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    After having won the Conservative leadership with mass grassroots support, Angela Leadsom surprised commentators with holding a general election in October, after kicking out osbourne, mcloughin and Hammond and replacing them with Javid, Mogg and Baker ( a visibly frustrated Corbyn is jeered by The Tories after it is pointed out at PMs that the Tories have their second female leader and the first ethnic minority chancellor) . Leadsom plans on campaigning to remain in the single market but without freedom of movement (met with disbelief by among others, french Premier Hollande who vows it will not happen)

    . After surviving a leadership challenge, Corbyn after a series of confusing policy statements plans the exact opposite of Leadsom and in a final straw for many labour MPs, hints at having secretly voted Out at the EU referendum. New UK ip leader Steven Wolfe advocates an electoral pact with the conservatives and campaigns heavily in Wales and Northern england on a cuts to immigration ticket.

    With this, over a hundred labour MPs enter into formal talks with the liberal democrats who have also been in touch with a number of conservative MPs led by Anna Soubry. In early October a new Liberal party emerges after a Labour Party conference in which Corbyn advocates a manifesto including abolishing trident. A despondent Tom Watson resigns as Deputy Leader but hopes that coalition can be arranged. the new liberal party pledges to stand up for the 48% and remain in the EU. In response, Caroline Lucas joins the Labour Party and encourages the Green Party membership to do likewise, most of whom do.

    In the end, the relative stability of the Tory party wins the day, with 318 seats abetted by Ukip who have 27 seats and pledges support provided immigration is cut.

    Corbyns Labour Party suffered a gruelling election after a series of gaffes and the non-fatal stabbing of Tristram Hunt MP by a Momentum activist. Of their remaining MPs, only 93 remain.

    The SNP paradoxically suffers lower support but wins in all of Scotland 57 seats although with a low turn out and close competition from the Tories and Liberal parties.. Plaid and Northen Ireland remains almost entirely unchanged.

    The new liberal party suceeds where the SDP failed and come back with over 120 seats.

    Andrea leadsom triggers article 50 after some delay and a legal challenge and early attempts at negotiating her demands are not deemed fruitful. The Sun becomes Increasingly hostile to the EU regularly comparing Merkel to the Hitler almost daily, and Andrea Leadsom has repeatedly warned of deporting EU migrants unless her deal is agreed to, bringing harsh responses from leaders, particularly the new left wing Spanish administration.

    The new liberal party elects Its new leader Stella Creasy and offers a raft of new policies including PR, cannabis and prostitiution legalisation as well as reapplying to seek EU membership.

    After weeks of ill health, Jeremy Corbyn stands down and appoints John Mcdonnel his successor, who stands unopposed. More than half of the existing trade unions now back the liberal party.

    Ukip draw up a string of economically left wing policies and now far more resemble the national fronte party in France. Douglas Carswell resigns after two months and his seat is regained by tHe conservatives.
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    Nah.

    The true democratic socialist left will rise and this liberal corporatist ******** will be delivered the deathblow it deserves.

    Once the UK is officially out of the EU the key argument, immigration, will have been settled which will make UKIP irrelevant for many people. This is why Corbyn wants Article 50 submitted as soon as possible as there will be plenty of Old Labour voters in the heartlands up North and in Wales who will then switch their attention to things such as renationalising the railways, heavy investment and protection of the NHS and the backing of the trade unions.

    What we're seeing are the peasants of the country taking their country back step-by-step and the first step was to reclaim it from the corporatist racket that is the EU. However, those thinking that is the final destination are deluding themselves. This is a long drawn out revolt against the political and corporate elite that the working class have come to loathe.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Nah.

