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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36841066

    In Markel speech saying " benefits for both UK and EU states will reach a deal that works for both "

    > Immigration, not cut off but reform highly likely.
    > No recession
    > Both sides have a say
    > Closer relations with Canada, USA, China, India coming.
    > More competition for workers = increase in wages (after we leave EU not at very beginning)
    Remainers, gg.
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    In Markel speech saying " benefits for both UK and EU states will reach a deal that works for both "
    And for the other side of the argument see the newspapers tomorrow after she has met with President Allende in Paris.
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    ARM has already gone to the Japanese.
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    Ofc they are going to work for something that suits both.

    1. > Immigration, not cut off but reform highly likely.

    This is a meaningless description by you. They have to decide at what level they are willing to accpet the free movement of people and then the EU have to decide whether its negotiable or not. Previous instances , then it has been non negotiable.


    2. > No recession

    Still based on forcasts, but if correct then we have already lost £21 billion, which is nearly the equicalent of the amount we pay to the EU. £150m v £161m per week.

    3. Both sides have a say

    Meaningless again. Ofc both sides have a say , thats why its bilateral negotiations.

    4. Closer relations with Canada, USA, China, India coming.

    Jam tomorrow. The new trade deals need to be in place by the time of Brexit and they need to be of benefit to us. A poor deal is worse than none at all.

    5. More competition for workers = increase in wages (after we leave EU not at very beginning)

    You simply dont know if there will be more competition as you dont know the state of the economy or what is agreed in respect of freedom of movement.
    Wage rises also brings downward pressure on competitiveness.

    All a bit premature and a flimsy argument by you. You will have to wait and see.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    Ofc they are going to work for something that suits both.

    1. > Immigration, not cut off but reform highly likely.

    This is a meaningless description by you. They have to decide at what level they are willing to accpet the free movement of people and then the EU have to decide whether its negotiable or not. Previous instances , then it has been non negotiable.


    2. > No recession

    Still based on forcasts, but if correct then we have already lost £21 billion, which is nearly the equicalent of the amount we pay to the EU. £150m v £161m per week.

    3. Both sides have a say

    Meaningless again. Ofc both sides have a say , thats why its bilateral negotiations.

    4. Closer relations with Canada, USA, China, India coming.

    Jam tomorrow. The new trade deals need to be in place by the time of Brexit and they need to be of benefit to us. A poor deal is worse than none at all.

    5. More competition for workers = increase in wages (after we leave EU not at very beginning)

    You simply dont know if there will be more competition as you dont know the state of the economy or what is agreed in respect of freedom of movement.
    Wage rises also brings downward pressure on competitiveness.

    All a bit premature and a flimsy argument by you. You will have to wait and see.
    1) No single market without it, also immigration will go down because our economy has joined the rest with lower growth/lower pound value

    2) Recession was predicted, when left just downgraded. The world isn't normal unhealthy growth all over, UK just joined them
    .
    3) May isn't weak like Cameron

    4) Closer ties because we not in EU, they already said they would like closer ties, infact China/India already want a trade deal.

    5) Yes, lower the pressure so they'll have high skilled workers in the jobs thats required.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    ARM has already gone to the Japanese.
    Putin has already gone to UK to find you.
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    Putin has already gone to UK to find you.
    I wish he did
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    (Original post by IYGB)
    I wish he did
    :rofl: I told him 2 forums ago... spam politics forum with posts about trying to rig remain, Putin be after him He had 2 warnings.
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    1) No single market without it, also immigration will go down because our economy has joined the rest with lower growth/lower pound value

    2) Recession was predicted, when left just downgraded. The world isn't normal unhealthy growth all over, UK just joined them
    .
    3) May isn't weak like Cameron

    4) Closer ties because we not in EU, they already said they would like closer ties, infact China/India already want a trade deal.

    5) Yes, lower the pressure so they'll have high skilled workers in the jobs thats required.
    Most of that is nonsensical.

    You will just have to wait and see because there isnt enough information abailable about what might happen.
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    From the article:

    it was clear that Germany would hold the "balance of power" in the negotiations to come and although Mrs Merkel did want to make the UK's departure work, the UK's "leverage had really faded" following the decision to leave. ...

