Army ends support operation in Northern Ireland. Progress? Watch

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#21
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#21
Of course it's progress.
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#22
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#22
Hypothetically, social change can happen quickly in Northern Ireland, given the population is only one and a half million. That seems painfully optimistic for a place so used to sectarian conflict.
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Jim-ie
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#23
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(Original post by Agent Smith)
Perhaps. But there again, most Catholics probably realise that their days of persecution in Northern Ireland are over, so it's six of one and half a dozen of the other. Thus, it makes sense not to go to the effort of changing things - particularly with the added risk of destabilising the incredibly delicate balance that Blair and Ahern managed to create. Only if there somehow emerges a situation where there's a risk of violence erupting unless Northern Ireland joins the South should "unification" be explored; otherwise I say leave things be.
I agree to a certain point.

Its rare for unionists to talk about the positives of the union whereas nationalist parties are constantly going on about the benefits of a united Ireland, for once its actually the SDLP that are constantly bringing up "benefits" and not Sinn Fein, but I see this as more of an attempt to regain voters.

Most catholics do realise that they have achieved their civil rights, the civil rights movement was the only successful movement that achieved all its goals. That doesnt mean many are happy to still be part of the union and many of us will always view the british government and security with suspicion no matter who is in government. I do want a united Ireland but I think its more important that people in northern ireland are able to prosper and live a life that they deserve for their hard work before we even begin to challange the border. Some more hardcore republicans would call me a sellout for saying it but in the end of the day its what republicanism is about, that was lost somewhere along the way.

Basically, things should stay the way they are and a the issue of the border will be something for time to sort out.
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Jim-ie
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#24
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(Original post by dddd)
Hypothetically, social change can happen quickly in Northern Ireland, given the population is only one and a half million. That seems painfully optimistic for a place so used to sectarian conflict.
I dont agree for a second mate, Northern Ireland is a highly localised place. This place is very localised community wise, even moreso than in England. One housing estate will be isolated from another because of what flags are flown. One estate is literally shut out from its neighbour if its the other side. Sectarian mindsets will always be around, they've been around for too long to die out so quickly and we're looking at another 20 to 30 years before a new generation that didnt go through the troubles (i.e not even my generation) will taking over the ropes.

Maybe longer than that.
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#25
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#25
Suppose only time will tell. A united Ireland is inevitable
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technik
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#26
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(Original post by Jim-ie)
I've found that most protestants are afraid of being treated the way nationalists were treated in NI, in a united ireland and it is a very valid worry but Ireland these days is completely different to what it was 20 years ago especially with the EU running the show.
they just have long memories and remember the persecution of protestantism in the free state. something my family remembers too. still, they have a protestant outpost in donegal going strong even though they had to have services in cellars at times.

it's a fool and a revisionist who thinks the persecution only happened to the "poor down trodden catholics"

increasingly these days it's essentially irrelevant as a united ireland is basically impossible based on the current trends. the IRA failed to achieve it by force, the republic doesn't have a claim anymore and don't really give a ****e, and gerry and marty are having too much fun with carson keeping a watchful eye over proceedings. even, if by some freak of mathematics, it were to occur the unionist bloc would potentially find themselves even more powerful than they are now considering the perma-coalition nature of ROI governance and the fact the unionist people would need seriously buttered up to remain on side.
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#27
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#27
shudder
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technik
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#28
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#28
(Original post by dddd)
shudder
reality will do that to you
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#29
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#29
Inevitable I say. Republicanism isn't violent anymore. The situation isn't about "who won". The Republic would vote for a united Ireland in a heartbeat and we all know it. When there is a nationalist majority, there will be some uniting going down. Unionists will be unhappy but it will happen. The traditions will be protected, including the beloved Orange marches, and life will go on
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Jim-ie
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#30
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#30
(Original post by technik)
they just have long memories and remember the persecution of protestantism in the free state. something my family remembers too. still, they have a protestant outpost in donegal going strong even though they had to have services in cellars at times.

it's a fool and a revisionist who thinks the persecution only happened to the "poor down trodden catholics"

increasingly these days it's essentially irrelevant as a united ireland is basically impossible based on the current trends. the IRA failed to achieve it by force, the republic doesn't have a claim anymore and don't really give a ****e, and gerry and marty are having too much fun with carson keeping a watchful eye over proceedings. even, if by some freak of mathematics, it were to occur the unionist bloc would potentially find themselves even more powerful than they are now considering the perma-coalition nature of ROI governance and the fact the unionist people would need seriously buttered up to remain on side.
Would unionists really turn down a chance to be in government in the south and in the north? I cant see the DUP saying no if they were to exist in a united Ireland. Gerry and Marty may be having fun but they'd be quick to lose that vote of theirs if they didnt keep their policies to being in the interests of "irish", thats what happened with the SDLP a labour party turned into a party of doctors and solicitors. While the south dont have a united Ireland on the top of their agenda, there would still be a yes vote from them and something like 90%+ voted for the GFA, marketted to them that it will bring a united Ireland in the future. I think the more important issue is that in the event of a united Ireland that all traditions, even those new ones from the immigrints should be protected and enshrined in the constitution to make sure they are.

