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Crisis in Bosnia Watch

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    Don't know how much people have heard about this, but basically Bosnia is in a bit of a mess. Republika Srpska are holding a referendum this weekend, ostensibly just about the day of a national holiday, but that's really just a proxy. The 'referendum' is on an issue the Bosnian Constitutional Court have already ruled on - Milorad Dodik, the RS President, is just using it to try and challenge and provoke the national institutions like the Constitutional Court, and is in many ways a trial run for more illegal unilateral plebiscites of the same kind, including possibly a secession referendum.
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    (Original post by anarchism101)
    Don't know how much people have heard about this, but basically Bosnia is in a bit of a mess. Republika Srpska are holding a referendum this weekend, ostensibly just about the day of a national holiday, but that's really just a proxy. The 'referendum' is on an issue the Bosnian Constitutional Court have already ruled on - Milorad Dodik, the RS President, is just using it to try and challenge and provoke the national institutions like the Constitutional Court, and is in many ways a trial run for more illegal unilateral plebiscites of the same kind, including possibly a secession referendum.
    Can you explain so a noob like me can understand?
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Can you explain so a noob like me can understand?
    I'll try, though this is quite politically charged, so I'll try to keep it relatively simple and neutral.

    In 1992, Bosnia-Herzegovina was imminently set to leave and declare independence from the collapsing Yugoslavia (by this point, Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia had all already declared independence). Serb nationalist politicians (Serbs made up roughly 1/3 of Bosnia's population), led by Radovan Karadzic, unilaterally declared 'Republika Srpska' - an explicitly ethnically Serb state within Bosnia, which they hoped to break away from it and annex to Serbia proper. They launched an armed rebellion, supported and armed by Milosevic in Belgrade, against the Bosnian government, which was much weaker militarily. The RS seized, and ethnically cleansed of non-Serbs, 65-70% of Bosnia early on in the war. However, by 1995 they were weakening for a variety of reasons, and were pushed back to around 50% of the country, at which point the US effectively imposed a settlement, the Dayton Accords. The Bosnian government and its Croat nationalist allies would retain the half of the country they held as the 'Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina' while the RS would keep the half it held. Both would be 'entities' within a reorganised single state, called simply 'Bosnia and Herzegovina' ('BiH' for short). This is, with minor changes, the system that exists now.

    The problem is that Dayton was quite vague and ambiguous about what would happen next. As with the entire Bosnian peace process, it was a compromise between two completely incompatible visions. The Bosnian government wanted to interpret it as promoting gradual integration, with the entities as purely non-ethnic subnational units, clearly subordinate to the overall Bosnian state. The RS leadership wanted to interpret the entities as specifically ethnically-oriented, and as the main 'constituent units' of the new Bosnian state, which would be very limited and would essentially be a glorified confederation of two de facto separate states.

    Two decades on, this divide still exists. Milorad Dodik, the RS President, actively wants to roll back the minor degrees of integration and unification of the two entities that have actually happened.

    It's obviously quite a bit more complex than that, but I wanted to try and keep it both simple and to avoid 'biased' interpretations of the war. Ask any questions you like though!
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    (Original post by anarchism101)
    Don't know how much people have heard about this, but basically Bosnia is in a bit of a mess. Republika Srpska are holding a referendum this weekend, ostensibly just about the day of a national holiday, but that's really just a proxy. The 'referendum' is on an issue the Bosnian Constitutional Court have already ruled on - Milorad Dodik, the RS President, is just using it to try and challenge and provoke the national institutions like the Constitutional Court, and is in many ways a trial run for more illegal unilateral plebiscites of the same kind, including possibly a secession referendum.
    Nice to know somebody cares. Yes, when the referendum is over than it would be Srpska is de facto independent. The High Representative of UN in Bosnia will not do anything so that is all.

    The Bosnian Muslims violated numerous times the verdicts of the Court so Dodik wil not be actually first doing it. Mostar city affair for example.