    They have suggested no special exceptions can be made for Britain in terms of continued access to the EU's single market if, as Mrs May has insisted, the UK seeks controls on freedom of movement rules.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    ARM has already gone to the Japanese.
    To be fair that deal has been in the making for quite some time and would have gone ahead post-referendum if we had voted Remain. Although the weakening of the pound does make foreign takeovers easier in the future.
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    In conclusion, then, the UK will be worse off.
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    My comment to someone on reddit regarding Brexit, which is relevant:

    You mention George Osborne, and his claim that Brexit will "damage" the UK economy. You'll have noticed that after the vote George Osborne was nowhere to be seen, his claim that harsher austerity measures would take place immediately upon Brexit, was simply a lie. George Osborne also claimed that leaving the European Union would entail higher taxes, too - this was a lie. George Osborne, like many politicians during the campaign used a tactic called "scaremongering", we all know that it entails the use of scare tactics to sway public opinion, it did not work. It was clear after we voted Leave, that there would be no 'Brexit Budget' of the sort.

    You go onto give a link of the United Kingdom's growth rate, though it doesn't entail any new information, as we are not fully through the second quarter, therefore the initial impact of leaving the European Union is yet to be seen, though, I see that you have given me a link to previous growth, which you say is a link to "shrinking export and direct investment" - that is not the truth, as there are no forecasts currently for the Q2. It is a fact though that the UK is one of the largest importers in the world, we import £600 billion worth of goods annually in 2015, a large proportion of what the UK imports comes from Germany, this means that Germany will want to ensure any deal with the UK runs smoothly. The United Kingdom means a lot to the EU, trade wise, we are extremely important. The United Kingdom runs a trade deficit, we import more than we export. The United Kingdom is a integrally vital artery for the EU, this means we will get a free-trade agreement, we may even join an EEA > EFTA type agreement, this benefits the EU and the UK. Though, mostly importantly the UK will get to set its own trade deals, which is what I'll cover shorty. Here is a blog outlining a transition from the EU to an EEA > EFTA agreement. This will ensure the UK has open-access to the single market, though without the EU bureaucracy that tangles the UK.

    Furthermore, it is quite apparent that some of the most successful countries in Europe are not within the EU. The European Union hasn't stopped Norway or Switzerland from developing economic ties with the EU via EFTA or EEA. These countries have tactfully made sure that their sovereignty is in tact, yet have access to the free-market and still have FDI. In fact, Switzerland is in the top ten of countries with Foreign Direct Investment stock - it is not in the EU. My direct rebuttal to your point on FDI is simple, if Switzerland can retain FDI, the UK will, I can reinforce this point with two examples: Recently the UK has seen investment from Santander and the UK has seen a £3 billion investment from Boeing after brexit - this illustrates these companies have confidence to invest within the United Kingdom, they see that the UK is resilient and will be stronger after Brexit. The EU isn't the foundations of the UK economy, the United Kingdom is.

    As you'll know with your economics degree, market volatility during political turbulence is normal, these unprecedented times of the UK leaving the EU will make the pound slump, though The pound reached a post Brexit high of 1.3480, it looks like the pound will continue to recover. Political uncertainty not good, though to suggest that this will have a long term detrimental impact on GBP and the UK economy is wrong, as knee-jerk forecasts will assume the worst, though clearly the UK will forge a new relationship with the EU and the world, in the long-term it will prosper as it isn't strangled by EU regulation, which means it can adopt trade agreements with countries like Canadaor Australia - in fact, numerous countries are lining up to divulge in a market of over 65 million people.

    Evidently, it is clear that the number of EU nationals in the United Kingdom is far greater than UK citizens in the EU - in fact there are as the source states, 3 million EU nationals living in the United Kingdom, and 1.2 UK citizens in the EU. This means that we hold the cards, it is basic politics, they have more to lose than we do. The regulations and rules surrounding immigration will be for the EU and UK to decide, though clearly with the UK holding a far greater proportion of EU nationals that UK citizens in the EU - it is quite apparent that the UK will find itself with a good deal on immigration, while having access to the free market, and at the same time gaining regulations on EU immigration. If there us an influx of EU migration to the UK, then this could also entail emergency legislation, as the Secretary of state for Exiting the European Union has mentioned.

