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    It is now almost 2 week after Britain voted to leave the European Union. Despite the political changes and resistances, I wouldn’t say that these weren’t expected before the referendum (especially the protests). I think very soon the UK as a nation will move on and decide on the path we take to deliver the referendum’s instruction. In this post I want to explain my position as a leave voter on why the UK should delay leaving the EU.

    First of all, I just want to emphasise that I fully understand why many Leave voters prefer to exit the EU immediately. The reason is obvious, the sooner we invoke Article 50, the less chance that our parliament will backtrack on the referendum’s result. This is perfectly understandable given that some people are still campaigning against leaving, but one must consider the political landscape of the EU and the outside options in the current scenario. I still fully wants the UK to exit the EU, but I just want to give my perspective of the political chess game currently at play.

    It is now clear that the EU wants the UK to leave as soon as possible. In fact they have been desperately urging for the exit, from the statements (1) (2) they have made. A swift exit will be in the EU’s interest because this would allow the EU to impose difficulties on the UK and expend its remaining powers to punish and ‘deter’ more countries from leaving. As long the UK stays in the EU, the EU cannot impose punitive measures onto the UK. Although I highly doubt that the EU will act in this manner as it would further intensify Euroscepticism across the continent, we cannot ignore this possibility. Another reason is that by delaying our exit, this would allow us to join forces with countries such as France, the Netherlands and Italy which are now considering their own EU referendums. In my opinion we should wait for France or the Netherlands to finish their referendums before we leave the EU. If either chooses to leave, the UK’s exit will have far greater acceptance and recognition to the world, and this collective exit would prompt serious scrutiny on the EU’s credibility as a political union. The world’s economies will also be more inclined to accelerate trade agreements with the exiting countries, given the EU’s losing powers and the loss of two major economies in its union.

    The EU is in a tricky position right now. Its very survival relies on its ability to discourage further member states from leaving and to stop the Eurosceptic momentum. Whether the EU tries to make things difficult for the UK or not will both act against its favour. If the UK delay its exit, it would also greatly damage its position. Given the current trend, its refusal to reform will be the cause to its ultimate downfall. However I doubt that the EU will be able to reform itself enough, to the point of reversing Eurosceptic sentiments or the UK’s referendum’s result.

    From a Brexiter’s point of view, what we must be careful right now, is to not give the EU exactly what they want – a swift Brexit.
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    I generally agree. I think there's a lack of leadership and plan and also frankly a lack of capability to "go it alone" at the moment - we are seeing the problem with the lack of trade negotiators and the UK government needs expertise in EU and international law, economics, negotiating, in order to get it right. Unfortunately none of the 'plan' was based on Brexit and so over recent years key departments that will be doing this, like the Foreign office and Dept for Business have been handing out voluntary redundancy packages to experienced staff as part of a plan of making Whitehall smaller and so some expertise and capacity needs to be hired in quickly else we'll be at disadvantage.

    So before pressing the start switch, we need an effective Government in place, with a credible professional team of experts around it capable of doing this. The task is hard but the UK is generally good at things when it takes them seriously - look at how successful the London Olympics was, also we have a generally much better security services than other countries in the face of terrorism etc. But this was unexpected so we need a bit of time to be in a good place otherwise the EU will exploit a weak position.

    I think some of the rush from some Brexiters to "get cracking asap" is they fear what Blair said about the country keeping its options open in case the public mood shifts - they want to get the deal done and Britain out of the EU before any economic shock hits: if firms start pulling out of the UK and jobs start going and petrol/food prices start going up because of the falling pound then some of the enthusiasm for Leave may wane and whilst at the moment calls for a second referendum seem like remainers being in denial, in time the mood may shift.