    The Constitutional court itself is a joke. It consist of 2 croats,2 muslims,2 Serbs and 3 foreigners (exclusivly from western countries). Since the West is shilling for the Muslims the court usually makes decision in favour of Muslims (3 foreigners+2Muslims > 2 Serb + 2 Croatian judges). So the Court made this decision that the 9th January holiday is unconstitutional.
    Dodik was of course triggered and called a referendum. Now, he rocks.
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    (Original post by slaven)
    Nice to know somebody cares. Yes, when the referendum is over than it would be Srpska is de facto independent. The High Representative of UN in Bosnia will not do anything so that is all.
    Nothing substantial. The EU will pull a few strings with Vucic in Belgrade and find some sort of 'compromise' which will actually be just kicking the can down the road another few years.

    The Bosnian Muslims violated numerous times the verdicts of the Court so Dodik wil not be actually first doing it. Mostar city affair for example.

    The Constitutional court itself is a joke. It consist of 2 croats,2 muslims,2 Serbs and 3 foreigners (exclusivly from western countries). Since the West is shilling for the Muslims the court usually makes decision in favour of Muslims (3 foreigners+2Muslims > 2 Serb + 2 Croatian judges). So the Court made this decision that the 9th January holiday is unconstitutional.
    Dodik was of course triggered and called a referendum. Now, he rocks.
    Sure, plenty of politicians have violated and ignored the Constitutional Court before, but not as stridently, openly, or on such a large scale as Dodik has. He's making a grand show of it. Even though it was a stupidly pedantic decision by the Court, Dodik was waiting for an opportunity and the specific issue doesn't really matter, it's just a proxy.

    The Court's 3 current international judges are a German, a Moldovan and a Macedonian. That's hardly "exclusively from western countries".
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    (Original post by anarchism101)
    Nothing substantial. The EU will pull a few strings with Vucic in Belgrade and find some sort of 'compromise' which will actually be just kicking the can down the road another few years.
    Serbia and Vučić cannot control Srpska or Dodik, and their influence over her is actually less than you think. They could suggest something to the gov of Srpska and at the end Dodik decide.

    From what I see the most support of the referendum comes from Russia. Few days ago Dodik was by Putin where he got support and backing from him. Afterall Republika Srpska is the only entity in former Yugoslavia that is openly pro-russian.


    (Original post by anarchism101)
    Sure, plenty of politicians have violated and ignored the Constitutional Court before, but not as stridently, openly, or on such a large scale as Dodik has. He's making a grand show of it. Even though it was a stupidly pedantic decision by the Court, Dodik was waiting for an opportunity and the specific issue doesn't really matter, it's just a proxy.


    The Court's 3 current international judges are a German, a Moldovan and a Macedonian. That's hardly "exclusively from western countries".
    Well as you says since this is not the first time that the CC decision is ignored I really do not see why should Dodik do it as well. But even if it is not the first time that is openly ignored. There is the case of the Mostar City Statut, yet there was no any outcry from the West of the High Representative.

    Nevermind the composition. The foreign judges are put in charged by the West and they are usually biased in favour or the Bosniaks.