    Also, you claim that the UK will somehow diverge from its Human Rights, the UK has a long tradition of Human Rights and is a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights, this is not going to change. The UK has Human Rights legislation dating back before the EU existed. You also claim that the UK is "alone", the UK has opted to leave a mass bureaucratic political union, it is now going to join the rest of the world. Your view that the UK us going it alone is quite absurd, the UK is going global. This country founded parliamentary democracy, it will never turns its back on giving people their rights. The Human Rights Act 1998 is another matter.

    In conclusion, you have gave no real argument to suggest the UK will decline, in fact I have argued the opposite and set out numerous examples. In that the United Kingdom is traditionally a strong exporting nation, it shares culture and links throughout the world. Foreign investors have done deals after brexit, they will continue long into the future. As the terms of our exit comes clear, the UK will lead a successful withdrawal, from a corrupt EU that the UK has never really been part of. The UK will remain a vast financial centre, strong import and exporter to the world - exiting the EU will not hamper its trade, as proven the EU has more to lose than the UK does, in terms of a Brexit.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    From the article:

    it was clear that Germany would hold the "balance of power" in the negotiations to come and although Mrs Merkel did want to make the UK's departure work, the UK's "leverage had really faded" following the decision to leave. ...

    They have suggested no special exceptions can be made for Britain in terms of continued access to the EU's single market if, as Mrs May has insisted, the UK seeks controls on freedom of movement rules.
    But reformed.
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    (Original post by lavalamp10)
    My comment to someone on reddit regarding Brexit, which is relevant:

    You mention George Osborne, and his claim that Brexit will "damage" the UK economy. You'll have noticed that after the vote George Osborne was nowhere to be seen, his claim that harsher austerity measures would take place immediately upon Brexit, was simply a lie. George Osborne also claimed that leaving the European Union would entail higher taxes, too - this was a lie. George Osborne, like many politicians during the campaign used a tactic called "scaremongering", we all know that it entails the use of scare tactics to sway public opinion, it did not work. It was clear after we voted Leave, that there would be no 'Brexit Budget' of the sort.

    You go onto give a link of the United Kingdom's growth rate, though it doesn't entail any new information, as we are not fully through the second quarter, therefore the initial impact of leaving the European Union is yet to be seen, though, I see that you have given me a link to previous growth, which you say is a link to "shrinking export and direct investment" - that is not the truth, as there are no forecasts currently for the Q2. It is a fact though that the UK is one of the largest importers in the world, we import £600 billion worth of goods annually in 2015, a large proportion of what the UK imports comes from Germany, this means that Germany will want to ensure any deal with the UK runs smoothly. The United Kingdom means a lot to the EU, trade wise, we are extremely important. The United Kingdom runs a trade deficit, we import more than we export. The United Kingdom is a integrally vital artery for the EU, this means we will get a free-trade agreement, we may even join an EEA > EFTA type agreement, this benefits the EU and the UK. Though, mostly importantly the UK will get to set its own trade deals, which is what I'll cover shorty. Here is a blog outlining a transition from the EU to an EEA > EFTA agreement. This will ensure the UK has open-access to the single market, though without the EU bureaucracy that tangles the UK.

    Furthermore, it is quite apparent that some of the most successful countries in Europe are not within the EU. The European Union hasn't stopped Norway or Switzerland from developing economic ties with the EU via EFTA or EEA. These countries have tactfully made sure that their sovereignty is in tact, yet have access to the free-market and still have FDI. In fact, Switzerland is in the top ten of countries with Foreign Direct Investment stock - it is not in the EU. My direct rebuttal to your point on FDI is simple, if Switzerland can retain FDI, the UK will, I can reinforce this point with two examples: Recently the UK has seen investment from Santander and the UK has seen a £3 billion investment from Boeing after brexit - this illustrates these companies have confidence to invest within the United Kingdom, they see that the UK is resilient and will be stronger after Brexit. The EU isn't the foundations of the UK economy, the United Kingdom is.

