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    In 1983 Britain after few years of negotiations agreed to hand Hong Kong back to China in 1997 under 'One country and two systems.' This effectively made the former colony a fully autonomous reigon of China with the exception of defence and foriegn affairs. Macau which is a colony of Portugal was signed over only 2 years later under the same agreements with its SAR status expiring in 2049. On July the first Hong Hong celebrated 10 years as a SAR and according to the news with the exception of symbolic (Anything to do with the Brits) and administrative changes there territory changed little, although I believe there is revisions to the SAR's constitution and hence political reforms are delayed.

    However, what will happen when this agreement ends in 2047 and 2049? Will Beijing remove the status of the SARs and hence Hong Kong and Macau losing autonomy over the economy, laws, culture, langauages etc? Will Britain and Portugal have a say when the SAR status apporachs these dates?


    EDIT: the agreement for both SARs will exist for 50 years after handover.
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    (Original post by Tomharper)
    In 1983 Britain after few years of negotiations agreed to hand Hong Kong back to China in 1997 under 'One country and two systems.' This effectively made the former colony a fully autonomous reigon of China with the exception of defence and foriegn affairs. Macau which is a colony of Portugal was signed over only 2 years later under the same agreements with its SAR status expiring in 2049. On July the first Hong Hong celebrated 10 years as a SAR and according to the news with the exception of symbolic (Anything to do with the Brits) and administrative changes there territory changed little, although I believe there is revisions to the SAR's constitution and hence political reforms are delayed.

    However, what will happen when this agreement ends in 2047 and 2049? Will Beijing remove the status of the SARs and hence Hong Kong and Macau losing autonomy over the economy, laws, culture, langauages etc? Will Britain and Portugal have a say when the SAR status apporachs these dates?


    EDIT: the agreement for both SARs will exist for 50 years after handover.
    I guess that in 40 years time China may well be an awful lot more democratic, so this probably wont be an issue. If the worst happened Hong Kong and Macau could always declare independence from China.
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    (Original post by RK89)
    I guess that in 40 years time China may well be an awful lot more democratic, so this probably wont be an issue. If the worst happened Hong Kong and Macau could always declare independence from China.
    I don't see the latter working very well in their favour. China aren't exactly known for being fond of secessionist tendencies within their nation.
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    I imagine they'll continue to be milked like a very lucrative cash cow. If they are still economically useful, they'll probably be governed in the same way, perhaps with some minimal changes of authority.
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    (Original post by Lib North)
    I don't see the latter working very well in their favour. China aren't exactly known for being fond of secessionist tendencies within their nation.
    True, but Taiwan hasnt done too badly, in fact its more well off that mainland China.
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    (Original post by RK89)
    True, but Taiwan hasnt done too badly, in fact its more well off that mainland China.
    Ah, but Taiwan hasn't declared independence and if it did, it'd cause an enormous diplomatic incident.
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    (Original post by Lib North)
    Ah, but Taiwan hasn't declared independence and if it did, it'd cause an enormous diplomatic incident.
    It has declared independence in everything but name, really what it has done is a diplomatic paper move rather than anything else.
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    I don't think China will be noticeably democratic in 40 years' time, unless it's had some sort of major crisis that has forced change upon it. Consequently, what it does with Hong Kong and Macau is going to depend on the prevailing Party winds at the time.

