Well done Corbynistas!!!

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As I said above, you seem to be confusing the views of party members and Labour voters.

Labour voters are much more Corbyn-sceptic than Labour members. And we know that Owen Smith won in the category of those who were members prior to 2015. Corbyn's support primarily comes from entryists who joined the party since May 2015 and in very large numbers voted for parties other than Labour in the last election.

What matters is the voters, not Labour party members.

Reply 21

richpanda

Even a soft-left labour party wouldn't currently get elected, with everything going on in the world right now.

Reply 22

Jammy Duel

Original post by AlexanderHam

I'm not saying it will be easy and that True Labour wouldn't lose any. But it has to be done. "Labour" no longer carries the Labour torch, it is not the legitimate successor of the party.

So moderates can either stay in the Labour Party and see it decline like the Liberal Party did, or it can rip the bandaid off, take the pain and do to Corbyn Labour what Labour did to the Liberals.

You also seem to be confusing the views of Labour members and the views of Labour voters. Labour voters, and voters in general, by an appreciable majority prefer Owen Smith to Jeremy Corbyn. We also know that Owen Smith won by a significant margin in the category of those who were members prior to May 2015.

What matters is what the voters want, not what a few hundred thousand entryist extremist former Green and Lib Dem voters want.

Now I've found the one I was looking for

Further, the notion that whenever a part of a party hits choppy waters the whole party is doomed is simply laughable, last I checked this happened 34 years ago within Labour and they're still around today. For Labour to collapse as per the Liberals they need somebody to take their place, it's unlikely to be the Lib Dems, it's too early to say what will happen to UKIP, and the splinter group would rely on the corbynistas to have control for quite some time.

Reply 23

AlexanderHam

Original post by Jammy Duel

Further, the notion that whenever a part of a party hits choppy waters the whole party is doomed

This isn't choppy waters, this is uncharted territory for Labour. The hard left is fundamentally unappealing to the electorate; as long as Labour sticks to Corbynite policies it will be unelectable. The longer a party is out of power the more it atrophies. And the SDP breakaway was like 20 MPs, not 170. They were also fighting a general election, not a mass byelection.

last I checked this happened 34 years ago within Labour and they're still around today

The idea that this is in any way comparable to the 1980s demonstrates a lack of concrete knowledge about what actually happened in the 1980s viz. Militant, the SDP and the Bennites. At no point did Militant or the Bennites take control of the party leadership.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 24

Davij038

Not surprised. Owen smith and Angela Eagle ere about as inspiring as Yvette cooper and Andy burnham. Most importantly smith pitched himself as Corbyn lite and didn't take him head on. Disappointed ted that with a wealth of talent to choose from, nobody really had the guys to bother. That said he would have lost regardless. The Labour Party is Corbyn now l.

Moderates should either defect ( to a new or another party) , quit or suck it up

Reply 25

AlexanderHam

Original post by Davij038

Most importantly smith pitched himself as Corbyn lite and didn't take him head on

Disappointed ted that with a wealth of talent to choose from, nobody really had the guys to bother.

People like Dan Jarvis and Sir Keir Starmer knew the odds of winning were slim. Even Owen Smith knew that. I think the moderates are now counting on a Fabian strategy, they will need a second disposable candidate to challenge in 2018, who will be able to tear a few more strips off Corbyn. And by 2019, at which point there will probably be serious Corbyn fatigue, they will be ready to push forward Dan or Sir Keir.

Reply 26

Davij038

Original post by AlexanderHam

That was probably the smartest move. The moderates were always going to vote for Owen Smith. To have any possibility of inducing Corbyn supporters to move over to Owen Smith they needed a pretty left-wing policy slate.

People like Dan Jarvis and Sir Keir Starmer knew the odds of winning were slim. Even Owen Smith knew that. I think the moderates are now counting on a Fabian strategy, they will need a second disposable candidate to challenge in 2018, who will be able to tear a few more strips off Corbyn. And by 2019, at which point there will probably be serious Corbyn fatigue, they will be ready to push forward Dan or Sir Keir.

When I say challenge Corbyn I meant personally not policy wise (although he's a mess there too) in regards to his circle of friends, warped views, anti Semitidm mess et al.

That said he could have done all of that, cured world poverty and he still would have lost. The corbynite majority decided he won way before the contest. The problem is (and its the same for the tories) that the essential swing voter can't be bothered to become a party member (this includes myself and most of TSR) and threes moderate sympathisers whilst far more numerous and sensible are far more fickle and less reliant and tribal than the true believers who in times like this dominate

Reply 27

anarchism101

Original post by AlexanderHam

People like Dan Jarvis and Sir Keir Starmer knew the odds of winning were slim. Even Owen Smith knew that.

Though apparently you didn't, as a few weeks ago you were heavily pushing Smith's chances, insisting that he was actually marginally ahead and had the support of majorities of the affiliated and registered supporters, all of which turned out not to be true:

Original post by AlexanderHam

The Saving Labour faction has put out an analysis that suggests that Corbyn's support has been massively overestimated and in fact Owen Smith is edging him slightly (polls consistently show a majority of trade unionists prefer Smith to Corbyn), we know that Smith is supported by a supermajority of Labour members who joined before May 2015, and also despite Corbynite claims it looks likely that the £25 supporters are actually in the majority Owen Smith supporters.

