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May's embarrassing capitulation Watch

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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    Membership of the single market isn't something you negotiate.

    It's a set of rules that underpin the functioning of the "market": free movement of goods, services, capital and people. It's a "single market" because it represents a domestic market like the market of a nation state. It's only within nation states that goods, services, capital and people can move freely without any regulatory controls.

    If you impose regulatory controls on any of those then you're no longer part of the single market. You can still look to sign a trade deal with it as an external partner but you're not participating in it.

    Saying we should have negotiated access to the single market is not understanding what the single market is. What you probably mean is, she should try to negotiate a trade deal that gives very preferential access to the UK when it is outside, ie the UK imposes regulatory controls on the free movement of people so it isn't inside the market, but still retains tariff free trade on goods, free movement of capital and services, and is part of all the EU schemes on cross-border enforcement. That is still something that she can try to negotiate although other EU countries will probably not agree with it.

    The other side to this is that non-tariff barriers (eg things like regulatory standards) are generally much more significant than actual tariffs in terms of barriers to trade. But in practice, you create a non-tariff barrier the moment you have a different rule than that of the single market. So you can't 'negotiate access' to these, you either say we will copy the EU's product standards rules, which gives businesses certainty that everything they produce for the UK will be up to the standards allowable for sale in the EU, or you say the UK has the right to set its own regulatory standards, which means the moment you start diverging from those rules you have different standards and so have a non-tariff barrier which in practical terms means you need to pass some system of testing and verification before selling to the EU, which will be a cost born by UK firms that want to export to the EU.
    Very much in agreement with your explanation of the single market. On non-tariff barriers, it is important to note that the vast majority of businesses and indeed the majority of our exports are not headed to the EU. Nonetheless, firms exporting to the EU from the UK will simply do what other firms across the world do when they export to another market with different regulatory standards to their own...meet them. It's not that hard unless the EU makes it hard (which in that case will make the EU noncompetitive). Countries all across the world export to and import from one another without trying to harmonise their regulatory standards.
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    (Original post by Sycatonne23)
    Nonetheless, firms exporting to the EU from the UK will simply do what other firms across the world do when they export to another market with different regulatory standards to their own...meet them. It's not that hard unless the EU makes it hard (which in that case will make the EU noncompetitive). Countries all across the world export to and import from one another without trying to harmonise their regulatory standards.
    But the firms have to incur the costs of testing to prove that they meet the EU standards.

    When the details of a US-UK trade deal start getting debated we will probably start hearing a reversal of the arguments on that have been talked about in the context of the EU. My guess is a lot of the Remainers who are centre-left/lefties, will oppose the trade deal with the US as it is likely to involve harmonising standards in a way that is much more like the US: they will push hard for reductions in food safety, environmental protections and working rights protections, and likely push for the UK opening the NHS to competition from US providers. But the right-wingers who supported Brexit will likely be driving very hard for this and tell us it is essential that we complete a trade deal with the richest country in the world ASAP. It will be the Remainers saying, why? we can still trade with the US, we don't need to surrender our rights to set our own food standards, environmental protections, workers rights and protect our pubic services, it just means our exporters have to meet their rules and they have to meet ours. The Brexiters will be telling us we cannot do without this deal with the US.
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    (Original post by Sycatonne23)
    Moron, most of the 173 countries trade perfectly with extremely low tariffs via WTO rules [...]
    Cretin, they're still much higher than the tariffs in the single market and would severely hurt your undiversified economy.
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    (Original post by TitanicTeutonicPhil)
    Cretin, they're still much higher than the tariffs in the single market and would severely hurt your undiversified economy.
    Certain tariffs like cars are but that's a two way street anyway I'd wager we buy more than we sell to them in that sector.

    Plus let's not forget anything we lose from our deal with the eu from our current position needs to be weighed up against our new deals with other nations around the world, namely the USA


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Certain tariffs like cars are but that's a two way street anyway I'd wager we buy more than we sell to them in that sector.

    Plus let's not forget anything we lose from our deal with the eu from our current position needs to be weighed up against our new deals with other nations around the world, namely the USA


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    That assumes Britain can get a good trade deal with the USA and many other countries.

    The USA knows Britain will lose trade with the EU so is in a weaker position, just because we are on friendly terms with the US doesn't mean they will not try their hardest to get the best deal they can for themselves. Any country Britian deals with will want maximum access to the British economy while giving away as little as possible to theirs. The US will want to sell as much wheat, oil and cars while trying to keep the same things out of their own country from Britain.

    It will be the same with any other country Britian negotiates trade deals with. China will demand to sell its cheap steel endangering British based steel works.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    That assumes Britain can get a good trade deal with the USA and many other countries.

    The USA knows Britain will lose trade with the EU so is in a weaker position, just because we are on friendly terms with the US doesn't mean they will not try their hardest to get the best deal they can for themselves. Any country Britian deals with will want maximum access to the British economy while giving away as little as possible to theirs. The US will want to sell as much wheat, oil and cars while trying to keep the same things out of their own country from Britain.

