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How would you negotiate Brexit ? What would you do ? Watch

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Why?
    a clean brexit is what is needed and then do a deal after the clean brexit.
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    (Original post by l'etranger)
    Given that we import more from Europe, than we export to Europe, this is not true.
    We import milk and export Scotch. We will still import milk if we leave the EU and there will be a lot of political pressure not to put prices up by imposing tariffs. If the EU imposes high tariffs on Scotch, Europeans will drink Irish whiskey or brandy.

    The impact on trade doesn't merely depend on its volume but on how resistant it is.

    At this point Brexiteers nearly always descend into nostalgia and whatever commodity it is said we will still import, they decide we will rebuild our domestic production even if we haven't been self-sufficient in that commodity for decades or in the case of most agricultural products, centuries.
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    (Original post by l'etranger)
    Given that we import more from Europe, than we export to Europe, this is not true.
    Given that 50% of our trade goes into the EU market, your logic is false and fallacious.
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    (Original post by knightchildish)
    Given that 50% of our trade goes into the EU market, your logic is false and fallacious.
    They're not mutually exclusive. It really pisses me off how the left have managed to create this perception that they are the intelligent ones given their reliance on memes and lies.


    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    We import milk and export Scotch. We will still import milk if we leave the EU and there will be a lot of political pressure not to put prices up by imposing tariffs. If the EU imposes high tariffs on Scotch, Europeans will drink Irish whiskey or brandy.

    The impact on trade doesn't merely depend on its volume but on how resistant it is.

    At this point Brexiteers nearly always descend into nostalgia and whatever commodity it is said we will still import, they decide we will rebuild our domestic production even if we haven't been self-sufficient in that commodity for decades or in the case of most agricultural products, centuries.
    If the tariffs are raised (something I do not support) it will give domestic dairy farmers a competitive advantage.
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    (Original post by Therec00)
    Here's what I would do :

    Give us access to trade and the single market

    Let us make our own immigration laws


    Walks out the room
    When you grow up, then steer away from a career that involves any element of negotiation. Truly terrible.
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    (Original post by sdotd)
    a clean brexit is what is needed and then do a deal after the clean brexit.
    An immediate Brexit results in extreme instability and no legal obligation to not raise tarrifs ect.. in the meantime. It's a horrid idea, even Farage only said it because it plays well.
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    (Original post by l'etranger)
    They're not mutually exclusive. It really pisses me off how the left have managed to create this perception that they are the intelligent ones given their reliance on memes and lies.




    If the tariffs are raised (something I do not support) it will give domestic dairy farmers a competitive advantage.
    But we do not have enough dairy production to cover UK demand and haven't done so for more than a century. There is a reason Canadian cheddar and Danish, Irish and NZ butter have been leading brands for decades.

    As I say the Brexiteers' answer is always a nostalgic recreation of home industries that haven't satisfied our needs in the case of dairy products since the 1870s.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    But we do not have enough dairy production to cover UK demand and haven't done so for more than a century. There is a reason Canadian cheddar and Danish, Irish and NZ butter have been leading brands for decades.
    If the Europeans were to double the price of their dairy over night, UK production would increase, this is just how free markets work.
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    (Original post by Therec00)
    Here's what I would do :

    Give us access to trade and the single market

    Let us make our own immigration laws


    Walks out the room
    Clean brexit
    Lower corporation tax
    Lower business rates
    Somehow maintain financial passporting (top eu negotiator has said he wants this)
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    (Original post by sdotd)
    a clean brexit is what is needed and then do a deal after the clean brexit.
    That would be an utter disaster. Why stress the economy like that? Its in nobodys interest not to do a controlled movement to wherever we are going. Your method would just create even more uncertainty.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    When you grow up, then steer away from a career that involves any element of negotiation. Truly terrible.
    What if we try a "greater good" approach ?

    Say it will be better for THEM if they give us a good deal.

    Actually this should have been done during the referendum. Said what is best for Europe, not just Britain.
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    (Original post by l'etranger)
    If the Europeans were to double the price of their dairy over night, UK production would increase, this is just how free markets work.
    It doesn't work like that.

    To increase production involves persuading farmers to invest in new stock and new equipment and to convert arable to grassland. Production would increase slightly but most farmers would carry on at historical levels of production unless they were convinced that the market had changed permanently.

    Do you realise that in the first three years of the war UK milk production fell despite government policy to switch from meat to milk production?

