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Could success kill the Tory Party? Watch

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    Just s thought that occurred to me today.

    Could the biggest danger to the Conservative party be a gargantuam success in the 2020 GE which unbalances the political framework- and by gargantuan I mean say 450 plus seats?

    This due to the implosion of labour, boundary changes and Brexit (presuming things remain relatively steady)

    If such a result were to happen could it keep itself together?
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    They had a large majority under Thatcher and it wasn't success that lead to losing in 1997, it was failure: the poll tax did for her, and Black Wednesday did for Major.

    Given there is no majority for any form of Brexit, and May's now saying 'who cares about economic success if we can keep the **** out' (slightly paraphrased), it's going to be failure again. Exactly when that is depends on when there's an official opposition worthy of the name.
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    I don't really consider a large electoral mandate to be a threat to the party, you tend to find internally that people accept consensus and get on with it so if May wins a massive mandate on the basis of x oir y then opposition to it will melt away as new MP's tend to be loyal.

    The interesting to note is that typically mid term there are a large number of people who don't know who they'll vote for but often say the opposition or a minor party in polling before going back to their previous vote as we get closer to the election. It will be interesting to see given their existing lead whether an election would produce another surge to them, if so then the gap could be close to 20% (in FPTP terms that would be seismic).
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    (Original post by unprinted)
    They had a large majority under Thatcher and it wasn't success that lead to losing in 1997, it was failure: the poll tax did for her, and Black Wednesday did for Major.

    Given there is no majority for any form of Brexit, and May's now saying 'who cares about economic success if we can keep the wogs out' (slightly paraphrased), it's going to be failure again. Exactly when that is depends on when there's an official opposition worthy of the name.
    Interestingly a lot of polling suggests that Major still had the economic lead heading into the 97 election. The reason Blair won so big is because instead of insulting the Tories, Blair's message related to the proceeds of growth. In essense he avoided that debate by basically saying 'the Tories were right about the economy but here's how we can give the benefits of growth to you'.
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    (Original post by unprinted)
    They had a large majority under Thatcher and it wasn't success that lead to losing in 1997, it was failure: the poll tax did for her, and Black Wednesday did for Major.

    Given there is no majority for any form of Brexit, and May's now saying 'who cares about economic success if we can keep the wogs out' (slightly paraphrased), it's going to be failure again. Exactly when that is depends on when there's an official opposition worthy of the name.
    Largely agree but there were obviously very different dynamics in play then. I can also see May putting off actually the single market (by agreeing to pay a sum for instance ) and allowing a rift to open up between those who want to leave it (possibly including a new batch of northern MPs) and the old guard who want to stay in.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Just s thought that occurred to me today.

    Could the biggest danger to the Conservative party be a gargantuam success in the 2020 GE which unbalances the political framework- and by gargantuan I mean say 450 plus seats?

    This due to the implosion of labour, boundary changes and Brexit (presuming things remain relatively steady)

    If such a result were to happen could it keep itself together?
    The Consevative party has pretty much morphed into UKIP.

    They've gone from being a party of being obsessed with the economy to being a 'boo Johnny Foriegner' party.
    Heck we even have ministers ****ging off our diplomats in public because they didn't think Brexit would be an easy process...

    My hope is that decent tories like Soubry, Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke desert it and join with the Lib Dems and Labour moderates.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Interestingly a lot of polling suggests that Major still had the economic lead heading into the 97 election. The reason Blair won so big is because instead of insulting the Tories, Blair's message related to the proceeds of growth. In essense he avoided that debate by basically saying 'the Tories were right about the economy but here's how we can give the benefits of growth to you'.
    Not really.

    As well as Blair's charisma and slick marketing, the tories were seen as bitterly divided and hopelessly incompetent (as Labour are now).

    There's were countless stories of sleaze involving Tory MPs and they were still haunted by Black Wednesday.

    People no longer trusted the tories and wanted a change after 18 years of Tory government.

