum until at least a settlement is reached with the EU. It would be madness to have a referendum on the basis of leaving the EU when what we were negotiating in its place was not even remotely clear.

    2. The campaign fundamentally changes in ways the SNP won't like. If they call a referendum on this basis, it becomes about them defending EU membership. Over a third of their voters voted out, and even among many Remain voters. There's hardly a lot of passion for the EU, particularly if it seems the UK will get a decent deal.

    3. Voter fatigue plus an option of more change and uncertainty. Neither count in their favour.

    4. We end up with Nationalists fighting for fundamentally a hard-break with England. With the EU, separating from the UK was always hugely softened: no hard border, free movement guaranteed, free trade (let's not forget Scotland trades five times as much with the rest of UK as it does the EU put together), using the same currency. All of these things are pretty much out of the window now if Scotland leaves.

    5. The idea of maintaining opt-outs and all the advantages the UK gets as an EU member suddenly dies a death. New accession state, adopting the Euro, in Schengen, no share of the rebate (and probably the prospect of the "contributer" countries getting milked for more now that the UK isn't there).

    From a rational view, it's a harder sell for the SNP now. The problem is that people aren't always rational. Things will be clearer once people calm down a bit.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    To prevent the EU from collapsing and to get rid of instability
    Correct, and specifically to attempted mitigate the possibility of further referenda in Europe - a very real, and growing, threat in the current climate
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    The real question in all of this remains unanswered.. Post leadership election, is a civil war that's lasted 2 decades finally over for the Tories.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The real question in all of this remains unanswered.. Post leadership election, is a civil war that's lasted 2 decades finally over for the Tories.
    I think so, I'm yet to have heard a Tory mp who has acted like a child over not getting their own way like we have seen with the opposition parties; I think the party can now, for the most part, reconcile their differences because even with the odds stacked against them we've left, if it were the other way around I wouldn't be so certain, there has been no real betrayal here.

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    Our whole political system is up in the air now. We are firmly into an unpredictable and ever-changing era of politics; Donal Trump being elected, Jeremy Corbyn being elected, Bernie Sanders running close, Brexit and the huge economic and political uncertainty as to what happens next.

    I think anyone making cast iron predictions of what will or won't happen is kidding themselves.
 
 
 
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