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Turkey's U-turn on Syria/Assad (World Economic Forum 2017) watch

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    Since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011/2012, Turkey have made clear their vociferous opposition to Assad, and this has manifested itself in support for the FSA; hosting rebel forces' meetings and leaders; training rebel forces, etc.

    From mid-2016 it became clear that Turkey saw the rise of the Kurds as a bigger threat than Assad, and they directly entered the battleground and quickly captured many towns on the border area (i.e. Jarablus). This quickly turned into an offensive against the SDF (Kurds), which left the U.S. bewildered as they had been supporting the Kurds, but now their NATO allies were directly attacking them.

    Now, Turkey's Deputy PM (Mehmet Simsek) has publicly confirmed that any future resolution to the Syrian conflict is "unrealistic" if it does not include Assad. This was the first time since the Syrian Civil War began that a Turkish official had publicly confirmed that a Syria without Assad is not a "pragmatic" reality, and one that Turkey is prepared to accept.

    A Turkish official suggested publicly for the first time that Turkey would accept a peace deal in Syria’s six-year-old war that would allow Mr. Assad to stay in power.

    The remarks by the official, Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, indicated that Turkey — Syria’s northern neighbor and one of Mr. Assad’s most implacable foes — had softened its position in the interest of finding a solution.

    While Turkey’s government later said that Mr. Simsek’s remarks had been misconstrued, it was clear that he had said a settlement without Mr. Assad would be “not, you know, realistic.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/w...yria-deal.html

    It certainly seems as though with the liberation of Aleppo by the SAA (the last urban stronghold of the rebel forces), the overwhelming majority of the rebel forces have splintered into Salafist-Jihadi groups at worst, and Islamist groups at best.

    In addition, we have seen greater convergence between Russia-Turkey-Iran on Syria, with Turkey happy to prevent the Kurds getting their own state on their border in exchange for supporting Assad.

    Perhaps even more significantly, Trump has made clear that he sees the Syrian Government (alongside Russia) as a useful ally against the main threat in the region (and world): radical Islamic terrorism (in this context ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra/al-Sham, al-Zinki, etc).
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    (Original post by Palmyra)
    Since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011/2012, Turkey have made clear their vociferous opposition to Assad, and this has manifested itself in support for the FSA; hosting rebel forces' meetings and leaders; training rebel forces, etc.

    From mid-2016 it became clear that Turkey saw the rise of the Kurds as a bigger threat than Assad, and they directly entered the battleground and quickly captured many towns on the border area (i.e. Jarablus). This quickly turned into an offensive against the SDF (Kurds), which left the U.S. bewildered as they had been supporting the Kurds, but now their NATO allies were directly attacking them.

    Now, Turkey's Deputy PM (Mehmet Simsek) has publicly confirmed that any future resolution to the Syrian conflict is "unrealistic" if it does not include Assad. This was the first time since the Syrian Civil War began that a Turkish official had publicly confirmed that a Syria without Assad is not a "pragmatic" reality, and one that Turkey is prepared to accept.



    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/w...yria-deal.html

    It certainly seems as though with the liberation of Aleppo by the SAA (the last urban stronghold of the rebel forces), the overwhelming majority of the rebel forces have splintered into Salafist-Jihadi groups at worst, and Islamist groups at best.

    In addition, we have seen greater convergence between Russia-Turkey-Iran on Syria, with Turkey happy to prevent the Kurds getting their own state on their border in exchange for supporting Assad.

    Perhaps even more significantly, Trump has made clear that he sees the Syrian Government (alongside Russia) as a useful ally against the main threat in the region (and world): radical Islamic terrorism (in this context ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra/al-Sham, al-Zinki, etc).

    It's a much more complex situation than most people realise, there are so many sides and nobody supports all the same people. However if Turkey thinks they can gain more influence by joining the Russians against terrorists or the Kurds, you can maybe see why. A ceasefire and agreement will have to be the ultimate solution.
 
 
 
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