    But as I see it now, I can't see this being undone. Parliament will vote it through because many MPs will fear being ousted by a UKIPer at the next election if they are in a Leave area and vote Remain. But the biggest reason I can't see it being undone is the mood in Europe. Juncker wants to punish the UK with a poor deal and drive us on the outside as a warning to others who may be tempted to leave. The French are positioning themselves to have extended influence in Europe and more leverage against Germany without the UK (despite the war rhetoric from the right wing about German dominance, the UK and Germany are reasonably close partners within the EU) and also want to get the City's business over to Paris.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    I generally agree. I think there's a lack of leadership and plan and also frankly a lack of capability to "go it alone" at the moment - we are seeing the problem with the lack of trade negotiators and the UK government needs expertise in EU and international law, economics, negotiating, in order to get it right. Unfortunately none of the 'plan' was based on Brexit and so over recent years key departments that will be doing this, like the Foreign office and Dept for Business have been handing out voluntary redundancy packages to experienced staff as part of a plan of making Whitehall smaller and so some expertise and capacity needs to be hired in quickly else we'll be at disadvantage.

    So before pressing the start switch, we need an effective Government in place, with a credible professional team of experts around it capable of doing this. The task is hard but the UK is generally good at things when it takes them seriously - look at how successful the London Olympics was, also we have a generally much better security services than other countries in the face of terrorism etc. But this was unexpected so we need a bit of time to be in a good place otherwise the EU will exploit a weak position.

    I think some of the rush from some Brexiters to "get cracking asap" is they fear what Blair said about the country keeping its options open in case the public mood shifts - they want to get the deal done and Britain out of the EU before any economic shock hits: if firms start pulling out of the UK and jobs start going and petrol/food prices start going up because of the falling pound then some of the enthusiasm for Leave may wane and whilst at the moment calls for a second referendum seem like remainers being in denial, in time the mood may shift.

    But as I see it now, I can't see this being undone. Parliament will vote it through because many MPs will fear being ousted by a UKIPer at the next election if they are in a Leave area and vote Remain. But the biggest reason I can't see it being undone is the mood in Europe. Juncker wants to punish the UK with a poor deal and drive us on the outside as a warning to others who may be tempted to leave. The French are positioning themselves to have extended influence in Europe and more leverage against Germany without the UK (despite the war rhetoric from the right wing about German dominance, the UK and Germany are reasonably close partners within the EU) and also want to get the City's business over to Paris.
    I wouldn't underestimate Euroscepticism in France. I think a good reference point on whether we should leave or further delay the exit, is Marine Le Pen's performance on the next presidential election, or at least the public opinion shortly before it. Even if Le Pen doesn't win, it would be a good indicator.
    I don't think we should delay Brexit for too long, but to the extent when we can see where the political tides in Europe is heading. This should be March to May next year.

    My personal expectation would be for Brexit to occur in mid-late 2017.
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    (Original post by CherishFreedom)
    It is now almost 2 week after Britain voted to leave the European Union. Despite the political changes and resistances, I wouldn’t say that these weren’t expected before the referendum (especially the protests). I think very soon the UK as a nation will move on and decide on the path we take to deliver the referendum’s instruction. In this post I want to explain my position as a leave voter on why the UK should delay leaving the EU.

    First of all, I just want to emphasise that I fully understand why many Leave voters prefer to exit the EU immediately. The reason is obvious, the sooner we invoke Article 50, the less chance that our parliament will backtrack on the referendum’s result. This is perfectly understandable given that some people are still campaigning against leaving, but one must consider the political landscape of the EU and the outside options in the current scenario. I still fully wants the UK to exit the EU, but I just want to give my perspective of the political chess game currently at play.

    It is now clear that the EU wants the UK to leave as soon as possible. In fact they have been desperately urging for the exit, from the statements (1) (2) they have made. A swift exit will be in the EU’s interest because this would allow the EU to impose difficulties on the UK and expend its remaining powers to punish and ‘deter’ more countries from leaving. As long the UK stays in the EU, the EU cannot impose punitive measures onto the UK. Although I highly doubt that the EU will act in this manner as it would further intensify Euroscepticism across the continent, we cannot ignore this possibility. Another reason is that by delaying our exit, this would allow us to join forces with countries such as France, the Netherlands and Italy which are now considering their own EU referendums. In my opinion we should wait for France or the Netherlands to finish their referendums before we leave the EU. If either chooses to leave, the UK’s exit will have far greater acceptance and recognition to the world, and this collective exit would prompt serious scrutiny on the EU’s credibility as a political union. The world’s economies will also be more inclined to accelerate trade agreements with the exiting countries, given the EU’s losing powers and the loss of two major economies in its union.

