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Nicola Sturegon says second referendum is closer for Scotland Watch

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    (Original post by .A_C.)
    Keep on dreaming pal.

    Frankly I'm fed up of thugs vandalising my town again with your deceptive propaganda. If you think your beloved EU ref propaganda was false, your campaign take that to a whole new level!

    Enjoy getting beat again, I look forward to it.
    I didn't "get beat."

    I voted for Brexit, and although I didn't myself have a vote, wanted Scotland to remain in the Union.

    What are you even talking about??
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    (Original post by astutehirstute)
    I think there will be a second referendum and it will take place within a matter of months.

    On Tuesday the Supreme Court makes its Brexit ruling. Everyone has been concentrating on the Parliamentary Approval ruling, but that is a sideshow. The Government has already made provision for it.

    It is the ruling on the Scottish Parliament having to approve Brexit that matters. I am not a lawyer, but lawyers I know and respect tell me that it is going to be very hard for the Court not to rule in favour of the Scottish Government.

    This will cause constitutional chaos. We can have a general election to establish the popular will, but that won't help if Scotland votes to Remain and the rest of the UK for Brexit.

    I can't see any way forward but a second referendum. Either granting Scotland independence, back in the EU (if they will accept them) or the whole of the UK leaving the EU including Scotland, preserved within the Union.

    The other alternative is a reversal of Brexit for the whole UK. Staying within the EU because Scotland says no. But that might lead to the rest of the UK wanting to kick Scotland out, effectively! Imposing some form of second referendum. And can Sturgeon say no to that?

    Either way I think there will be second referendum. Who wins it of course, is another question.
    I'll stick a bet they don't rule in favour of a veto for Scotland.

    I don't see a referendum for Scotland for at least 20 years.


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    (Original post by paul514)
    I'll stick a bet they don't rule in favour of a veto for Scotland.

    I don't see a referendum for Scotland for at least 20 years.


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    Fair enough. How much?

    Just kidding, we'll see soon enough anyway.
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    (Original post by astutehirstute)
    Fair enough. How much?

    Just kidding, we'll see soon enough anyway.
    Well it's out on Tuesday


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    (Original post by Science_Girl)
    To everyone who says we will never get into the EU, it was looking likely (albeit until recently) that Turkey could get in.
    No, it really wasn't. No-one who knew the slightest thing about European politics considered that a likely outcome, or even a potential outcome worth considering except in the mists of the very distant future. The whole thing was a scare story cooked up by the Leave campaign during the referendum to rile-up folk who don't like brown people and/or Muslims.
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    (Original post by astutehirstute)
    I think there will be a second referendum and it will take place within a matter of months.
    I'm guessing you don't follow Scottish politics particularly closely - but at any rate, that is not on the cards. Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out pushing for a referendum at all in 2017. It would take a matter of quite a good few months to secure a Section 30 Order through the UK Parliament, to put arrangements in place and to build towards such a referendum before such a thing could even be held.

    It is the ruling on the Scottish Parliament having to approve Brexit that matters. I am not a lawyer, but lawyers I know and respect tell me that it is going to be very hard for the Court not to rule in favour of the Scottish Government.
    There is no legal position by which the UK Government have to seek the approval of the Scottish Parliament. There is an agreement between the two that the UK Parliament will not normally legislate on devolved issues - this can quite easily be held not to be a normal circumstance and at the heart of it is that foreign affairs - including EU relations - are reserved matters.

    But I don't think it even comes to that.
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    (Original post by Quady)
    Naturally you have your view, but taking exactly the same points you can argue for leave. Basically it comes down to whether you want to be part of a union.

    You call out democracy, but it's very unclear how the UK is more democratic than the EU. This isn't a balanced union, England has 80% of the voting rights.

    I'm not entirely sure how you can argue currency union with the rUK is better than the Euro. Personally my view would be for the Scottish pound so we have monetary policy set for Scotland.

    Fiscal sharing causes arguments both sides of the border depending who is winning at the time.
    While it's entirely rational to say - from a Scottish perspective - that someone can support two unions for very similar reasons, I think that entire argument falls down when you try to compare the two: the UK is immensely more valuable and more integrated into Scottish life.

    The currency question is a straightforward one. The reasons the Euro has not been particularly successful is firstly that it incorporates a range of fairly diverse economies and secondly - but more importantly - it isn't underpinned by a strong common fiscal policy. The pound sterling on the other hand operates as a single currency of a single integrated sovereign state. It's also pretty key in maintaining the closeness of Britain's single domestic market.

    Fiscal sharing may cause disagreements at times. It does so in any state. Indeed, within Scotland, the fairly affluent City of Aberdeen gets rather less in its national revenue grant than other local authorities: these are the strains of any state. However, unless we want to see enormous, recession-creating cuts to public spending in Scotland, or the completely unrealistic option of raising taxes enormously, then Scottish independence - or indeed, broader fiscal autonomy - really is a non-starter.

    There may be a broader argument over whether public spending in Scotland is too high and whether this is actually beneficial. But ultimately we simply could not function in the short term with £10 billion extracted from public revenue effectively overnight.
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    (Original post by Sephiroth)
    All hot air.

    Sturgeon whines about the UK leaving the EU single market and calls it economically catastrophic then wants to leave the UK single market with independence - a country where 64% of its exports go.

