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Economic signs that Brexit will be terrible for us watch

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    Now that we are starting to come to the end of the boost caused by the surge of liquidity that the Bank of England injected after the Leave vote, all of the experts will be watching the economic indicators for 'early warnings' that Brexit is in fact going to be bad.

    One of the best known early signals of economic growth or decline is advertising spending. It ticks up when growth is imminent and it just as reliably drops when recession is imminent. The UK is one of the biggest producers of advertising and the biggest company of them all is WPP.

    That's why it is deeply worrying that Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP, is warning of slowing revenues and says that business is deeply worried about the current prospects.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business...martin-sorrell

    The reality, as opposed to the fantasy, of Brexit. :sad:
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    Any day now.
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    The Nissan thing was a cold warning as well - UK taxpayers have basically written a blank cheque to keep them in the country, a completely unsustainable situation. Without it, they would be leaving now.

    The writing is on the wall.
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    God but I am coming to hate the Guardian. It's the same every day. I voted Remain but it is a done deal now and I'd sooner hope that we can make a decent fist of it than wish with Polly and the idiots that the country will spiral into the abyss for the pleasure of being able to say I told you so. "You'll be sorry when my kids are prosituting themselves because of your vote!" Miserabilists.
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    (Original post by cambio wechsel)
    God but I am coming to hate the Guardian. It's the same every day. I voted Remain but it is a done deal now and I'd sooner hope that we can make a decent fist of it than wish with Polly and the idiots that the country will spiral into the abyss for the pleasure of being able to say I told you so. "You'll be sorry when my kids are prosituting themselves because of your vote!" Miserabilists.
    They all said the same thing about austerity which "expert" prophesying now lies forgotten.

    Pundits should be legally required to bet their salaries on specific predictions. Bad pundits would thereby be encouraged to pursue more lucrative careers better suited to their skill set, such as fry cooker operative rough-sleeping alcoholic. Surviving pundits, we will have some reason to take seriously.
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    (Original post by cambio wechsel)
    God but I am coming to hate the Guardian. It's the same every day. I voted Remain but it is a done deal now and I'd sooner hope that we can make a decent fist of it than wish with Polly and the idiots that the country will spiral into the abyss for the pleasure of being able to say I told you so. "You'll be sorry when my kids are prosituting themselves because of your vote!" Miserabilists.
    Shoot the messenger. Sorrell is hardly a typical Guardianista, he's the CEO of one of the world's biggest companies.

    There's huge tendency for Leavers to wear blinkers and try to blot out contrary facts. Better to face reality.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Shoot the messenger. Sorrell is hardly a typical Guardianista, he's the CEO of one of the world's biggest companies.

    There's huge tendency for Leavers to wear blinkers and try to blot out contrary facts. Better to face reality.
    He has said that his revenues grew at 2.1% when previously they had grown at 3.5%, which he ascribes to Brexit although it could easily just be stochastic churn. He argues this portends disaster.

    Again: he should put his money where his mouth is. If he thinks disaster is looming because his business is growing slightly slower than it was before, he should short the FTSE. If that makes him billions, I will take him seriously.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    He has said that his revenues grew at 2.1% when previously they had grown at 3.5%, which he ascribes to Brexit although it could easily just be stochastic churn. He argues this portends disaster.

    Again: he should put his money where his mouth is. If he thinks disaster is looming because his business is growing slightly slower than it was before, he should short the FTSE. If that makes him billions, I will take him seriously.
    You assess economic credibility by how willing people are to turn day trader?

    Do you not think it conceivable that (a) he knows his business well, better in fact than you (amazing thought) and (b) that he is giving an honest warning?

    Anyway, we will see in the near future if the rest of the advertising/media market turns down in the UK - WPP is generally taken to be the weathervane as they are the biggest and most exposed.

    I will come back to this thread each time we get another major piece of economic reality about Brexit, as opposed to wishful thinking and pipe dreams.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    You assess economic credibility by how willing people are to turn day trader?

    Do you not think it conceivable that (a) he knows his business well, better in fact than you (amazing thought) and (b) that he is giving an honest warning?
    I think he is desperately trying to spin totally unremarkable business data as a portent of doom because he opposes Brexit ideologically.

    If you think that predicting the economic effects of Brexit is as risky as day trading why do you do it with such volume and apparent certainty?

    Anyway, we will see in the near future if the rest of the advertising/media market turns down in the UK - WPP is generally taken to be the weathervane as they are the biggest and most exposed.

