Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free

Marine le Pen has a decent shot at winning the French presidency Watch

    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    16
    ReputationRep:
    In recent months it has seemed likely that the runoff round of the French presidential election will come down to Francis Fillon of the establishment right against Le Pen of the populist right.

    Many people have assumed that, as in 2002 when centre-right Jacques Chirac went up against Marine Le Pen's father and won 82.2% of the vote due to left-wingers holding their nose and voting Chirac to block the fascists, the same will happen again this year.

    But I think that's a dicey bet. Francis Fillon has the most obnoxious mix of political views I've ever seen. He's fanatically pro-EU and euro-federalist. But he's also pro-Russian (or at least anti-American) in that way many on the French right have traditionally been. He's been called the French Thatcher because he wants to dismantle French protectionist policies, and just last week he proposed dismantling the French universal healthcare system. Fillon is also against gay marriage and has a whiff of the sort of Catholic fascist strain of European politics that Christopher Hitchens regularly talked about (that Catholic fascist tendency was the Islamism of the 1930s). Fillon claims to be anti-immigration (hoping to pick up votes from Le Pen) but he's really just against black/brown people migration; he's quite happy to have unlimited migration as long as it's from white Europeans within the EU.

    Contrast this to Marine Le Pen. She favours continuing protection for French industries and was witheringly critical of Fillon's plan to sack 500,000 French civil servants. She trashed Fillon's call for dismantling French universal healthcare. She's a secularist, and realistically she's agnostic on gay marriage (unlike Fillon who was part of the fanatical Catholic anti-gay marriage movement a few years ago) and in fact the Fronte Nationale has a strong gay contingent (the deputy leader is gay, iirc).

    So... is the establishment really so blind that they think left-wingers are going to come out in droves to vote for Fillon? He's basically a fascist, in fact he is in reality more fascistic than Le Pen. The left has basically no incentive to vote for Fillon other than for pro-EU reasons, but the French left is already slightly eurosceptic and I don't think the French trade unions will Fillon as a price worth paying (massive cuts in the public sector, abolition of universal healthcare, vicious tearing away of the French social welfare safety net) simply to avoid a referendum on EU membership.

    Ultimately, I hate to have any outcome that encourages the UKIP / pro-Putin global movement but Fillon is pro-Putin anyway. Ultimately the UK's interests are served better by a French leader who doesn't want to punish us for leaving the EU (and indeed better served by a leader who, like me, wants to see more socialistic and protectionist policies, not more neoliberalism tinged with theism and homophobia as is on offer from Fillon).

    Of course, all this may be avoided if Emmanuel Macron gets into the final round with Le Pen; I think Macron would almost certainly win.
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    Pretty sure trump so also been giving her some tips
    • Offline

      20
      The 'left' will vote for Fillon, because the 'left' dislike (ethno-centric) nationalism more than far-right economics. Fillon is a relative newcomer, in that nobody expected him to actually win the nomination, so he hasn't attracted all the bad press that Le Pen has.
      Offline

      13
      ReputationRep:
      The difference being that new political parties and movements aren't as strictly bound my labels as the old guard. The conservatives in the UK will almost always be seen as centre-right, even though their policies fluctuate regularly.

      Le Pen and the FN are left wing in all but name- the only reason anyone even suggests they are right wing is because they are nationalists, which is confused with being right wing (although I admit there's a correlation).
      • Offline

        20
        (Original post by richpanda)
        Le Pen and the FN are left wing in all but name- the only reason anyone even suggests they are right wing is because they are nationalists, which is confused with being right wing (although I admit there's a correlation).
        I suppose you could say that the Front National are left-wing towards (ethnically) French citizens, right-wing towards everyone else. Its hard to pigeonhole fascists as left-wing or right-wing.
        • Thread Starter
        Offline

        16
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by Mathemagicien)
        The 'left' will vote for Fillon, because the 'left' dislike (ethno-centric) nationalism more than far-right economics.
        I disagree with that statement, in the French context. It's true that in the Anglosphere, the left thinks that being patriotic or nationalistic is somewhat disgraceful. But I haven't found that to be the case in France; French left-wingers are often quite patriotic and proud of their "Frenchness".

        Fillon is a relative newcomer, in that nobody expected him to actually win the nomination, so he hasn't attracted all the bad press that Le Pen has.
        He's attracting plenty of it now; his policies are being scrutinised, and he's getting absolutely hammered. His position on abolishing universal healthcare has caused a serious crisis for his candidacy, and his then responding to that crisis by saying (paraphrasing) "But I couldn't possibly be malicious, I am a Christian" has simply piled a new crisis on top of the old one.

        Fillon's policies (sacking half a million French civil servants, abolishing universal healthcare, removing protections for French industry, increasing the retirement age, getting rid of the 35-hour week), these are fundamental red lines. I don't think you really understand the French political context if you think the public sector unions will support Fillon, given his plan to make half a million public sector workers redundant, just because Le Pen proposes to have a referendum on leaving the EU (which she would probably lose anyway).