    The EU is in a tricky position right now. Its very survival relies on its ability to discourage further member states from leaving and to stop the Eurosceptic momentum. Whether the EU tries to make things difficult for the UK or not will both act against its favour. If the UK delay its exit, it would also greatly damage its position. Given the current trend, its refusal to reform will be the cause to its ultimate downfall. However I doubt that the EU will be able to reform itself enough, to the point of reversing Eurosceptic sentiments or the UK’s referendum’s result.

    From a Brexiter’s point of view, what we must be careful right now, is to not give the EU exactly what they want – a swift Brexit.
    We need a new Thatcher, not May, Andrea Leadson.
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    Plan:

    i) rearrange deckchairs.

    ii) tell band to strike up patriotic music

    iii) wait for collision
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    (Original post by CherishFreedom)
    It is now almost 2 week after Britain voted to leave the European Union. Despite the political changes and resistances, I wouldn’t say that these weren’t expected before the referendum (especially the protests). I think very soon the UK as a nation will move on and decide on the path we take to deliver the referendum’s instruction. In this post I want to explain my position as a leave voter on why the UK should delay leaving the EU.

    First of all, I just want to emphasise that I fully understand why many Leave voters prefer to exit the EU immediately. The reason is obvious, the sooner we invoke Article 50, the less chance that our parliament will backtrack on the referendum’s result. This is perfectly understandable given that some people are still campaigning against leaving, but one must consider the political landscape of the EU and the outside options in the current scenario. I still fully wants the UK to exit the EU, but I just want to give my perspective of the political chess game currently at play.

    It is now clear that the EU wants the UK to leave as soon as possible. In fact they have been desperately urging for the exit, from the statements (1) (2) they have made. A swift exit will be in the EU’s interest because this would allow the EU to impose difficulties on the UK and expend its remaining powers to punish and ‘deter’ more countries from leaving. As long the UK stays in the EU, the EU cannot impose punitive measures onto the UK. Although I highly doubt that the EU will act in this manner as it would further intensify Euroscepticism across the continent, we cannot ignore this possibility. Another reason is that by delaying our exit, this would allow us to join forces with countries such as France, the Netherlands and Italy which are now considering their own EU referendums. In my opinion we should wait for France or the Netherlands to finish their referendums before we leave the EU. If either chooses to leave, the UK’s exit will have far greater acceptance and recognition to the world, and this collective exit would prompt serious scrutiny on the EU’s credibility as a political union. The world’s economies will also be more inclined to accelerate trade agreements with the exiting countries, given the EU’s losing powers and the loss of two major economies in its union.

    The EU is in a tricky position right now. Its very survival relies on its ability to discourage further member states from leaving and to stop the Eurosceptic momentum. Whether the EU tries to make things difficult for the UK or not will both act against its favour. If the UK delay its exit, it would also greatly damage its position. Given the current trend, its refusal to reform will be the cause to its ultimate downfall. However I doubt that the EU will be able to reform itself enough, to the point of reversing Eurosceptic sentiments or the UK’s referendum’s result.

    From a Brexiter’s point of view, what we must be careful right now, is to not give the EU exactly what they want – a swift Brexit.
    I disagree, I think a swift Brexit is what would be good for us right now.

    Given the instability of the economy I don't think waiting around for other countries to make up their minds (which they may not even do) would really aid our situation. For the sake of keeping people investing in the UK I think it'd be far better for us to agree to a deal quickly, rather than be stuck in limbo for however many years with nobody knowing what is going to happen in the future.

    Even if they do leave we'd still have to negotiate an exit deal with what is left of the EU, so I don't see what benefit it would make to delay this. I recall some people saying prior to the vote that if we leave the EU will pander to all our needs, which it clearly hasn't. Why wouldn't the same thing be true if France or the Netherlands were to leave?
 
 
 
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