    It will be the same with any other country Britian negotiates trade deals with. China will demand to sell its cheap steel endangering British based steel works.
    Just like we know a trade deal with the eu will be worse than our current one we know that countries we have no deal with currently will be better.

    It depends how it balances out


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Just like we know a trade deal with the eu will be worse than our current one we know that countries we have no deal with currently will be better.

    It depends how it balances out


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    We have no idea what the trade deals we would get with other countries. They could be worse or better but we would be in a weaker position now because they know we need to find new markets for any trade lost with the EU.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    We have no idea what the trade deals we would get with other countries. They could be worse or better but we would be in a weaker position now because they know we need to find new markets for any trade lost with the EU.
    Sorry but by default new trade deals outside the eu would be better than wto otherwise there is no point making one.

    Also the amount of trade lost won't be known for quite some time.

    Remember most tariffs are 2/3% so not that big a deal it's the 10% on cars etc that is a game changer but that goes both ways and is why the government wants to look at sectors they can make an agreement on as they know full well there is zero point talking about the single market and extremely little point talking about the customs union.




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    (Original post by Maker)
    That assumes Britain can get a good trade deal with the USA and many other countries.

    The USA knows Britain will lose trade with the EU so is in a weaker position, just because we are on friendly terms with the US doesn't mean they will not try their hardest to get the best deal they can for themselves. Any country Britian deals with will want maximum access to the British economy while giving away as little as possible to theirs. The US will want to sell as much wheat, oil and cars while trying to keep the same things out of their own country from Britain.

    It will be the same with any other country Britian negotiates trade deals with. China will demand to sell its cheap steel endangering British based steel works.
    A lot of it comes down to how protectionist the economies we try negotiate with are. The US-Austrialian deal for example was complete in 15 months because Australia wanted no tarrifs on any part of its economy while the US only wanted to protect sugar.

    The important thing for the UK is that these trade deals include services. Any deal which wants goods but not services included should be rejected because as much as people have a fetish for manufacturing, our strength is in services.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    A lot of it comes down to how protectionist the economies we try negotiate with are. The US-Austrialian deal for example was complete in 15 months because Australia wanted no tarrifs on any part of its economy while the US only wanted to protect sugar.

    The important thing for the UK is that these trade deals include services. Any deal which wants goods but not services included should be rejected because as much as people have a fetish for manufacturing, our strength is in services.
    America under Trump wants to be more protectionists. Trump wants a trade deal with the UK because he wants us to buy US produced stuff and services so more Americans will have jobs, what he doesn't want are products and services from the UK that competes with those in the US.

    So the US won't want cars, financial services, food or much else from Britian because both countries produce very similar things. Likewise, Britain don't want the same things that can be produced here because that means fewer jobs for Britons.
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    (Original post by paul514)
    Sorry but by default new trade deals outside the eu would be better than wto otherwise there is no point making one.

    Also the amount of trade lost won't be known for quite some time.

    Remember most tariffs are 2/3% so not that big a deal it's the 10% on cars etc that is a game changer but that goes both ways and is why the government wants to look at sectors they can make an agreement on as they know full well there is zero point talking about the single market and extremely little point talking about the customs union.Posted from TSR Mobile
    The British economy and British industry have been configured to operate tariff free with the EU fro 40 years. If tariffs increases for agricultural products up to 40% under WTO rules, most farms will close within weeks unless the govt provides billions more in subsidies than they get now from the CAP.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    The British economy and British industry have been configured to operate tariff free with the EU fro 40 years. If tariffs increases for agricultural products up to 40% under WTO rules, most farms will close within weeks unless the govt provides billions more in subsidies than they get now from the CAP.
    We don't even export much agricultural produce we only produce enough for half our own needs for gods sake lol.

    We will see in two years who is correct


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    (Original post by Maker)
    America under Trump wants to be more protectionists. Trump wants a trade deal with the UK because he wants us to buy US produced stuff and services so more Americans will have jobs, what he doesn't want are products and services from the UK that competes with those in the US.

    So the US won't want cars, financial services, food or much else from Britian because both countries produce very similar things. Likewise, Britain don't want the same things that can be produced here because that means fewer jobs for Britons.
    If that were true there would simply be no deal


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    (Original post by paul514)
    We don't even export much agricultural produce we only produce enough for half our own needs for gods sake lol.

    We will see in two years who is correct


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    Britain exports 16 billion euros of agricultural products to the EUper year. Thats not hardly is it?
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    (Original post by paul514)
    If that were true there would simply be no deal


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    So where do all those people do with all the stuff they made for the EU and now has to find a new market in the US and elsewhere?
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    (Original post by TitanicTeutonicPhil)
    Cretin, they're still much higher than the tariffs in the single market and would severely hurt your undiversified economy.
    Unpatriotic eurofanatic, the EU also trades with those countries without formal trade arrangements under WTO rules and it's not destroying the EU economy is it? My statement wasn't an endorsement of tariffs but simply a repudiation of your nonsensical assertion that we have to have formal trade agreements with each and every single country on the planet to do relatively free trade which is utter nonsense. Do not forget that two of the EU's biggest trading partners, China and the US, trade with the EU under WTO rules. Now obviously preferential trade agreements would be better, but it seems that the conflicting protectionist interests of your member states miserably delays any free trade negotiations.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    But the firms have to incur the costs of testing to prove that they meet the EU standards.