        Given Fillon is on the wrong side of pretty much every issue, I think it's unsustainable to claim that the left will nonetheless get out there and vote for him based on a stereotype of left-wing views that probably doesn't even hold true in the French context. All Le Pen needs to win, in a Le Pen / Fillon run-off, is for a goodly portion of the left to stay home and not vote. Given how little enthusiasm the French left would have for Fillon (and possibly even burning hostility), that's not a remote prospect
        Offline

        1
        ReputationRep:
        Good, one more step on the road to the collapse of the Western Left.
        • Thread Starter
        Offline

        16
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by Mathemagicien)
        The 'left' will vote for Fillon, because the 'left' dislike (ethno-centric) nationalism more than far-right economics
        In fact, I don't even think that statement holds true in the West. Are you confusing the liberal centre with the left?

        Of course liberals would accept right-wing economics as a price to pay for dissolving national borders because, deep down, they favour both.

        But there are large numbers of left-wingers, even those who are positive toward the EU, who would not accept EU membership if the price was that, for example, the NHS would have to be abolished and private health insurance introduced.
        • Thread Starter
        Offline

        16
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by demaistre)
        Good, one more step on the road to the collapse of the Western Left.
        Is it? If Le Pen is adopting all these left-wing economic positions, perhaps it's more like the left has won?

        Le Pen stood beside the French communists in emphatically opposing Hollande's labour market "reforms" that would make it easier to sack people. In fact, she called it "socially regressive".

        But I suppose if your politics are essentially tribal in nature, and you don't really know anything about policy, then I suppose you would see the "defeat" of the left as being the only consideration, even where in "defeating" the left you'd adopted all of their policies (in other words, the left wins).
        Offline

        18
        ReputationRep:
        What a great time for democracy this period will be remembered for.

        Posted from TSR Mobile
        Offline

        1
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by AlexanderHam)
        Is it? If Le Pen is adopting all these left-wing economic positions, perhaps it's more like the left has won?

        Le Pen stood beside the French communists in emphatically opposing Hollande's labour market "reforms" that would make it easier to sack people. In fact, she called it "socially regressive".

        But I suppose if your politics are essentially tribal in nature, and you don't really know anything about policy, then I suppose you would see the "defeat" of the left as being the only consideration, even where in "defeating" the left you'd adopted all of their policies (in other words, the left wins).
        Frankly that is a secondary concern, if mass uncontrolled immigration continues it won't matter what economic policy you have if your nation state has already been obliterated. Le Pen is the best choice for a nationalist.
        Offline

        16
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by richpanda)
        The difference being that new political parties and movements aren't as strictly bound my labels as the old guard. The conservatives in the UK will almost always be seen as centre-right, even though their policies fluctuate regularly.

        Le Pen and the FN are left wing in all but name- the only reason anyone even suggests they are right wing is because they are nationalists, which is confused with being right wing (although I admit there's a correlation).
        Very true. I'm honestly getting tired of parties being labelled 'far-right' simply for their nationalism. It's become a knee-jerk pejorative that ignores everything else about a party's policies.
        • Community Assistant
        Offline

        15
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by Dandaman1)
        Very true. I'm honestly getting tired of parties being labelled 'far-right' simply for their nationalism. It's become a knee-jerk pejorative that ignores everything else about a party's policies.
        You do realise that the FN describe themselves as far right? Just like the Austrian far right candidate described himself as far right?

        You seem like you need a safe space...
        Offline

        12
        ReputationRep:
        Le Pen will probably win the 1st round of the election but it's unlikely that she would win the second.

        Both Fillon and Macron are around 30 points ahead of her.

        I think most non-FN voters will try to block a Le Pen victory as much as they can.
        Offline

        2
        ReputationRep:
        Right wing conservatives!!!!!!!!!!
        Offline

        14
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by AlexanderHam)
        He's fanatically pro-EU and euro-federalist.
        Not really. This is the same man who campaigned with Seguin against the Maastricht treaty, who wants to do away with Schengen, curb the power of the European commission and describes himself as a sovereigntist who wants a Europe of Nations. He certainly doesn't want to leave the EU but he's not fanatical.

        But you're right that the left will find him toxic. Inversely though, he might take some votes off traditional FN voters as Sarkozy did so successfully in 2007.

        The so-called front republicain might not be as strong as it was in 2002, when Le Pen's presence was seen as an aberration, but I'm certain the PS will still call to vote for Fillon and many will follow. Le Pen's lack of economic policy is still an issue. If it came down to those two, I don't see Le Pen winning it.

        As you say, Macron would win comfortably if he's up against Le Pen,

        But it's still very early days. Fillon is already getting quite a lot of grief, not least because the scandal about his wife contradicts everything he stands for. I'm sure there'll be many more twists and turns before the election. Too soon to call at this early juncture.
        Offline

        17
        ReputationRep:
        Le Pen is mightier than Le Sword!
        Offline

        18
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by Wolfram Alpha)
        Le Pen is mightier than Le Sword!
        Ayyyyyy

        Posted from TSR Mobile
        Offline

        0
        ReputationRep:
        Marine Le Pen is the only French leader who isn't bought by you know who..

        The small minority who own the media, spend masses of money buying politics..

        They count too much on demographic destruction of White people

        But in reality the non-White voters do not like the other parties and candidates either...
        Offline

        16
        ReputationRep:
        (Original post by Bornblue)
        "You seem like you need a safe space..."
        Erm... k.

       
       
       
    • See more of what you like on The Student Room

      You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

    • Poll
      What newspaper do you read/prefer?
      Useful resources
    • See more of what you like on The Student Room

      You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

    • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

      Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

      Quick reply
      Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.