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***** UKIP are expected to WIN the Stoke-Central By-election!! ****** watch

  • View Poll Results: Which party do you think will win?
    Labour
    40.74%
    Liberal Democrats
    2.47%
    UKIP
    37.04%
    Conservatives
    13.58%
    Green/Independent/other
    6.17%

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    In recent months we have seen a number of MP's resign over policy issues such as Brexit with labour, or the Heathrow expansion. Most notably Sarah Olney's stunning victory to beat Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park By-election. Supposedly the Lib Dems made their substantial gain due to issues surrounding Brexit.

    And now I move onto the Stoke by-election being held next month. UKIP came a relatively close second in the 2015 general election, labour are defending a 5,000 majority (See below).

    Stoke is well known for Euro-scepticism - 70% voted to leave, a similar percentage to Richmond Park in terms of remain votes. I think labour are in a very uncomfortable position, if they lose this seat to UKIP this could have implications for the next general election in labour strongholds such as the north east of England.

    This by-election could define the future of Brexit Britain and the likelihood of UKIP in the HOC.

    However, the Conservatives are in unknown territory here - they would undoubtedly win the next election at about 40% support, but will they steal UKIP votes? Is it a three horse race, or just between UKIP and labour?

    As for my position - I live in Scotland so UKIP are non-existent. The Conservatives take up most of the opposition/unionist vote in my area. But I'm definitely going to William Hill to put a few quid on this, because I believe we are in for a tremendous shock!

    Thoughts? Anyone live near the area?

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    UKIP Stoke, Cons Copeland
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    I wouldn't say expected but they have a good chance thanks to the leave vote in the area.

    It's always worth mentioning when ukip get close to getting a seat the local campaigners whip up an anyone but ukip campaign to vote for one of the other party's only like in south Thanet


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    I'd want to see a poll putting them above 30% in the constituency before stating that. The Tories have a latent vote that is not guaranteed for the Kippers.

    Tories have definitely won Copeland though.
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    I hope they do. Labour is insanity incarnate and populated by the worst kind of traitors, they shouldn't be allowed near any sort of position of power.
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    The Conservatives could pull off a surprise win in both. I'm expecting a Con win in Copeland and Labour third in Stoke, although not sure who'll win in Stoke. Labour have selected awful candidates to fight both seats and I suspect Corbyn could face yet another leadership challenge (Clive Lewis anybody?) in the coming months.

    Still, it's all good when you're a Tory
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    I'm glad I don't live here I'd be torn who to vote for.

    If ukip don't win this it would spell the end for them (a good thing) - although it would be nice hearing an anti burqa speech in PMQs

    The labour candidate is anti Corbyn. I was inclined to think that a ukip win here might force Corbyn out but knowing how the momentum types work they'd probably spin it and say that the labour candidates hostility to Corbyn lost him the vote.
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    (Original post by .A_C.)
    In recent months we have seen a number of MP's resign over policy issues such as Brexit with labour, or the Heathrow expansion. Most notably Sarah Olney's stunning victory to beat Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park By-election. Supposedly the Lib Dems made their substantial gain due to issues surrounding Brexit.

    And now I move onto the Stoke by-election being held next month. UKIP came a relatively close second in the 2015 general election, labour are defending a 5,000 majority (See below).

    Stoke is well known for Euro-scepticism - 70% voted to leave, a similar percentage to Richmond Park in terms of remain votes. I think labour are in a very uncomfortable position, if they lose this seat to UKIP this could have implications for the next general election in labour strongholds such as the north east of England.

    This by-election could define the future of Brexit Britain and the likelihood of UKIP in the HOC.

    However, the Conservatives are in unknown territory here - they would undoubtedly win the next election at about 40% support, but will they steal UKIP votes? Is it a three horse race, or just between UKIP and labour?

    As for my position - I live in Scotland so UKIP are non-existent. The Conservatives take up most of the opposition/unionist vote in my area. But I'm definitely going to William Hill to put a few quid on this, because I believe we are in for a tremendous shock!

    Thoughts? Anyone live near the area?

    Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

    Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

    I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

    The results from the 2015 election demonstrate this.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

    Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

    I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

    The results from the 2015 election demonstrate this.
    Their decline...to polling higher than 2015 election results.

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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

    Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

    I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

    The results from the 2015 election demonstrate this.
    I agree, as an ex ukip member it makes more sense to vote conservative to give them a bigger majority and recent electoral success to push through brexit


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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Their decline...to polling higher than 2015 election results.
    UKIP were polling at around 15-20% during and after the election. Post referendum they are now polling at a low 10%, sometimes single digits.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

    Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

    I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

    The results from the 2015 election demonstrate this.
    Results from other by elections/polling/council by elections suggest Labour have a retention rate of 65% from 2015. This is without the dynamics of the EU referendum at play.