    As you'll know with your economics degree, market volatility during political turbulence is normal, these unprecedented times of the UK leaving the EU will make the pound slump, though The pound reached a post Brexit high of 1.3480, it looks like the pound will continue to recover. Political uncertainty not good, though to suggest that this will have a long term detrimental impact on GBP and the UK economy is wrong, as knee-jerk forecasts will assume the worst, though clearly the UK will forge a new relationship with the EU and the world, in the long-term it will prosper as it isn't strangled by EU regulation, which means it can adopt trade agreements with countries like Canadaor Australia - in fact, numerous countries are lining up to divulge in a market of over 65 million people.

    Evidently, it is clear that the number of EU nationals in the United Kingdom is far greater than UK citizens in the EU - in fact there are as the source states, 3 million EU nationals living in the United Kingdom, and 1.2 UK citizens in the EU. This means that we hold the cards, it is basic politics, they have more to lose than we do. The regulations and rules surrounding immigration will be for the EU and UK to decide, though clearly with the UK holding a far greater proportion of EU nationals that UK citizens in the EU - it is quite apparent that the UK will find itself with a good deal on immigration, while having access to the free market, and at the same time gaining regulations on EU immigration. If there us an influx of EU migration to the UK, then this could also entail emergency legislation, as the Secretary of state for Exiting the European Union has mentioned.

    Also, you claim that the UK will somehow diverge from its Human Rights, the UK has a long tradition of Human Rights and is a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights, this is not going to change. The UK has Human Rights legislation dating back before the EU existed. You also claim that the UK is "alone", the UK has opted to leave a mass bureaucratic political union, it is now going to join the rest of the world. Your view that the UK us going it alone is quite absurd, the UK is going global. This country founded parliamentary democracy, it will never turns its back on giving people their rights. The Human Rights Act 1998 is another matter.

    In conclusion, you have gave no real argument to suggest the UK will decline, in fact I have argued the opposite and set out numerous examples. In that the United Kingdom is traditionally a strong exporting nation, it shares culture and links throughout the world. Foreign investors have done deals after brexit, they will continue long into the future. As the terms of our exit comes clear, the UK will lead a successful withdrawal, from a corrupt EU that the UK has never really been part of. The UK will remain a vast financial centre, strong import and exporter to the world - exiting the EU will not hamper its trade, as proven the EU has more to lose than the UK does, in terms of a Brexit.
    I got bored after 1 line.
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    (Original post by lavalamp10)
    Here is a blog outlining a transition from the EU to an EEA > EFTA agreement. This will ensure the UK has open-access to the single market, though without the EU bureaucracy that tangles the UK.

    Furthermore, it is quite apparent that some of the most successful countries in Europe are not within the EU. The European Union hasn't stopped Norway or Switzerland from developing economic ties with the EU via EFTA or EEA. These countries have tactfully made sure that their sovereignty is in tact, yet have access to the free-market and still have FDI. In fact, Switzerland is in the top ten of countries with Foreign Direct Investment stock - it is not in the EU. My direct rebuttal to your point on FDI is simple, if Switzerland can retain FDI, the UK will, I can reinforce this point with two examples: Recently the UK has seen investment from Santander and the UK has seen a £3 billion investment from Boeing after brexit - this illustrates these companies have confidence to invest within the United Kingdom, they see that the UK is resilient and will be stronger after Brexit. The EU isn't the foundations of the UK economy, the United Kingdom is.
    *CLAXXON* wrong! EEA or Switzerland-style agreement means losing sovereignty and being subject to EU bureaucracy. Your claim about this bureaucracy 'tangling' the UK needs evidence.

    As you'll know with your economics degree, market volatility during political turbulence is normal, these unprecedented times of the UK leaving the EU will make the pound slump, though The pound reached a post Brexit high of 1.3480, it looks like the pound will continue to recover. Political uncertainty not good, though to suggest that this will have a long term detrimental impact on GBP and the UK economy is wrong, as knee-jerk forecasts will assume the worst, though clearly the UK will forge a new relationship with the EU and the world, in the long-term it will prosper as it isn't strangled by EU regulation,
    This entirely depends on what post-EU deal we have. It is almost certain we will have an arrangement of some sort where at least some fields of UK policy are set at Brussels but no longer decided by UK politicians participating - environment and climate change policy are obvious, for example.