    I will come back to this thread each time we get another major piece of economic reality about Brexit, as opposed to wishful thinking and pipe dreams.
    And their UK business has grown and their overseas business has grown massively. That is the reality. The apocalypse is your pipe dream.
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    Fullofsurprises

    Serious question - do you want the UK to fail economically?
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I will come back to this thread each time we get another major piece of economic reality about Brexit, as opposed to wishful thinking and pipe dreams.
    I think you'll find that the majority of people who voted for Brexit were looking at the long term picture rather than the short term one. The fact that the economy hasn't spectacularly exploded in the short term, despite predictions from a fair few of the Remain campaign, is definitely a very welcome bonus. After all, the UK economy is continuing to grow and unemployment is still falling.

    What really matters is what happens in 10, 20 & even 50 years time, not what happens this year or even the next.
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    (Original post by Tempest II)
    I think you'll find that the majority of people who voted for Brexit were looking at the long term picture rather than the short term one. The fact that the economy hasn't spectacularly exploded in the short term, despite predictions from a fair few of the Remain campaign, is definitely a very welcome bonus. After all, the UK economy is continuing to grow and unemployment is still falling.

    What really matters is what happens in 10, 20 & even 50 years time, not what happens this year or even the next.
    Agreed, but it's important to note why it hasn't gone up in flames yet - the reason is that the Bank crashed rates, pumped in huge liquidity and made all kinds of promises, as have the government - not least, the apparent (and mad) promise to Nissan to bail out their exports no matter what the cost.

    Things are actually pretty bad when you take off the tinsel and they are going to get an awful lot worse.
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    Another economic sign: Moodys are to downgrade the UK's credit rating if (as the government are currently planning) we leave the Single Market.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business...wngrade-brexit

    Further downgrades to our credit rating will have dire effects on government borrowing and spending plans and the government's ability to raise money to fund the deficit.

    More signs of the negative consequences of Brexit on the economy to follow as they happen. Watch this thread / follow me for updates.
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    As the oldies who voted for Brexit will tell you: you can't win all the time. They pity the younger generation who moan when they can no longer live off the state or their families, and look for things to blame rather than come up with innovative solutions
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    All this doom-mongering about the effects of Brexit, even if true in part, still isn't going to change the result of the referendum. Wouldn't it be better to try and be a little more positive and at least try to make a success of it now the decision to leave has been taken rather than this endless stream of moaning and whining about how we're all going to hell in a handcart? Fullofsurprises, you do seem to be rather revelling in the apocalyptic stories, and I"m not sure how this is exactly useful or constructive as we move on from the vote into actually delivering Brexit.
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    You can read into "indicators" however you want and come to whatever conclusion you are trying to come to. The truth is nobody knows what the effects of Brexit are yet.
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    (Original post by Reality Check)
    All this doom-mongering about the effects of Brexit, even if true in part, still isn't going to change the result of the referendum. Wouldn't it be better to try and be a little more positive and at least try to make a success of it now the decision to leave has been taken rather than this endless stream of moaning and whining about how we're all going to hell in a handcart? Fullofsurprises, you do seem to be rather revelling in the apocalyptic stories, and I"m not sure how this is exactly useful or constructive as we move on from the vote into actually delivering Brexit.
    The government are simply posturing by pretending it is irreversible. There was no vote in the referendum for example about the single market. The issue was put in simplistic terms.

    It must go before Parliament and it must be subjected to proper scrutiny about the consequences.

    I am interested in the obvious fact that withdrawal from the single market is going to be disastrous for our economy and all the people who don't want to face that because they prioritise their racism or xenophobia over our national interests are not to be listened to.
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    So apparently it is "racist" and "xenophobic" to call out a subtle attempt by the establishment to attract more powers to itself?
    Plus given that the referendum was held when trust in politicians are at the lowest they've ever been, I don't think anyone should be surprised that they're all jumping ship because it didn't go their way.
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    I was firmly opposed to Brexit, and it was my opinion that a two-thirds majority should have been required in the first place. However, by the rules of the referendum, we're leaving, and that's the end of that. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping for the best, but applying for citizenship elsewhere is looking more and more attractive by the day. Maybe Scotland, in the event they become independent.
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    What is ... annoying in all this is not that people hold the view that brexit isn't a good thing/ is not what they wanted, that's fine, more than fine actually, people holding freely having and holding opinions about a political issue is a symptom of a good and free society. No, what's annoying is that some people appear to be enjoying any news that suggests brexit will be bad, because it "proves them right". What's annoying is that some people have absolutely no desire (or so it seems) to try and make a situation that they may not think is ideal try to work as well as it can.
 
 
 
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