    The true democratic socialist left will rise and this liberal corporatist ******** will be delivered the deathblow it deserves.
    True socialism is internationalist.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    True socialism is internationalist.
    Not when corporations are pulling the strings which is the case in the globalised world.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    The true democratic socialist left will rise and this liberal corporatist ******** will be delivered the deathblow it deserves.
    You keep living in that fantasy world...
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    You keep living in that fantasy world...
    I remember being told the same thing about wanting to leave the EU about 5-6 years ago.......
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    lmao i cannot wait for the next GE, Corbyn will win 600 seats min.
    What you right wing idiots dont understand is that Labour lost the last GE because we weren't left wing enough, thats why the Conservatives won a majority but next time you dirty filthy bankers bonuses will be begging for death, nothing personnel kid.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    I remember being told the same thing about wanting to leave the EU about 5-6 years ago.......
    You being right in the past does not mean you will be right in the future about a completely unrelated event. Your vote has given more power to the people you hate. There is absolutely zero reason to believe that your socialist revolution is going to happen. It has never been further away.
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    This was a nice story. I enjoyed it. I hope you're psychic to an extent.
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    (Original post by ErniePicks)
    lmao i cannot wait for the next GE, Corbyn will win 600 seats min.
    What you right wing idiots dont understand is that Labour lost the last GE because we weren't left wing enough, thats why the Conservatives won a majority but next time you dirty filthy bankers bonuses will be begging for death, nothing personnel kid.
    Because the Conservatives were left wing enough? :/
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Nah.

    The true democratic socialist left will rise and this liberal corporatist ******** will be delivered the deathblow it deserves.

    Once the UK is officially out of the EU the key argument, immigration, will have been settled which will make UKIP irrelevant for many people. This is why Corbyn wants Article 50 submitted as soon as possible as there will be plenty of Old Labour voters in the heartlands up North and in Wales who will then switch their attention to things such as renationalising the railways, heavy investment and protection of the NHS and the backing of the trade unions.

    What we're seeing are the peasants of the country taking their country back step-by-step and the first step was to reclaim it from the corporatist racket that is the EU. However, those thinking that is the final destination are deluding themselves. This is a long drawn out revolt against the political and corporate elite that the working class have come to loathe.
    Somebody hasn't been paying attention. Look at Andrea Leadsom and of course Rupert Murdoch. This wSnt a peasants revolt but a war between differing establishments one side of which has the combined might of the Sun and the Mail and the Express whose tax exile owners are the very worst examples of the globalist elite most leave campaigners railed against. I think that the new deal put in place by Brexiters will exacerbate the problems the EU was blamed for.

    And no, the government of the day will find another scapegoat have no fear.
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    (Original post by Plagioclase)
    You being right in the past does not mean you will be right in the future about a completely unrelated event. Your vote has given more power to the people you hate. There is absolutely zero reason to believe that your socialist revolution is going to happen. It has never been further away.
    (Original post by Davij038)
    x
    That is your opinion. There is every reason to believe it will happen just as there was every reason to believe the UK would eventually leave the EU. Why do you think Corbyn wants to invoke Article 50 so much? Its because he knows that he can then ride the very working class anti-establishment wave that UKIP have done so well on. Change does not happen overnight and things will get worse before they get better, but nothing in life worth having comes easy.

    What do you think is going to happen? The political elite and media will bash Jeremy Corbyn much in the same way they bashed Farage and the peasants who got behind him and supported the leave vote. You will get exactly the same reaction as people will get behind Corbyn as he will come out with all the populist soundbites of investing in the NHS, building more schools, building more houses, protecting workers rights, renationalising the railways, etc.

    Every single time the establishment attack him it will have the reverse effect as people will get behind him and whip up support. The Tories being in power during the negotiation stage where **** is about to hit the fan is also a big win for the left because any **** up will be used against them in the run up to the election.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    That is your opinion. There is every reason to believe it will happen just as there was every reason to believe the UK would eventually leave the EU. Why do you think Corbyn wants to invoke Article 50 so much? Its because he knows that he can then ride the very working class anti-establishment wave that UKIP have done so well on. Change does not happen overnight and things will get worse before they get better, but nothing in life worth having comes easy.