    It's that hope and expectation that Brexit will be light-touch rather than a full-on, hard-landing withdrawal from all things EU which is softening the current economic downturn. If we went full Brexit -for 'sovereignty' - expect the bottom to fall out.

    Evidently, it is clear that the number of EU nationals in the United Kingdom is far greater than UK citizens in the EU - in fact there are as the source states, 3 million EU nationals living in the United Kingdom, and 1.2 UK citizens in the EU. This means that we hold the cards, it is basic politics, they have more to lose than we do. The regulations and rules surrounding immigration will be for the EU and UK to decide, though clearly with the UK holding a far greater proportion of EU nationals that UK citizens in the EU - it is quite apparent that the UK will find itself with a good deal on immigration, while having access to the free market, and at the same time gaining regulations on EU immigration. If there us an influx of EU migration to the UK, then this could also entail emergency legislation, as the Secretary of state for Exiting the European Union has mentioned.
    We shall see. The idea of using human beings are bargaining chips is one of the lowest things in my view, and the Commons was right to condemn it a few weeks ago. But I don't agree that any kind of advantage is with the UK. The EU's governments are fully prepared to let some of their citizens in the UK suffer in the interests of stopping the UK getting a generous Brexit deal.

    Also, you claim that the UK will somehow diverge from its Human Rights, the UK has a long tradition of Human Rights and is a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights, this is not going to change.
    Even with Theresa May having advocated withdrawal?

    the UK has opted to leave a mass bureaucratic political union,
    [citation needed]

    Much of that bureaucracy leads to the efficiency of the Single Market. And if we keep access to that, we will be subject to that bureaucracy without any policy influence.

    In conclusion, you have gave no real argument to suggest the UK will decline, in fact I have argued the opposite and set out numerous examples. In that the United Kingdom is traditionally a strong exporting nation, it shares culture and links throughout the world. Foreign investors have done deals after brexit, they will continue long into the future. As the terms of our exit comes clear, the UK will lead a successful withdrawal, from a corrupt EU that the UK has never really been part of. The UK will remain a vast financial centre, strong import and exporter to the world - exiting the EU will not hamper its trade, as proven the EU has more to lose than the UK does, in terms of a Brexit.
    This really depends on Brexit being as soft as possible. A hard Brexit will punch the living daylights out of the economy.
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    (Original post by lavalamp10)
    My comment to someone on reddit regarding Brexit, which is relevant:

    You mention George Osborne, and his claim that Brexit will "damage" the UK economy. You'll have noticed that after the vote George Osborne was nowhere to be seen, his claim that harsher austerity measures would take place immediately upon Brexit, was simply a lie. George Osborne also claimed that leaving the European Union would entail higher taxes, too - this was a lie. George Osborne, like many politicians during the campaign used a tactic called "scaremongering", we all know that it entails the use of scare tactics to sway public opinion, it did not work. It was clear after we voted Leave, that there would be no 'Brexit Budget' of the sort.

    You go onto give a link of the United Kingdom's growth rate, though it doesn't entail any new information, as we are not fully through the second quarter, therefore the initial impact of leaving the European Union is yet to be seen, though, I see that you have given me a link to previous growth, which you say is a link to "shrinking export and direct investment" - that is not the truth, as there are no forecasts currently for the Q2. It is a fact though that the UK is one of the largest importers in the world, we import £600 billion worth of goods annually in 2015, a large proportion of what the UK imports comes from Germany, this means that Germany will want to ensure any deal with the UK runs smoothly. The United Kingdom means a lot to the EU, trade wise, we are extremely important. The United Kingdom runs a trade deficit, we import more than we export. The United Kingdom is a integrally vital artery for the EU, this means we will get a free-trade agreement, we may even join an EEA > EFTA type agreement, this benefits the EU and the UK. Though, mostly importantly the UK will get to set its own trade deals, which is what I'll cover shorty. Here is a blog outlining a transition from the EU to an EEA > EFTA agreement. This will ensure the UK has open-access to the single market, though without the EU bureaucracy that tangles the UK.

