When Le Pen wins next year, the EU is finished

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MeYou2Night
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I said Brexit would happen, I said Trump would happen and now I'm saying Le Pen will happen. When she wins next year, the EU is over.

Especially as Merkel will be kicked out too

Thoughts?
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Rakas21
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(Original post by MeYou2Night)
I said Brexit would happen, I said Trump would happen and now I'm saying Le Pen will happen. When she wins next year, the EU is over.

Especially as Merkel will be kicked out too

Thoughts?
The binary nature of the French presidential process does present an opportunity (though your assuming France would vote out in a referendum) however i can't see Merkel losing..

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At any rate, i think the EU will survive even if it reduces in membership. Germany will not give up its power.
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MeYou2Night
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The binary nature of the French presidential process does present an opportunity (though your assuming France would vote out in a referendum) however i can't see Merkel losing..

Image

At any rate, i think the EU will survive even if it reduces in membership. Germany will not give up its power.

Youre right,it is "easier" per say in France for a Le Pen type to win that it is in Germany due the political system.However I have German family and they think merkel will be booted out.
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Stalin
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(Original post by MeYou2Night)
I said Brexit would happen, I said Trump would happen and now I'm saying Le Pen will happen. When she wins next year, the EU is over.

Especially as Merkel will be kicked out too

Thoughts?
Aside from the fact that you claim to have correctly predicted the Brexit vote and the American election, what is your reasoning behind Marine winning the French election?
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SomeGuyHere
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There's too much political will to keep it alive. Even if France leaves it won't end the EU. It'll change, sure, but the idea towards grater intergeneration isn't dying. It's one reason I think the UK did the right thing by voting out.

Although I wouldn't have voted for trump (or at all given the choices) I did expect him to win as well.

As it stands at the moment I think she will win but France might not vote out if given the choice. Way too early to tell what's going to happen. There is anger after the Lisbon treaty (it was what they turned down in 2004 with a different name) but we will see.

I do think the Euro is done. That was a train wreck. It'll be interested to see the result of Italy's referendum.
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MeYou2Night
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(Original post by Stalin)
Aside from the fact that you claim to have correctly predicted the Brexit vote and the American election, what is your reasoning behind Marine winning the French election?
The same reasons brexit and trump happened, people have had enough of liberal metropolitan elites. They feel left behind and forgotten by globalisation. Brexit, Trump and Le Pen let them show this. It isnt suprising that far right movements and gaining support across Europe in France, Germany, Austria, holland etc is it? The liberal left only have themselves to blame for this.

. My german family so the same thing and that they believe Merkel will be kicked out in Germany.
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Stalin
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(Original post by MeYou2Night)
The same reasons brexit and trump happened, people have had enough of liberal metropolitan elites. They feel left behind and forgotten by globalisation. Brexit, Trump and Le Pen let them show this. It isnt suprising that far right movements and gaining support across Europe in France, Germany, Austria, holland etc is it? The liberal left only have themselves to blame for this.

. My german family so the same thing and that they believe Merkel will be kicked out in Germany.
I think that's an overly simplistic view. There is a comparison to be made between UK voters and American voters vis-à-vis immigration, however, the same phenomenon, whether 'the islands are full' or 'build the wall' talk is rather quiet in France.

Some people in France - 30%~ - may have had enough of liberal metropolitan elites, but the rest will support Fillon, or the leftist candidate if he/she manages to make it past the first round, over Le Pen.

The problem with Le Pen is she has two core problems: she shares her father's name and the Front National is still called the Front National. Her name and the name of her party are synonymous with racism in France - and until they elect a new leader with a different name, and rebrand the party, I would be shocked if the NF ever turned their 30% into a majority.

Regarding Merkel, I think there is a considerably stronger case to be made that we will witness a shock in Germany than in France.
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Aladdinsaaane
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Well at the moment it seems like Fillon will win. To be honest I dont know why Le Pen is considered more right wing than Fillon. They both seem to have the same anti Islamisation stance but Fillon also has very right wing economic policies which the FN does not.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Stalin)
I think that's an overly simplistic view. There is a comparison to be made between UK voters and American voters vis-à-vis immigration, however, the same phenomenon, whether 'the islands are full' or 'build the wall' talk is rather quiet in France.

Some people in France - 30%~ - may have had enough of liberal metropolitan elites, but the rest will support Fillon, or the leftist candidate if he/she manages to make it past the first round, over Le Pen.

The problem with Le Pen is she has two core problems: she shares her father's name and the Front National is still called the Front National. Her name and the name of her party are synonymous with racism in France - and until they elect a new leader with a different name, and rebrand the party, I would be shocked if the NF ever turned their 30% into a majority.

