I hope you are all enjoying your summer. I am student of politics at Queen Mary university of London, and just got my second year result securing 66 Percent. This (September) I will not only be in my Final year but shall also be applying to some top unis, which include Oxford (Master's; Global Governance and Diplomacy). I can get some good references and have a good chance of getting above 70 percent in my final year. The only question is that I am confused whether I have a good chance of geting a conditional offer from Oxford? should I start working on my Personal statement or not? The course mentioned requires First or predicted First class degree.
66 is a long way off a first....
Sadly not at all. Only very top first class succeed. Unless you have really strong essay to back you up.
It depends whether you think your uni/referee will predict you a First based on your current grades and performance. If you think they will, then it's worth a punt. But there's no point applying if you can establish that your uni will predict you a 2:1. You're best advised to have a meeting with your course leader and get their view.
To be honest, in a competitive course like politics/IR, I imagine that even if you do manage to get a First in your final year (and in your overall classification - I'm not sure how it's weighted between 2nd and 3rd year), you're likely to loose out to someone who has consistent Firsts throughout. Your transcripts will be important though, if you're to stand any chance - are you getting firsts in certain classes that relate particularly to the masters and being pulled down by others? Are you on an overall upwards trajectory? I would second the advice about and ask if your references would be able in good conscience to predict a first for you.
Does the admission team look in any particular way at those who want to do a Master's but are pretty convinced they're not interested in going for a PhD? What I mean is - do they favour students who show an interest in going into research/phd over those who just want to do a Master's after which they plan on leaving the academia and joining the work force?
Also you should be working well all the time if you're aiming high and not just at the 11th hour. You won't get away with that at Oxford.