    Furthermore, it is quite apparent that some of the most successful countries in Europe are not within the EU. The European Union hasn't stopped Norway or Switzerland from developing economic ties with the EU via EFTA or EEA. These countries have tactfully made sure that their sovereignty is in tact, yet have access to the free-market and still have FDI. In fact, Switzerland is in the top ten of countries with Foreign Direct Investment stock - it is not in the EU. My direct rebuttal to your point on FDI is simple, if Switzerland can retain FDI, the UK will, I can reinforce this point with two examples: Recently the UK has seen investment from Santander and the UK has seen a £3 billion investment from Boeing after brexit - this illustrates these companies have confidence to invest within the United Kingdom, they see that the UK is resilient and will be stronger after Brexit. The EU isn't the foundations of the UK economy, the United Kingdom is.

    As you'll know with your economics degree, market volatility during political turbulence is normal, these unprecedented times of the UK leaving the EU will make the pound slump, though The pound reached a post Brexit high of 1.3480, it looks like the pound will continue to recover. Political uncertainty not good, though to suggest that this will have a long term detrimental impact on GBP and the UK economy is wrong, as knee-jerk forecasts will assume the worst, though clearly the UK will forge a new relationship with the EU and the world, in the long-term it will prosper as it isn't strangled by EU regulation, which means it can adopt trade agreements with countries like Canadaor Australia - in fact, numerous countries are lining up to divulge in a market of over 65 million people.

    Evidently, it is clear that the number of EU nationals in the United Kingdom is far greater than UK citizens in the EU - in fact there are as the source states, 3 million EU nationals living in the United Kingdom, and 1.2 UK citizens in the EU. This means that we hold the cards, it is basic politics, they have more to lose than we do. The regulations and rules surrounding immigration will be for the EU and UK to decide, though clearly with the UK holding a far greater proportion of EU nationals that UK citizens in the EU - it is quite apparent that the UK will find itself with a good deal on immigration, while having access to the free market, and at the same time gaining regulations on EU immigration. If there us an influx of EU migration to the UK, then this could also entail emergency legislation, as the Secretary of state for Exiting the European Union has mentioned.

    Also, you claim that the UK will somehow diverge from its Human Rights, the UK has a long tradition of Human Rights and is a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights, this is not going to change. The UK has Human Rights legislation dating back before the EU existed. You also claim that the UK is "alone", the UK has opted to leave a mass bureaucratic political union, it is now going to join the rest of the world. Your view that the UK us going it alone is quite absurd, the UK is going global. This country founded parliamentary democracy, it will never turns its back on giving people their rights. The Human Rights Act 1998 is another matter.

    In conclusion, you have gave no real argument to suggest the UK will decline, in fact I have argued the opposite and set out numerous examples. In that the United Kingdom is traditionally a strong exporting nation, it shares culture and links throughout the world. Foreign investors have done deals after brexit, they will continue long into the future. As the terms of our exit comes clear, the UK will lead a successful withdrawal, from a corrupt EU that the UK has never really been part of. The UK will remain a vast financial centre, strong import and exporter to the world - exiting the EU will not hamper its trade, as proven the EU has more to lose than the UK does, in terms of a Brexit.
    You also have to take into account the size of the EU economy relative to the British economy. Yes, the EU exports much more to the UK than the UK exports to it but the EU's exports to the UK only account for about 8% of it's exports whilst the UK's exports to the EU are 44% of the UK total. Yes I can accept that there would be particular countries which would get hit if a trade barriers where put up (particularly the major countries which are also in close proximity to the UK like Germany and France which send 7.1% and 4.1% of their total exports to the UK respectively) but the UK as whole would take a much bigger hit as it would face the simultaneous imposition of trade barriers to 27 EU states whilst each of the EU states only get trade barriers put up on one state - the UK.

    A similar argument can also be posed for immigration.1.2 million people as a percentage of the UK's resident population is around 1.6% whilst 3 million people as a proportion on the EU's population (excl. UK) is 0.6%. So the impact on the EU's citizenry is a lot bigger in absolute terms but a lot smaller when you look at it relative to the EU's size. So I don't think the UK's negotiating position is as strong as you make it seem, especially since any proposed trade deal has to be ratified by at least 21 EU states from the remaining 27.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    ARM has already gone to the Japanese.
    :emo:
 
 
 
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