    BH should divide quick as possible. it is for the sake of its citizens.
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    It seems like BiH is moving further towards becoming a failed state than at any point since the Dayton Accords. It remains the case that the actors most likely to influence Bosnian internal politics are the country's neighbours, and to a large extent what they do defines what BiH is and how stable it remains. The post-Dayton years were marked by an expansionist European Union with a commitment to ensuring peace in the western Balkans, coupled with pro-European and integrationalist governments in Zagreb and Belgrade - the two capitals upon which peace in Bosnia ultimately rests. An enlargement-weary EU along with a populist-right ascendancy in Croatia is fueling ethnic tensions in BiH, and it is my opinion that a strong will on the part of the Serbian government to complete its EU accession process - and a rejection by them of ethnic partitionism in Bosnia - might put the Serb Republic's leaders off this drive and back onto the path of maintaining the confessional system in BiH. As for political developments within Croatia, we will have to wait and see how this impacts the politics of the Croat minority in BiH.
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    (Original post by Rhadamanthus)
    It seems like BiH is moving further towards becoming a failed state than at any point since the Dayton Accords. It remains the case that the actors most likely to influence Bosnian internal politics are the country's neighbours, and to a large extent what they do defines what BiH is and how stable it remains. The post-Dayton years were marked by an expansionist European Union with a commitment to ensuring peace in the western Balkans, coupled with pro-European and integrationalist governments in Zagreb and Belgrade - the two capitals upon which peace in Bosnia ultimately rests. An enlargement-weary EU along with a populist-right ascendancy in Croatia is fueling ethnic tensions in BiH, and it is my opinion that a strong will on the part of the Serbian government to complete its EU accession process - and a rejection by them of ethnic partitionism in Bosnia - might put the Serb Republic's leaders off this drive and back onto the path of maintaining the confessional system in BiH. As for political developments within Croatia, we will have to wait and see how this impacts the politics of the Croat minority in BiH.
    Yeah, it's Belgrade's desire to join the EU club which ultimately holds it somewhat in check. Its policy towards BiH and Srpska is still somewhat ambiguous, but they know they have to be cautious about it. Zagreb have been the bigger problem in recent years - as they're already in the EU, there are fewer carrots to offer them. Grabar-Kitarović's dismantling of all the good work Stipe Mesic did in the 2000s regarding Croatia-BiH relations is particularly unhelpful.
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    (Original post by anarchism101)
    Don't know how much people have heard about this, but basically Bosnia is in a bit of a mess. Republika Srpska are holding a referendum this weekend, ostensibly just about the day of a national holiday, but that's really just a proxy. The 'referendum' is on an issue the Bosnian Constitutional Court have already ruled on - Milorad Dodik, the RS President, is just using it to try and challenge and provoke the national institutions like the Constitutional Court, and is in many ways a trial run for more illegal unilateral plebiscites of the same kind, including possibly a secession referendum.
    What would a new war be fought over ?
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    (Original post by anarchism101)
    Yeah, it's Belgrade's desire to join the EU club which ultimately holds it somewhat in check. Its policy towards BiH and Srpska is still somewhat ambiguous, but they know they have to be cautious about it. Zagreb have been the bigger problem in recent years - as they're already in the EU, there are fewer carrots to offer them. Grabar-Kitarović's dismantling of all the good work Stipe Mesic did in the 2000s regarding Croatia-BiH relations is particularly unhelpful.
    hhahahahahahahah LOL. Never actually had a good opinion on Kolinda but it seems she is doing a good job.

    No wonder you westernes are losing Syria since you have this "give carrot" attitude.
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    Why are here so keen to keep up BiH? Just let it go.
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    (Original post by Rhadamanthus)
    It seems like BiH is moving further towards becoming a failed state than at any point since the Dayton Accords. It remains the case that the actors most likely to influence Bosnian internal politics are the country's neighbours, and to a large extent what they do defines what BiH is and how stable it remains. The post-Dayton years were marked by an expansionist European Union with a commitment to ensuring peace in the western Balkans, coupled with pro-European and integrationalist governments in Zagreb and Belgrade - the two capitals upon which peace in Bosnia ultimately rests. An enlargement-weary EU along with a populist-right ascendancy in Croatia is fueling ethnic tensions in BiH, and it is my opinion that a strong will on the part of the Serbian government to complete its EU accession process - and a rejection by them of ethnic partitionism in Bosnia - might put the Serb Republic's leaders off this drive and back onto the path of maintaining the confessional system in BiH. As for political developments within Croatia, we will have to wait and see how this impacts the politics of the Croat minority in BiH.
    Bosnia may choose to become more aligned with the Wahhabist and salafist world which is becoming increasingly popular. This could align them more with Saudi Arabia which would drastically improve their economy and modernise the nation. The Bosnians would see protection from the Islamic world as a defence against Serb aggression.

    Wahhabism is spreading in that region of SE Europe aided by the fact that Bosnia is an Islamic country but also other places like Czech Republic etc too. Daesh also has its sights on South East Europe should Syria fall under IS allowing them to move via Turkey to Balkans.
 
 
 
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