I think the moderates are now counting on a Fabian strategy, they will need a second disposable candidate to challenge in 2018, who will be able to tear a few more strips off Corbyn. And by 2019, at which point there will probably be serious Corbyn fatigue, they will be ready to push forward Dan or Sir Keir.

"tear a few more strips off"? Smith failed to tear any off - Corbyn won both more votes and a higher proportion of the vote than he did last year, including the majority of full member votes that he just missed out on last year. Plus any future election will include the large number of new members who were blocked from voting this time, who are likely mostly Corbyn supporters.

Reply 28

KingGoonIan

Instead of making a new thread, I thought it would be suitable to post this here:

I have been a paying member of the Labour party for 4 years now. I support and agree with a lot of Labours policies and would very much like to see them win the next general election. However I really do not like Jeremy Corbyn and I voted for Andy Burnham and recently Owen Smith (I preferred Andy Burnham). Jeremy Corbyn is not a leader; he is a protester and a lot of his views are too far left and too idealist. I do not understand why so many voted for him when clearly he will not win a general election. With him winning the latest leadership election, I see no light at the end of the tunnel for Labour so I am considering leaving now.

Reply 29

Trinculo

Original post by KingGoonIan

What did I just read?

Someone with more than half a brain. That can't be allowed.

Reply 30

username878267

Original post by Jammy Duel

The problem any breakaway group would have, whether it be from left or right, is that Labour can broadly be broken into three roughly equally sized groups: the left, the right and the bran loyalists. What this means is that assuming these groups follow through we would see Labour having about 20-24% and the splinter group 10-12%.

Obviously it gets more complicated with UKIP wrestling for the same chunk of the electorate, but if the breakaway group leave soon it could certainly be interesting, they will have a few years to gain a foothold and most importantly fight with UKIP given they have an okay core support. They then perform strongly in 2020 and Corbynistas keep Labour firmly left wing, the break away group then starts targetting the lib dems, and brand loyalists.

I imagine a breakaway group led by someone like Chuka Umunna would join with the lib dems and perhaps even win over a few 'soft-brexit' tories.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 31

username878267

Original post by KingGoonIan

I know how you are feeling but this is the time more than ever that moderates need to stay in Labour. If moderates leave, then we will never get a centre-left labour party again.

Reply 32

username878267

Original post by AlexanderHam

Kier is wonderful.

Reply 33

KingGoonIan

Original post by Bornblue

I know how you are feeling but this is the time more than ever that moderates need to stay in Labour. If moderates leave, then we will never get a centre-left labour party again.

Getting emails like this:

Spoiler

Really doesn't make me feel inclined to stay any longer haha.

Reply 34

username878267

Original post by KingGoonIan

Getting emails like this:

Spoiler

Really doesn't make me feel inclined to stay any longer haha.

If decent, social democratic members such as yourself leave then in effect we allow Labour to permanently become a far-left protest party.

I do believe Corbyn can be toppled by the moderates, they will need a very good strategy though.

Reply 35

KingGoonIan

Original post by Bornblue

I wonder how long most of those who voted for Corbyn have actually been Labour members. Feels like our party has been hijacked.

I'm sorry though I don't believe Corbyn can be toppled now that he has won this latest leadership election - its too late now.

Reply 36

username878267

Original post by KingGoonIan

He will be.
I really don't think there are that many more Corbynites out there. Owen Smith was a poor choice of candidate.

If they put up an inspiring candidate which draws more moderates into the party to vote for him, I think it can be done.

What's the alternative?

Reply 37

KingGoonIan

Original post by Bornblue

A split.

Until then I will sit on the fence and stop being a paying member.

Reply 38

Good bloke

Original post by Bornblue

If decent, social democratic members such as yourself leave then in effect we allow Labour to permanently become a far-left protest party.

The alternative, if moderates stay, is that their money and effort is used to further far left aims. If I were a moderate lefty (which thank the lord I'm not, sir) I'd be wanting my money and effort to be in furtherance of moderate policies that could achieve electoral success. That ain't going to happen for some time to come in Labour.

It seems that moderate money might well be spent supporting those loonies who stand on street corners selling such nonsense as Socialist Worker.

Momentum seems to be composed of a few Labour members and a lot of the extremist crowd that Labour managed to expel in the 1980s, and there is tremendous confusion over where an activist's money will get spent.

Reply 39

AlexanderHam

Original post by Bornblue

Kier is wonderful.

I agree, I've met him twice and he's (obviously) highly intelligent but also comes across as a nice guy and not calculating or manipulative... just an intelligent, nice guy who wants to make a contribution.

I think it's also a huge advantage that he has been both a barrister defending (and bringing judicial reviews) in human rights actions, and also the Director of Public Prosecutions, convicting terrorists, murderers, rapists and assorted ne'er do wells.

I think he'd do very well as leader of the party.