But you are right that working class protestants have had a rough time in the south. There was a fair amount of protestants at the top level of the state but they wherent exactly representative of other protestants.
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Catsmeat
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#31
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#31
(Original post by dddd)
Hypothetically, social change can happen quickly in Northern Ireland, given the population is only one and a half million. That seems painfully optimistic for a place so used to sectarian conflict.
I don't believe population size is all that important as there is a long tradition of factionalism. However, the popular credibility of many of these factions have over the years been watered down; now that some previously para-military groups have turned to the more profitable nature of organised crime, they have lost much of their street-level support. Others are legitimising and politicising their previous plateau of support by turning to organised politics, seeing that it achieves far, far more.

The removal of the army will be seen as a solidly symbolic withdrawl, one that may allow a continued advance towards a state of normality. That is not to mean that the troubles are over as I understand it, in that the Irish army will simply continue where the British army left off (although at a much reduced rate).

I wonder how much this withdrawl was made to coincide with the requirement for UN troops in Darfur, and also the possibility of greater deployments in Afghanistan (where the military has undeniably been stretched).

With the removal of the army there will be a boosted sense of civic responsibility; the people of both the Republic and the North can now advance towards their own solutions and operations, although there is no saying what form this will take. The above poster mentioned a Constitution for a United Ireland, and this may indeed be a very sensible move; it would entrench the interests of all groups and would allow for a renewed debate into the future of Ireland.
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#32
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#32
I did say "hypothetically" and "seems painfully optimistic"
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technik
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#33
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(Original post by Jim-ie)
Would unionists really turn down a chance to be in government in the south and in the north? I cant see the DUP saying no if they were to exist in a united Ireland. Gerry and Marty may be having fun but they'd be quick to lose that vote of theirs if they didnt keep their policies to being in the interests of "irish", thats what happened with the SDLP a labour party turned into a party of doctors and solicitors. While the south dont have a united Ireland on the top of their agenda, there would still be a yes vote from them and something like 90%+ voted for the GFA, marketted to them that it will bring a united Ireland in the future. I think the more important issue is that in the event of a united Ireland that all traditions, even those new ones from the immigrints should be protected and enshrined in the constitution to make sure they are.

But you are right that working class protestants have had a rough time in the south. There was a fair amount of protestants at the top level of the state but they wherent exactly representative of other protestants.
further to my other post about unionists becoming potentially power brokers in any united ireland, i'd add, ironically, that for sinn fein it could be a total disaster.

they'd be getting judged on policy, which they aren't too sharp at. it's a bit too leftist for a lot of the new rich folk on both sides of the border to take. i don't see them taking 25% of the votes down south any time soon

still maybe one day a united ireland administered solely from london without these "dails" and "assemblies" will occur. this is true unionism.
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technik
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#34
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(Original post by Catsmeat)
That is not to mean that the troubles are over as I understand it, in that the Irish army will simply continue where the British army left off (although at a much reduced rate).
eh?
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Jim-ie
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#35
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#35
(Original post by technik)
further to my other post about unionists becoming potentially power brokers in any united ireland, i'd add, ironically, that for sinn fein it could be a total disaster.

they'd be getting judged on policy, which they aren't too sharp at. it's a bit too leftist for a lot of the new rich folk on both sides of the border to take. i don't see them taking 25% of the votes down south any time soon

still maybe one day a united ireland administered solely from london without these "dails" and "assemblies" will occur. this is true unionism.
I dont know if it would be a disaster for Sinn Fein, in the south they base a lot of their strength on their strength and success in the north and people arent buying it but if they were able to claim the success of uniting the island "peacefully" it would work in their favour. According to a mate of mine in the party, they are focusing on becoming more center-ist with their policies and since they're the only all island party, they base a lot of their policies on an all island agenda. Not always a good idea in reality and they should realise that come next election down there.

The chance of that united Ireland happening are even less likely than the republican vision of a united Ireland I suppose the DUP would like the idea.
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technik
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#36
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(Original post by Jim-ie)
I dont know if it would be a disaster for Sinn Fein, in the south they base a lot of their strength on their strength and success in the north and people arent buying it but if they were able to claim the success of uniting the island "peacefully" it would work in their favour. According to a mate of mine in the party, they are focusing on becoming more center-ist with their policies and since they're the only all island party, they base a lot of their policies on an all island agenda. Not always a good idea in reality and they should realise that come next election down there.

The chance of that united Ireland happening are even less likely than the republican vision of a united Ireland I suppose the DUP would like the idea.
its all hypothetical anyway. dont see a united ireland via a vote in my lifetime in all honesty.
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Jim-ie
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#37
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I'm sure it'll happen eventually, but whether its in my lifetime or not is just seeing into the future and I dont know, and to be honest its not a high priority for me at the minute.
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Morbo
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#38
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#38
(Original post by Libertin du Nord)
By "dealing with" I assume you can only mean "pretty much ignoring".
Yes. But at least no one is dying. A petrol bomb would be unacceptable in London, but Derry is a whole different ball game. You simply can't apply an English policing attitude to Northern Ireland.

'Ignoring' it may be, but it's akin to leaving a child in a tantrum until it realises it's getting nowhere.
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