    What do you think is going to happen? The political elite and media will bash Jeremy Corbyn much in the same way they bashed Farage and the peasants who got behind him and supported the leave vote. You will get exactly the same reaction as people will get behind Corbyn as he will come out with all the populist soundbites of investing in the NHS, building more schools, building more houses, protecting workers rights, renationalising the railways, etc.

    Every single time the establishment attack him it will have the reverse effect as people will get behind him and whip up support. The Tories being in power during the negotiation stage where **** is about to hit the fan is also a big win for the left because any **** up will be used against them in the run up to the election.
    Oh lawdy.

    Nigel Farage had The Sun, the Mail and the Express on his side for the EU. Jeremy Corbyn has the Socislist worker, who has been fighting the long fight for almost a century and has never been further from mainstream opinion.

    No doubt Corbyn thinks he can ride the economic fallout from brexit to a Socislist Britain. Corbyn supporters Varoufakis and Paul Mason amongst others have outlined that this is unlikely to be the case. The left does not survive in economic crises.
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    There will definitely be some interesting times ahead in British politics.

    If Leadsom becomes leader of the Conservatives, the basic problem she will face is whilst the Tory grassroots will have voted her in, she isn't really rated by the Parliamentary Party and there will be a lot of disgruntled Tory MPs who either think they, or their preferred candidate, are better suited to being leader than Leadsom. So there will be leaks going out to journalists about 'leadership challenges' and the like.

    Brexit will be a difficult time and there will be things that happen that need a strong government to ride through. During the early grinding years of austerity and flat growth, Cameron and Osborne had the cover of being a new government and people had only recently dumped Labour out of office, so they could claim Labour created this mess, we are sorting it. It becomes harder from here on, already 6 years after a Labour government, to pass on blame. Leadsom supported Brexit so she can't really blame Brexit and she can't blame Labour so she will have to suck up the blame and her "cheery optimistic vision" might sound good now but it will soon start to grate when things go wrong. In football terms its like the Roberto Martinez effect - talking of Champions League ambitions sound great at first but when you're dropping points to weak teams at home fans are less impressed with "taking the positives".

    I think if Leadsom becomes PM, unless she calls an election straight away, I think she'll struggle to remain PM until 2020.
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    The OP is an interesting fantasy however let me paint another picture..

    The Conservative members elect May over Leadsom, not by a significant margin but by a comfortable one (say 60-40). The UK leaves the EU in 2019 with some kind of EU immigration quota in return for the single market but free movement has ended, a cap exists. Her reign to 2020 is not especially eventful and she contends with a weak but not quite flat economy but the people approve of her more than not viewing her as a pretty safe pair of hands.

    Corbyn survives the leadership election but is wounded, after several months of public spats with a parliamentary party who won't obey him the combination of deselection and an approaching election mean that many grudgingly get in line as they realise they've lost.

    Ukip elect a new leader and move to the left as they aim to exploit Labour's weakness in the northern heartlands of Labour. The leak from the Tories largely stops but is still a danger than haunts the government. They lose councilors however as each year progresses with little polling movement.

    The Liberals make slow gains in council elections and the like but are hampered by the Greens.

    The result..

    As polling day approaches we see that the Conservatives after boundary reform are odds on to keep their government with an increased majority, the Conservative vote share increases a little to 38-39% with a few shock victories in Wales, Scotland and Manchester and Labour although pleasing their base and making some progress in the south,increasing their vote share in London are largely unable to cut through from the Midlands northward and lose a small amount of vote share with 29-30% of the vote as they go backward in Scotland, the north of England and Wales. Ukip although gaining a little in the north persist in not being able to take the Tory hearlands and poll around a similar to last time with the Liberals and Greens gaining slightly too.

