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    Here's parliament as it stands:

    State of the parties at 15 July 2004

    Labour 407

    Conservative 163

    Liberal Democrat 55

    Scottish National Party/Plaid Cymru 9 (SNP 5/PC 4)

    Democratic Unionist 6

    Ulster Unionist 5

    Sinn Fein 4 (Have not taken their seats)

    Social Democratic & Labour 3

    Independent 1

    Independent Conservative 1

    Independent Labour 1

    Speaker & 3 Deputies 4 (Do not normally vote)

    Total 659

    Government majority 159
    Polls still show that Tony Blair is considered a good leader (compared to Michael Howard, at least), even with the Iraq mess. This combined with the good economic record of the government means that it's unlikely Labour will lose the next general election. The Conservatives persisting unpopularity will also mean they won't form a government anytime soon, some polls have even shown them even with the Liberal Democrats. I think that people will be seeking to reduce the absolute power Labour has at the moment, and in many areas will turn to Liberal Democrats instead of Conservatives.

    Llamas' Predicted changes:

    Labour: 325 -82
    Conservative: 200 +37
    Liberal Democrats: 100 +45

    Government Majority: 77 -82


    Conservative gains will only be in England, the Conservatives might even lose their only Scottish MP. the swing towards the Lib Dems will be in both Scotland and England.

    At the summer break in 2006 (after Iraq has mostly calmed down) Tony Blair will resign after 9 years as Prime Minister. Gordon Brown will take over, Ed Balls will be appointed Chancellor.
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    Brown will never be Prime Minister.
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    (Original post by Amrad)
    Brown will never be Prime Minister.
    Who do you think will take over from Blair then?
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    Presuming the election is in 2005
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    (Original post by Llamas)
    Here's parliament as it stands:

    Polls still show that Tony Blair is considered a good leader (compared to Michael Howard, at least), even with the Iraq mess. This combined with the good economic record of the government means that it's unlikely Labour will lose the next general election. The Conservatives persisting unpopularity will also mean they won't form a government anytime soon, some polls have even shown them even with the Liberal Democrats. I think that people will be seeking to reduce the absolute power Labour has at the moment, and in many areas will turn to Liberal Democrats instead of Conservatives.

    Llamas' Predicted changes:

    Labour: 325 -82
    Conservative: 200 +37
    Liberal Democrats: 100 +45

    Government Majority: 77 -82


    Conservative gains will only be in England, the Conservatives might even lose their only Scottish MP. the swing towards the Lib Dems will be in both Scotland and England.

    At the summer break in 2006 (after Iraq has mostly calmed down) Tony Blair will resign after 9 years as Prime Minister. Gordon Brown will take over, Ed Balls will be appointed Chancellor.
    Reading news about the Lib Dem's current success with by-elections it seems they are doing pretty well against an electoral system which works against them.

    We may also see a coalition once again in Wales, despite the 'Welsh Labour' doing quite well.

    I hope the Lib Dems keep it up
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    My Predictions:

    Labour 334 -73

    Conservative 223 +60

    Liberal Democrat 68 +13
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    I think Labour will lose seats to Lib Dems, the gap between Conservates and Lib Dems will nearly disapear, and the gap between those two and Labour won't be massive. I think my area will still have a Labour MP, cus everyone loves John Mann!
 
 
 
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