Someone in the UCAS forum just made a good point. In previous years, Track wasn't available during this period and updates were made on the 14th, 15th etc, but nobody found out because it was unavailable. This year however, Track's working fine, and on the UCAS website it says that no updates are being made in these few days, and updates will start at mid-morning on the 16th. It also says that you can keep checking on the 17th, so it looks like a lot of people will be met with "conditional" if they check Track too soon.