    Are you aware of the Norwegian butter crisis of 2011

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_butter_crisis
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    It doesn't work like that.

    To increase production involves persuading farmers to invest in new stock and new equipment and to convert arable to grassland. Production would increase slightly but most farmers would carry on at historical levels of production unless they were convinced that the market had changed permanently.

    Do you realise that in the first three years of the war UK milk production fell despite government policy to switch from meat to milk production?

    Are you aware of the Norwegian butter crisis of 2011

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_butter_crisis
    The reason why milk production is so low if due to how unprofitable it is, if the market price were to rise due to tariffs or constraints on imports, farmers would have more reason to increase production.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    In year to June 289,000 non-EU nationals immigrated to the UK. These are the people May theoretically has control over.

    There were 44,323 claims for asylum. Only about one quarter are ultimately successful. Only 10% of asylum claims are made at ports. The other 90% of claims are made as a reaction to some form of immigration enforcement action (immigration arrest, criminal arrest, failure to grant extension visa)

    The Tier 2 general visa (supposedly the primary route for highly skilled non-EU migrants) has a quota of 20700 per year. The monthly quota cap has been reached only, I think twice, in the last 5 years, the first time being June 2015. There were 3169 available in December 2016. Only 1866 were taken up.

    But this is the nub. Whilst the primary method of getting "a work permit" is under-subscribed, 164,000 work related visas were issued (down from 168,000 the previous years).

    The UK is a house with more back doors than front, but the anti-immigration lobby continues to concentrate on guarding those front doors.
    Ah, excellent.

    My own opinion is that asylum should be reduced close to zero (exceptions for people who risked their lives for us like Gurkhas or Afghan translators) and immigration from most non-EU nations should also be close to zero.

    For the EU, developed Anglosphere and Tigers i would have a relatively free immigration system whereby subject to proof of no criminal record and GCSE grade A-C equivalent i would allow citizens to essentially purchase residency. If we want to increase the number of immigrants we lower the cost, if we want it reduced we raise it. It also largely filters immigration to those with capital to invest in a business or those who were being paid for a highly skilled role.

    Solves most cultural issues (largely white christian/atheist) while allowing large numbers and getting rid of the bottom end.
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    (Original post by l'etranger)
    The reason why milk production is so low if due to how unprofitable it is, if the market price were to rise due to tariffs or constraints on imports, farmers would have more reason to increase production.
    A dairy farm is not a factory running below capacity. To increase production you need to buy more cows. If the cows are turned out to grass, then the farmer will only lay to grass enough land for the cows he has. If the herd increases he will have to buy or rent land or convert land from another crop. He will have a milking parlour equipped for his size of herd. If he buys more cows, he will need a bigger milking parlour. All that capital investment has a cost and a risk factor. You have to satisfy the farmer that the extra income from the extra cows is worth putting hundreds of thousands of pounds of probably borrowed capital at risk.
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    (Original post by scrotgrot)
    That is EEA/EFTA apart from the immigration.

    But net EU migration (not even permanent residence!) is under 200,000 and has not gone over that since 2004. It stands to reason it will continue to go down as eastern countries develop.

    So what's the problem? Keep free movement.
    EFTA requires ECJ membership and that is not something that i can condone and based on post Brexit polling neither would a majority of Leave voters. It's something between EEA and Canada.

    I'm not massively against free movement but seeing Merkel's open border go unchallenged with the third world, i do see the merit of some controls albeit i don't want the number reduced.
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    (Original post by Therec00)
    What if we try a "greater good" approach ?

    Say it will be better for THEM if they give us a good deal.

    Actually this should have been done during the referendum. Said what is best for Europe, not just Britain.
    Both sides will want a good deal. They can make up their own minds what it looks like for them. No p[oint demanding or threatening as that will have more chance of making them less inclined to deal.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Ah, excellent.
    What about the 1014 asylum seekers from India in 2015, the 1110 from Bangladesh, the 1519 Albanians, the 133 Jamaicans fleeing the tyrannical rule of Queen Elizabeth II and the 78 Kenyans? The number fleeing EU persecution was only 240 (100 of those were Poles). Presumably the 34 Yanks will rise in the next year.

    Interestingly there are very low levels of persecution in Cyprus, generally only one refugee a year from Northern Cyprus whilst around 8 Canadians flee a year.
 
 
 
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