    My hunch is to back Lib North and say that whatever else the Chinese Communist Party may have become by then, it's almost certainly not going to be stupid enough to destroy its two single most lucrative provinces (for their size). However, I wonder if "one country, two systems" might itself lead to change in China; the Party realises already that Hong Kong works just fine under the degenerate, decadent Capitalist yoke, and the same is true of Macau; so either they'll move to stamp out both, which gets less likely as time goes on, or they'll start to adopt more Capitalist elements into mainstream China. Which could potentially provide great benefits, both material and social.
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    Taiwan hasn't declared independence? Taiwan has not been part of PRC ever has it?
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    Taiwan hasn't declared independence? Taiwan has not been part of PRC ever has it?
    Taiwan is independent, and has been free of foriegn control since the end of the civil war and also has diplomatic ties with I think 20+ countries. However, most countries and international organisations don't see it as an independent country though or the real ruler of China (Taiwan still claims to be the legitamate ruler of the mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Mongolia according my my guide in Hong Kong.
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    However, I wonder if "one country, two systems" might itself lead to change in China;
    I think this is going to be the case. I remembered when I visited the Legco (the legislative) I remembered the guide telling me that democractic reforms were placed into the Basic Law (constitution) by Deng Xiaoping and China's parliament. I remembered him telling me that Hong Kong is may be a guinea pig for political reforms for the whole of China.
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    (Original post by happy cola)
    Taiwan hasn't declared independence? Taiwan has not been part of PRC ever has it?
    Politically, Taiwan's status is best described as "limbo". I personally support Taiwanese independence, but that's different.
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    Taiwan is a special case. It does not want to declare 'independence from China' because it sees itself as the last vestige of the legitimate rulership of China. After all, its official name is the Republic of China. However, for all purposes it is independent of the government of the PRC, and will continue to be.
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    (Original post by SolInvictus)
    Taiwan is a special case. It does not want to declare 'independence from China' because it sees itself as the last vestige of the legitimate rulership of China. After all, its official name is the Republic of China. However, for all purposes it is independent of the government of the PRC, and will continue to be.
    It might be more that it doesnt want to start a war between China and the USA, which obviously could escalate into WWIII if people started allying again. There is nothing to stop the ROC declaring independent from the Peoples ROC and still maintaining its claim to soveriegnty to the whole of China.
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    (Original post by RK89)
    It might be more that it doesnt want to start a war between China and the USA, which obviously could escalate into WWIII if people started allying again. There is nothing to stop the ROC declaring independent from the Peoples ROC and still maintaining its claim to soveriegnty to the whole of China.
    Do you honestly think that the United States will declare war on China if the latter 'invaded' Taiwan and assumed all sovereignty?

    I think you grossly overestimate the significance of Taiwan.
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    (Original post by -1984-)
    Do you honestly think that the United States will declare war on China if the latter 'invaded' Taiwan and assumed all sovereignty?

    I think you grossly overestimate the significance of Taiwan.
    Well the US is spoiling for a war with anyone it can find normally. The US has also threatened to act in such a fashion if China invaded at all.
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    Well the US is spoiling for a war with anyone it can find normally. The US has also threatened to act in such a fashion if China invaded at all
    I doubt the USA would want to enter another war with its military already quite stretched globally, especially against a country with the largest army in the world. I doubt China would invade either, I think theres too much at stake at the moment... I mean the CCP doesn't want war to halt its rapid economic growth and development or its control over the country.
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    (Original post by Tomharper)
    I doubt the USA would want to enter another war with its military already quite stretched globally, especially against a country with the largest army in the world. I doubt China would invade either, I think theres too much at stake at the moment... I mean the CCP doesn't want war to halt its rapid economic growth and development or its control over the country.
    Well there must be some other good reason that China doesnt just walk back and invade Taiwan, they must fear major reprecussions on some level otherwise they would have done it by now!
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    (Original post by RK89)
    Well the US is spoiling for a war with anyone it can find normally. The US has also threatened to act in such a fashion if China invaded at all.
    I think there's a difference between minor, defenceless states such as Iraq, Afghanistan on the one hand, and China, a bidding future superpower on the other.
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    (Original post by -1984-)
    I think there's a difference between minor, defenceless states such as Iraq, Afghanistan on the one hand, and China, a bidding future superpower on the other.
    Well do you think the US wants to be overtaken by China. If that happens it would be totally disasterous for the west. If China gave them an oppotunity for a war the US would and probably should take it up to finish them millitarily while they still can.
 
 
 
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