Regarding Merkel, I think there is a considerably stronger case to be made that we will witness a shock in Germany than in France.
Although i agree that Le Pen will likely lose its worth noting that Fillon is economically the candidate furthest to the right than France has had for some time. The danger is that although Hollande's voters can stomach the UMP, once they learn and hear more about Fillon's economic beliefs they may either not bother to vote or find Le Pen's socialist economic policies to be much more bearable.

I therefore disagree with your later point on the basis that the binary nature of the French system makes Le Pen much more dangerous once the campaign against Fillon really begins.
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Stalin
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Although i agree that Le Pen will likely lose its worth noting that Fillon is economically the candidate furthest to the right than France has had for some time. The danger is that although Hollande's voters can stomach the UMP, once they learn and hear more about Fillon's economic beliefs they may either not bother to vote or find Le Pen's socialist economic policies to be much more bearable.
He's the candidate furthest to the right that France has had since Sarkozy, which was five years ago.

I therefore disagree with your later point on the basis that the binary nature of the French system makes Le Pen much more dangerous once the campaign against Fillon really begins.
Except Le Pen and her party are synonymous with racism - until they elect someone with a different name and rebrand the party as something as simple as the French National Party, their chances of ever acquiring the majority of the vote are incredibly slim.

Merkel, on the other hand, faces the backlash from voters vis-à-vis the migrant issue - and that, in my opinion, will be enough to tip the balance in favour of a new coalition, which will obviously include the AfD.
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SaucissonSecCy
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Expect massive assaults on the truth by the establishment from media and politics, to make sure the people are told what they truly want, and returned to their 'true wishes' by their benevolent overlords.

Just kindly subverting everything we used to hold dear, ie democracy, to keep them away from 'the cancer of populism'(ie representative democracy)

Then the progressive utopia, replete with all it's venality, hypocrisy, and sociopathic undertones, can continue merrily along.

I'm getting down now since the Austrian fiasco. I thought liberty and democracy were back but it is a long road, they are keeping the lies up. Keeping their claws in, with monumental selfishness and contempt for our rights and freedoms.

It is so obvious what people want now, all over the west.
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SaucissonSecCy
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Although i agree that Le Pen will likely lose its worth noting that Fillon is economically the candidate furthest to the right than France has had for some time. The danger is that although Hollande's voters can stomach the UMP, once they learn and hear more about Fillon's economic beliefs they may either not bother to vote or find Le Pen's socialist economic policies to be much more bearable.

I therefore disagree with your later point on the basis that the binary nature of the French system makes Le Pen much more dangerous once the campaign against Fillon really begins.
Le Pen won't lose, without a stitch up, and no way will Merkel win. the silent majority of Europe simply does not want this direction.
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the bear
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(Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
It is so obvious what people want now, all over the west.
it is certainly obvious what you want.
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imaqt
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Polling at 33%

enough said....

Trump was polling at 46% btw

Brexit was polling at 48%
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SaucissonSecCy
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(Original post by the bear)
it is certainly obvious what you want.
Let me guess, fascism right?

If so, You've swallowed too much msm propaganda.

This is not specifically about you, but to people representing a kind of groupthink on the other side of the case, I wish that they would get this;

I want the end of the EU, and the return of the nation state(non-ethnically determined, can't believe I even feel I have to make this qualification, but you know how they are...) and representative democracy.

The return of honesty and transparency, and to disentangle the corrupt media, corporate and political relationships that have so undermined independent, objective and truthful perspectives on our collective predicament reaching and informing people.

When will people wake up to the corrupt and sinister aspects of the political orthodoxy of the last decades, instead of portraying it like a faultless utopia with a default right to the moral high ground, now cruelly wrecked by fascists?

They are so superficial, misinformed and dogmatic it is depressing.
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the bear
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(Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
Let me guess, fascism right?

.


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SaucissonSecCy
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Wow, you think Marine Le Pen is a fascist. She isn't. She's a humanist patriot.
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neal95
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That Austrian wouldn't have done much for the collapse of the eu cause anyway as by all accounts he seemed an eu stooge
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Trinculo
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Without France, the EU would be as dead as fried chicken, no matter what the political will,

France & Britain together are over a quarter of the EU budget contributions. There is no way Germany can pick up the tab for the difference. Without Britain as it is, they're going to have a pretty much insurmountable black hole.
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SaucissonSecCy
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(Original post by neal95)
That Austrian wouldn't have done much for the collapse of the eu cause anyway as by all accounts he seemed an eu stooge
Hofer? Sure you don't mean the green party candidate?
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