    When the details of a US-UK trade deal start getting debated we will probably start hearing a reversal of the arguments on that have been talked about in the context of the EU. My guess is a lot of the Remainers who are centre-left/lefties, will oppose the trade deal with the US as it is likely to involve harmonising standards in a way that is much more like the US: they will push hard for reductions in food safety, environmental protections and working rights protections, and likely push for the UK opening the NHS to competition from US providers. But the right-wingers who supported Brexit will likely be driving very hard for this and tell us it is essential that we complete a trade deal with the richest country in the world ASAP. It will be the Remainers saying, why? we can still trade with the US, we don't need to surrender our rights to set our own food standards, environmental protections, workers rights and protect our pubic services, it just means our exporters have to meet their rules and they have to meet ours. The Brexiters will be telling us we cannot do without this deal with the US.
    Firms probably won't have to incur a cost because UK regulatory law will not immediately diverge from what EU regulatory law looks like (we've been in this club for 40+ years). As with a US trade agreement, if we have to harmonise our standards to a harmful extent and such that we surrender our sovereignty to a TTIP style international court then I and other Brexiters will firmly oppose it on grounds of national sovereignty just like we opposed the EU on the same grounds.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    So where do all those people do with all the stuff they made for the EU and now has to find a new market in the US and elsewhere?
    Well the first question is how much is lost?

    The second question is what is the exchange rate?

    Those questions are always relevant before having to find new markets and here's why.

    Our currency just 8 years ago was 2 dollars to the pound it was in the 1.30's in the months before brexit and it's now 1.24 I think.

    Currency fluctuations is far more than a few % as a trade tariff (assuming there will be tariffs)

    When we have a low currency we buy more of our own stuff when we have a high currency we buy more of other countries stuff.

    How to you square that with your argument?

    Having said that it takes you back to point 1.

    How much trade are you going to lose 1%, 10%, 100%?

    You can't answer any of these legitimate points they are unknowns.

    The likely hood is post brexit it won't make that much of a difference even the BOE's major doom and gloom predictions showed a very small loss in trade by the time we reached 2030 compared to no brexit.

    Simple government decisions on the economy has bigger effects.

    This is all *******s it's a case of suck it and see


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Well the first question is how much is lost?

    The second question is what is the exchange rate?

    Those questions are always relevant before having to find new markets and here's why.

    Our currency just 8 years ago was 2 dollars to the pound it was in the 1.30's in the months before brexit and it's now 1.24 I think.

    Currency fluctuations is far more than a few % as a trade tariff (assuming there will be tariffs)

    When we have a low currency we buy more of our own stuff when we have a high currency we buy more of other countries stuff.

    How to you square that with your argument?

    Having said that it takes you back to point 1.

    How much trade are you going to lose 1%, 10%, 100%?

    You can't answer any of these legitimate points they are unknowns.

    The likely hood is post brexit it won't make that much of a difference even the BOE's major doom and gloom predictions showed a very small loss in trade by the time we reached 2030 compared to no brexit.

    Simple government decisions on the economy has bigger effects.

    This is all *******s it's a case of suck it and see


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    Its not just trade that will be affected. Its foreign investment. The govt had to do a secret backroom deal with Nissan to keep them in the country so who knows how much taxpayers' money is at risk. Likewise Toyota has said it needs to see how it would survive in Britain which is code for the British govt to start giving them the same sweetheart deal as Nissan.

    Foreign investors will take note and would delay or redirect investment if it looks like Britain is not a good place to access the EU and other markets since no one knows what sort of trade agreements Britain will get with countries outside the EU as well as the EU.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Its not just trade that will be affected. Its foreign investment. The govt had to do a secret backroom deal with Nissan to keep them in the country so who knows how much taxpayers' money is at risk. Likewise Toyota has said it needs to see how it would survive in Britain which is code for the British govt to start giving them the same sweetheart deal as Nissan.

    Foreign investors will take note and would delay or redirect investment if it looks like Britain is not a good place to access the EU and other markets since no one knows what sort of trade agreements Britain will get with countries outside the EU as well as the EU.
    Nissan's deal was assurances on trading conditions that's all we know.

    Anyway a deal like that is easy to do you just give the car maker the tariff for the car.

    It costs a grand total of zero as we get the tariff in reverse when we buy a BMW etc in this hypothetical.

    As for foreign investment again no one knows what it will be or would have been.

    I do know if we do no deal and drop all the business tax's like Hammond suggested to the Germans that would get massive foreign investment


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