    Blair mair certainly played on the 'we want a Britain for all our people, not just the privileged few' line which painted the tories as a party out of touch.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Interestingly a lot of polling suggests that Major still had the economic lead heading into the 97 election. The reason Blair won so big is because instead of insulting the Tories, Blair's message related to the proceeds of growth. In essense he avoided that debate by basically saying 'the Tories were right about the economy but here's how we can give the benefits of growth to you'.
    I don't believe the first bit: the Tory's strong opinion poll lead went straight after Black Wednesday and never came back. From that point, it was a dead Government walking, and they knew it.

    Labour avoided any 'tax and spend' attacks from the Tories on economics by saying 'See their spending plans? We'll do the same', hence the economic issues of their first couple of years - even Ken Clarke thought his own announced spending plans were too tough.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The Consevative party has pretty much morphed into UKIP.

    They've gone from being a party of being obsessed with the economy to being a 'boo Johnny Foriegner' party.
    Heck we even have ministers ****ging off our diplomats in public because they didn't think Brexit would be an easy process...
    What minister? We had IDS ****ging him off but he's a backbencher now.

    My hope is that decent tories like Soubry, Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke desert it and join with the Lib Dems and Labour moderates.
    Soubry is probably the only one who belongs in the Lib Dems. About thirty need to go and join Ukip. But they're just a vocal minority.

    The Tories are still relatively moderate.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    I can also see May putting off actually the single market (by agreeing to pay a sum for instance ) and allowing a rift to open up between those who want to leave it (possibly including a new batch of northern MPs) and the old guard who want to stay in.
    If I weren't living here, I'd be amused by the way that there is nothing May can do that will keep all of her party happy. The head-bangers demand hard Brexit, no matter what the cost, while the sensible ones want to have an economy.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    What minister? We had IDS ****ging him off but he's a backbencher now.



    Soubry is probably the only one who belongs in the Lib Dems. About thirty need to go and join Ukip. But they're just a vocal minority.

    The Tories are still relatively moderate.
    They're not acting moderate at all.
    Remember the reaction of the Tory MPs including the front benches to the High Court judges? Sajid Javid publcially criticised a member of the public for exercising her legal right to take the government to court.

    May refused to defend our judiciary as did the justice secretary.

    They may be moderate themselves but they are more than happy to pander to the angry, nationalist, UKIP feeling in large parts of the country.

    They've lost all care about the economy and instead seem to be pursuing a fall of the edge of the cliff Brexit.
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    Success definitely does create its own problems, and I think we may well see big problems arising from people who feel disenfranchised by the incompetence of the opposition. Still, I suppose these are the problems a political party wants to have.

    From my perspective, the party isn't doing a lot at the moment to further the ideals that I - as a fairly wet, Cameronian liberal conservative hold. So I'm not really sure how overjoyed I would be with an enormous majority and Theresa May given free reign to do what she pleases (which seems to be, at the moment, trying in vain to satisfy the ******** right of the party).
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    (Original post by unprinted)
    They had a large majority under Thatcher and it wasn't success that lead to losing in 1997, it was failure: the poll tax did for her, and Black Wednesday did for Major.
    Well the poll tax was her thinking she could do anything.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The Consevative party has pretty much morphed into UKIP.
    Is anybody right of centre not turning into UKIP as UKIP tacks left?
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Well the poll tax was her thinking she could do anything.
    Actually the poll tax was the result of focus groups telling her that todays council tax system would be unpopular to introduce. That was at the time perceived as the better option.

    Clearly underestimated how many wolves were circling though.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Is anybody right of centre not turning into UKIP as UKIP tacks left?
    UKIP has tacked so left that it has elected an arch Thatcherite who wants to privatise the NHS as its leader.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Actually the poll tax was the result of focus groups telling her that todays council tax system would be unpopular to introduce. That was at the time perceived as the better option.
    A rates revaluation - i.e. property taxes coming a bit closer to the reality of property prices - in Scotland proved unsurprisingly unpopular amongst Tory supporters there and one was overdue in England and Wales.

    So it was a case of Something Must Be Done.