    Scotland will be in ruins if they leave. They won't be allowed to join the EU as Spain will veto it and the rest of the UK won't want to give them a free trade deal either.

    The thing is if a vote does happen it is likely to be a win for leavers as anti establishment politics is the new norm. I am just glad I live in England and don't have to worry about this.

    But back to my first point - it won't happen. Democracy isn't constantly rerunning a vote until you get what you want and what Sturgeon is suggesting is anti democratic. The UK government won't allow it.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    While it's entirely rational to say - from a Scottish perspective - that someone can support two unions for very similar reasons, I think that entire argument falls down when you try to compare the two: the UK is immensely more valuable and more integrated into Scottish life.

    The currency question is a straightforward one. The reasons the Euro has not been particularly successful is firstly that it incorporates a range of fairly diverse economies and secondly - but more importantly - it isn't underpinned by a strong common fiscal policy. The pound sterling on the other hand operates as a single currency of a single integrated sovereign state. It's also pretty key in maintaining the closeness of Britain's single domestic market.

    Fiscal sharing may cause disagreements at times. It does so in any state. Indeed, within Scotland, the fairly affluent City of Aberdeen gets rather less in its national revenue grant than other local authorities: these are the strains of any state. However, unless we want to see enormous, recession-creating cuts to public spending in Scotland, or the completely unrealistic option of raising taxes enormously, then Scottish independence - or indeed, broader fiscal autonomy - really is a non-starter.

    There may be a broader argument over whether public spending in Scotland is too high and whether this is actually beneficial. But ultimately we simply could not function in the short term with £10 billion extracted from public revenue effectively overnight.
    The euro has been pretty successful from what I can see, much stronger than stirling than when it was launched. There has been an issue with member state solvency. I'd say the Swiss Franc has been at least as unsucessful in the last decade.

    You're naturally right £10bn cut overnight would hurt.
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    (Original post by Rock Fan)
    Will it happen this time for Scotland? Could it be a different outcome?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-38642213

    Good idea.
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    We'll leave the EU before any second referendum is even timetabled.


    This means the Scots will have to risk leaving the UK without knowing whether they'd be accepted into the EU which is a huge uncertainty for them. I could only see it happening if the UK badly falls into recession and the EU is able to experience a prosperous boom because right now Southern England is subsidising the hell out of Scotland and a failing EU could neither afford to do that, nor would it have the inclination given that the Scots could no longer play the political coquette to Europe in the way they do to us.
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    (Original post by LisaNikita)
    Lmao scotland is a literal joke
    Show us your workings. And could you elaborate on your definition of "literal" in this context. TYVM
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    (Original post by astutehirstute)
    Fair enough. How much?

    Just kidding, we'll see soon enough anyway.
    https://youtu.be/SgpnrOUS2BE


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    She is just stirring it all for her own gain, not her country. If they did get independence when they did they would be on their knees when the oil prices dropped. She is just riding the Scottish Pride wave at the moment. I hate that woman.
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    If this is a serious prospect then the Scottish government need to avoid the trap Alex Salmond fell into and admit to voters that Scottish independence is not an economically viable option as long as Scotland retains the Pound Sterling as its currency.

    On the constitutional issue, it seems clear to me that the Nairn-Anderson thesis on the essentially un-reformable nature of the British state is reaching the point of complete validation, with the United Kingdom appearing more Ruritanian as the days pass. The irony of those claims of democratic accountability is that Scotland would enjoy more formal independence as a small EU member state comprising 1% of that union's population than it currently does as a partner in the Anglo-Scottish Union.
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    Yeah I kinda already saw.

    You would have won your bet, but I am very pleased to be proved wrong. It would have been a hell of a mess if they had found in favour of the Scottish Government.

    So much for my legal advice, he is a successful barrister too. In fact a QC. Just goes to show that one lawyers opinion is as good another. They just spend their time arguing with each other at our expense.
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    I hope Scotland leave the UK. Not sure how soon they'll get another referendum though.
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    (Original post by Rhadamanthus)
    On the constitutional issue, it seems clear to me that the Nairn-Anderson thesis on the essentially un-reformable nature of the British state is reaching the point of complete validation, with the United Kingdom appearing more Ruritanian as the days pass. The irony of those claims of democratic accountability is that Scotland would enjoy more formal independence as a small EU member state comprising 1% of that union's population than it currently does as a partner in the Anglo-Scottish Union.
    The EU is undoubtedly a looser union, which of course accounts for the fact that in any senses it is essentially dysfunctional. In relation to the unreformable nature of the UK constitution, I give you devolution, the Human Rights Act, the creation of the Supreme Court, fixed-term parliaments, a referendum on electoral reform and the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act.

    (Original post by BioStudentx)
    I hope Scotland leave the UK. Not sure how soon they'll get another referendum though.
    Charming.
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    (Original post by BioStudentx)
    I hope Scotland leave the UK.
    Really? I'd have thought these figures would give any pro-independence Scot food for thought:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-38743532

    Scotland "exports" £49.8 billion to the UK annually.

    It exports £4.6 billion to the US.

    It exports a further £11.8 billion to the rest of the non-EU world.

    It exports £12.3 billion to the EU.

    I'd have thought that it was obvious which market the Scots should pay most attention to protecting.
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    Scotland can s*d off in my opinion. Anything to get the rabid SNP out of parliament.
 
 
 
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