    Moral of the story is that those dreaming of a great revolution will probably be dissapointed at the ballot box at least. The election in 2020 may see a new set of leaders but it will produce a largely 'as you were' result at a national level.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    Not when corporations are pulling the strings which is the case in the globalised world.
    Why do you think so many trots became neocons?

    I know you are just a troll but when capital is globalised then the socialist response to that is to globalise, as it has always been since the first international.

    What you want is national socialism with some xenophobia thrown in.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    I know you are just a troll
    On what basis? Why even enter discussion with me if I am a troll? Or maybe you're just an idiot making off the cuff remarks and playing a ridiculous game of petty oneupmanship because you do not actually know what you're talking about.
    What you want is national socialism with some xenophobia thrown in.
    No. What I want is a libertarian country, but thanks for putting words in my mouth you prized prat!

    In fact, in reality, I would not care the ideology as I do not subscribe to dogma, I'd prefer a country that debates each issue on its merit.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The OP is an interesting fantasy however let me paint another picture..
    Your scenario is quite feasible in the event of a May victory. The part where I think you may be being optimistic from a Conservative perspective is about the share of the vote. With a likely difficult 3 years ahead, where we will probably see rises in unemployment and inflation with continuing gradual reduction in public services and worsening availability of housing, it will be difficult for the Conservatives to expand their share of the vote. Most likely there will be a steady degradation of the Conservative vote. The saving grace for the Conservatives in 2020 will be the boundary changes and the fact that other parties are likely to split the non-Tory vote. There's even the possibility that they might make some unexpected wins as you say, in areas where a rise in UKIP or recovery of Lib Dems steals votes from Labour and the Tories narrowly win a first past the post contest. Against that the big threat to the Tories is of disgruntled Remainers in the seats the Tories took off Lib Dems in 2015, switching back to Lib Dems and reversing those gains. I think the Tory number of MPs should hold up but I'd be surprised if they increased their majority.

    UKIP could indeed win a few seats up north from Labour but you never know with UKIP post-Farage. Their organisation is a bit of a shambles, they fight each other and they don't have much funding especially now their Eurosceptic donors will probably have lost enthusiasm and would feel they had more leverage in the Brexit era by funding the Conservatives. The best thing for the Conservatives about UKIP is they might divert Labour's already meagre campaigning resources, to defending their own strongholds, rather than targeting Tory marginals. But I don't think UKIP would ever be a healthy coalition partner for the Conservatives now as they are likely to be a generally populist protectionist left wing movement.

    I think the Tories will probably get one more win in 2020 but in the longer term, the EU referendum could have inflicted some permanent damage on the Tories. One of the legacies of the Thatcher era was many areas in the north became toxic for Tories and it shrunk their potential electoral market. This caused major panic in the Blair era when Blair encroached on it and looked at one point like he may have driven the Tories out of existence. The Tories came back - but are fighting a much tighter ground now as shown by being in Coalition and a small majority at a time where Labour are at a historic weak point. The problem from the referendum is that amongst metropolitan Middle England remainers there may be long standing disillusionment towards Cameron and the Conservatives who they will blame as the Brexit party. This will include a lot of the kind of people that would have voted for Thatcher and Major and probably Cameron too. So there's a risk that the Tories may have lost these as well. There's a danger that London and the major cities become generally anti-Tory and this doesn't bode well for stable government in the long run - it may mean the next transfer of power leads to a generation of anti-Tory Coalition governments, with Labour and Lib Dems joining with Nationalists making now un-rejectable demands for independence referendums.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    Your scenario is quite feasible in the event of a May victory. The part where I think you may be being optimistic from a Conservative perspective is about the share of the vote. With a likely difficult 3 years ahead, where we will probably see rises in unemployment and inflation with continuing gradual reduction in public services and worsening availability of housing, it will be difficult for the Conservatives to expand their share of the vote. Most likely there will be a steady degradation of the Conservative vote. The saving grace for the Conservatives in 2020 will be the boundary changes and the fact that other parties are likely to split the non-Tory vote. There's even the possibility that they might make some unexpected wins as you say, in areas where a rise in UKIP or recovery of Lib Dems steals votes from Labour and the Tories narrowly win a first past the post contest. Against that the big threat to the Tories is of disgruntled Remainers in the seats the Tories took off Lib Dems in 2015, switching back to Lib Dems and reversing those gains. I think the Tory number of MPs should hold up but I'd be surprised if they increased their majority.

