Seems like if things go as well as it possibly can for Donald Trump, he still loses!! Watch

Gnomes&Knights
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Crijjkal
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Polls are rigged pro-democrat .. They assume a 2012 turnout but enthusiasm is very low among Democrats this year.. Blacks will vote in lower turnout without a Black candidate and white working class and Republicans will come out in flocks.

Deep blue states are also becoming battleground states, example Minnesota which is +3 Clinton (Obama led with double digits) .. New Mexico, Colorado are following ..

Pennsylvania will no doubt go Trump.

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/northampton/
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AlexS101
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Trump is increasing in the polls at the moment, and as with brexit there will be voters who won't admit they are voting for trump to pollsters but will do so in the privacy of a ballot booth, so polls are not likely to be that accurate in my opinion
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Kiritsugu
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A question. Or more... How do the polls work and how realistic are they? Also how reliable are they? Also, what effect if any could they have on the outcome?
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Crijjkal
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(Original post by Kiritsugu)
how realistic are they? Also how reliable are they?
They aren't realistic or reliable in any sense of the word .. most are biased pro-Democrat.
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MagnetoWasRight
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and?


If Shillary Sodom gets it, America will be so much more neo-Con than under Hussein Obongo so either way America will be better.
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thickleftard
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(Original post by Crijjkal)
Polls are rigged pro-democrat .. They assume a 2012 turnout but enthusiasm is very low among Democrats this year.. Blacks will vote in lower turnout without a Black candidate and white working class and Republicans will come out in flocks.

Deep blue states are also becoming battleground states, example Minnesota which is +3 Clinton (Obama led with double digits) .. New Mexico, Colorado are following ..

Pennsylvania will no doubt go Trump.

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/northampton/
do you actually know that they're rigged? or is it an assumption
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Joep95
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You should look at the polls from a few weeks ago, they said trump had a 3% chance but that has quickly changed it is now 43% and rising
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Napp
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(Original post by Crijjkal)
Polls are rigged pro-democrat .. They assume a 2012 turnout but enthusiasm is very low among Democrats this year.. Blacks will vote in lower turnout without a Black candidate and white working class and Republicans will come out in flocks.

Deep blue states are also becoming battleground states, example Minnesota which is +3 Clinton (Obama led with double digits) .. New Mexico, Colorado are following ..

Pennsylvania will no doubt go Trump.

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/northampton/
In fairness polls are rigged to whatever the person asking wants as an answer, ask the questions the right way you can guarentee a result [near enough] you want.
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DanB1991
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The main problem is a lot of Republicans will simply refuse to vote for Trump. Okay a lot of Democrats are goign to refuse to vote for Clinton but they would never vote for Trump instead. By comparison a large margin of republicans would be willing to vote for Clinton simply because they're afraid of the result of Trump being president.

Trump's supporters don't realise that they're making the same mistake the republican party made in 1992 by targeting hardline republicans. These are the kind of individuals who would vote for the republican party anyway. They are not going to sway many moderates and will more than less likely scare their own moderates away. In the US elections aren't won by attracting hardline conservatives or hardline liberals, they're won by persuading the moderates you're not too one sided.
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Aj12
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(Original post by AlexS101)
Trump is increasing in the polls at the moment, and as with brexit there will be voters who won't admit they are voting for trump to pollsters but will do so in the privacy of a ballot booth, so polls are not likely to be that accurate in my opinion
So far there has been no evidence for this effect in the primaries. Trump broadly achieved what was expected

Posted from TSR Mobile
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ManiaMuse
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(Original post by thickleftard)
do you actually know that they're rigged? or is it an assumption
Wouldn't necessarily say rigged but you do have to remember that polling is a business. It costs money to run polls and most of the big polling organisations are paid by media outlets to do the election polls. Most media sources in the USA are blatently biased in one way or another and have their own agendas

While the media obviously wants semi-accurate polls because if they publish completely innacurate polls then they look stupid (see UK 2015 election), they are also aware that polling can probably influence voting intention because of herd mentality. Also the polls are only tested once every 4/5 years so within a 'margin of error' they can pretty much weight the results through methodology changes to get the results the papers want to publish.

In the UK most of the polling organisations have been messing around a lot with their methodologies, weighting and sampling since the woeful predictions before the UK 2015 election. Some performed better than others running up to the Brexit referendum, although that's probably not the best indicator of whether they have improved their accuracy or not because it was a unique event.
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2016_GCSE
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Clinton + Media funds = Pro Clinton polls.
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