    One of the myths of the Tory right has long been that if local election voters all had to pay for Labour policies, far fewer of them would vote for Labour. So that something became Everyone Must Pay, i.e. the Poll Tax.

    I find it hard to believe that any informed focus group preferred it: it was proved enormously unpopular in Scotland when introduced there - it's basically what killed the Tories off in Scotland for years - but she kept on and introduced it in England and Wales too.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Actually the poll tax was the result of focus groups telling her that todays council tax system would be unpopular to introduce. That was at the time perceived as the better option.

    Clearly underestimated how many wolves were circling though.
    Thatcher was too arrogant to listen to anyone about how bad the tool tax would be. It was introduced a year earlier in Scotland and was very unpopular but Thatcter ignored the warnings and imposed it on the rest of the country.

    Brexit could do the same to the Tories if it goes badly and the economy goes down the pan. I think May is under the impression everyone that voted Brexit did so with ideological zeal and will put up with a worse economy, lower wages, higher inflation and being China's plaything.
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    The Tories are likely to win in 2020, but they won't win this huge landslide that people are talking about.

    At best they can increase their majority to something more comfortable than they have at the moment but large parts of Scotland, Wales and Northern England have deep rooted anti-Conservatism, and even if people don't have much interest in Labour, they won't vote Tory because the government since 2010 has done nothing to try and appeal to these communities.

    The brunt of austerity was felt in the north and devolved administrations that were poorer and more reliant on public services and the public sector for employment. The generally perceived Tory attitude to these areas is that it's their own fault for being reliant on the state and they are lazy and have to start working harder if they want to be as well off as the south. This probably plays out well amongst Tory audiences to justify their policies, but it makes it harder for Tory candidates to win hearts and minds on the doorstep. In lots of northern areas the Tory candidate won't even go out knocking on doors as they will just get abuse. And whilst the Tories like to make the argument that the Labour politicians around Corbyn are an out-of-touch well-off metropolitan elite who only pretend to care about the north, it won't win the northerners over to the Tories who cannot help put be perceived as a rich out of touch southern public school set who actively despise the north. Also in the past two Conservative governments, the north has gone backwards and to really convince voters they will need to deliver some actual policy success that makes peoples lives better in the north.

    The only real angle the Conservatives have to try and outcompete Labour in the north is the immigrant angle and the argument that Labour are soft on migration, the Tories are tough on migration. The problem in 2020 will be that immigration will almost certainly be very high around then as people rush to get in before Brexit, possibly the Calais jungle will be relocated to the UK if the French stop co-operating with us over border control, and people that have concerns about immigration will have seen 10 years of high immigration under the Conservatives with Theresa May unable to duck responsibility as the Home Secretary and then PM, so she will have little credibility to fight the election on her toughness on migration compared to Labour. UKIP will at least be authentic, but they might not make the surge some people think - the party is struggling for funds and members and without Farage it may have reached a ceiling.

    There's a long way to go to 2020 but 3 and a bit years out my guess would be the Tories chipping away a handful of seats from Labour, the Lib Dems winning a handful of seats back from the Tories, SNP remaining dominant in Scotland and Labour ending up with a reduced number of seats but not annihilated, even if their vote share in the kind of marginals they have to win to get a majority back ends up reaching worryingly low levels. So a Tory win with a majority of maybe 30 to 60.

    There is then potential for political change, as Brexit will present a lot of difficulties for whoever is in power, Corbyn will move on and the Tories will have then had a decade in power and start being blamed for everything even if it is not their fault, so as we move toward 2025 the argument "its time for change" will start to become more and more powerful.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The Consevative party has pretty much morphed into UKIP.

    They've gone from being a party of being obsessed with the economy to being a 'boo Johnny Foriegner' party.
    Heck we even have ministers ****ging off our diplomats in public because they didn't think Brexit would be an easy process...

    My hope is that decent tories like Soubry, Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke desert it and join with the Lib Dems and Labour moderates.
    I voted Labour last time around, would never vote for Corbyn and would rather vote BNP then Lib Dems. Id rather have a tory majority of 100 than a lib dem government
 
 
 
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