    UKIP could indeed win a few seats up north from Labour but you never know with UKIP post-Farage. Their organisation is a bit of a shambles, they fight each other and they don't have much funding especially now their Eurosceptic donors will probably have lost enthusiasm and would feel they had more leverage in the Brexit era by funding the Conservatives. The best thing for the Conservatives about UKIP is they might divert Labour's already meagre campaigning resources, to defending their own strongholds, rather than targeting Tory marginals. But I don't think UKIP would ever be a healthy coalition partner for the Conservatives now as they are likely to be a generally populist protectionist left wing movement.

    I think the Tories will probably get one more win in 2020 but in the longer term, the EU referendum could have inflicted some permanent damage on the Tories. One of the legacies of the Thatcher era was many areas in the north became toxic for Tories and it shrunk their potential electoral market. This caused major panic in the Blair era when Blair encroached on it and looked at one point like he may have driven the Tories out of existence. The Tories came back - but are fighting a much tighter ground now as shown by being in Coalition and a small majority at a time where Labour are at a historic weak point. The problem from the referendum is that amongst metropolitan Middle England remainers there may be long standing disillusionment towards Cameron and the Conservatives who they will blame as the Brexit party. This will include a lot of the kind of people that would have voted for Thatcher and Major and probably Cameron too. So there's a risk that the Tories may have lost these as well. There's a danger that London and the major cities become generally anti-Tory and this doesn't bode well for stable government in the long run - it may mean the next transfer of power leads to a generation of anti-Tory Coalition governments, with Labour and Lib Dems joining with Nationalists making now un-rejectable demands for independence referendums.
    Yeah. I must admit that i'm factoring in a Corbyn premium and a tad of a reasonable excuse over Brexit, hence i decided to stick with as you were but a nudge from Lab to Con. Yeah, that was also my thinking in keeping Ukip the same.

    The last point is interesting and certainly a possibility however it depends on people believing the EU to be as important an issue as the mass unemployment of the 80's was. While i can certainly believe that there are areas in London which love diversity so much they'd hate the Tories for it, it's hard to imagine that the cities outside view it as a secondary issue and so it won't get as much traction i feel. That said, the prospect of London becoming even more politically distinct from the rest of the country is far from a good thing.

    All in all i think the long term question resolves around whether the Labour party become much more anti-immigrant and protectionist or leave a swathe of England vulnerable and whether the Tories can sieze on the fact that the Bullingdon Boys are gone and move towards government for the nation instead of just having the rhetoric, in all the chaos they may never have a better time to rebrand. Truth be told the next 15 years are going to be pretty complicated and exciting politically, we saw the South West and South East vote for Leave on a smaller scale than expected so although Labour was betrayed on a larger scale, things are not exactly safe. We could well see the core of Tory support move away from the South East towards the Midlands and Labour's move from the North East to London.
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    Rakas21 possible, but if as we both agree Corbyn suceeds in The labour contest the tories will see no need to be pragmatic. Secondly, however half heartedly May backed remain and is the 'establishment' choice. Thirdly, grassroots especially the older voters will very much be pro Leadsom. She won't have Corbyn's mandate but I don't think she will be too far off.

    Hopefully Corbyn and Leadsom will be too much for the moderates and a new party based in the Stronger In campaign links will be formed.

    As Fraser Nelson says, in any normal contest May would have this in the bag- but things stopped being normal some time ago.
 
 
 
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