    -- Should also be said many that have campaigned in Stoke and Copeland are saying reception on the doorstep is not good for Labour
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    I voted for UKIP in the last election, mainly because of Brexit. Now that we've won the leave vote, I see little reason for voting UKIP again, however, I'd vote for them over Labour any day of the week. They just seem irrelevant now.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

    Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

    I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.
    How is it misleading to speculate that UKIP may well go on to win the by-election? I don't think that is misleading at all, just take a look at Richmond Park how Zac was expected to win but he didn't - same applies here, labour are 'expected' to win based on decades of same old same old but could lose due to UKIP gains. No one has a crystal ball, it's merely an assumption.

    Yes, polls have put UKIP 10pts above their rival labour. However of course polls are not always right....See links below:
    http://www.westmonster.com/shock-pol...e-by-election/
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...al-by-election

    And how is it stupid to base who you vote for with consideration for your stance on the EUref? The lib dems based their victory in the byelection on the referendum - so they must be stupid too then.

    I voted leave so I certainly would not vote labour, lib dems or the SNP.

    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Their decline...to polling higher than 2015 election results.Posted from TSR Mobile
    Exactly. You don't need to be a political analyst to know that based from 2015 (which wasn't a million yrs ago) that UKIP will make a good stance this time round. I see this byelection analogous to Dundee West which was held by labour since 1950, and since they have supposedly let people down and the whole independence support they lost their seat to SNP in 2015 - please see wiki link as I find this quite extraordinary. Maybe the same will happen here? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dundee..._constituency).
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    (Original post by paul514)
    I agree, as an ex ukip member it makes more sense to vote conservative to give them a bigger majority and recent electoral success to push through brexit Posted from TSR Mobile
    It could make more sense - but it would be nice for the people of Stoke to put pressure on the Conservatives and Labour to make a loud statement - we voted to leave, don't dare interfere with democracy. Something that corbyn and his crew don't understand.

    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I'd want to see a poll putting them above 30% in the constituency before stating that. The Tories have a latent vote that is not guaranteed for the Kippers.

    Tories have definitely won Copeland though.
    Hello, please see my links above for polls.
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    (Original post by demaistre)
    I hope they do. Labour is insanity incarnate and populated by the worst kind of traitors, they shouldn't be allowed near any sort of position of power.
    I agree - Labour should be scorched for the next few general elections to ensure that they have absolutely 0% power over the Brexit negotiation process and to ensure that us leaving the EU is fully implemented.

    They are indeed traitors for defying the result. The SNP join them, but of course they are even worse - wanting to be 'independent' from the 6th most powerful country in the world but join the crumbling EU as a backup if anything goes wrong. The lib dems can join this looney crew. The whole lot of them should NEVER be voted in for a very long time.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    UKIP were polling at around 15-20% during and after the election. Post referendum they are now polling at a low 10%, sometimes single digits.
    What are you on? Pre election they were polling at around about the 11% mark, got 13% in the election, and then stayed around there for a bit after. In the months leading up the referendum this increased to high teens and then dropped back to the 11-13% mark. UKIP have ever only averaged high teens for short bursts, for the last 4 years they've otherwise hovered around about the 12-13% mark. UKIP is in the same place they were 20 months ago in terms of the headline polling figures.



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    (Original post by .A_C.)
    How is it misleading to speculate that UKIP may well go on to win the by-election? I don't think that is misleading at all, just take a look at Richmond Park how Zac was expected to win but he didn't - same applies here, labour are 'expected' to win based on decades of same old same old but could lose due to UKIP gains. No one has a crystal ball, it's merely an assumption.

    Yes, polls have put UKIP 10pts above their rival labour. However of course polls are not always right....See links below:
    http://www.westmonster.com/shock-pol...e-by-election/
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...al-by-election

    And how is it stupid to base who you vote for with consideration for your stance on the EUref? The lib dems based their victory in the byelection on the referendum - so they must be stupid too then.

    I voted leave so I certainly would not vote labour, lib dems or the SNP.
    Speculation does not give you an ''expected'' result as your title suggests. If you had provided opinion polls showing a clear and strong UKIP lead then yes, I would say they are expected to win.

    The sample size used in those polls was around 150-200, which is tiny and not very representative.

    A leave vote does not imply a vote for a euroskeptic party. In the general election, around 45% of the vote went to parties with a clear euroskeptic platform and only 22% to a party with a clear intention to leave the EU. In the referendum 70% of people voted leave. Unless you want to make the case that some 25-48% of voters changed their minds inbetween the two votes, then clearly a significant percentage of those leave votes came from Labour voters. Hence it is possible for Stoke to continue being a Labour seat despite a leave voting electorate.




    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    What are you on? Pre election they were polling at around about the 11% mark, got 13% in the election, and then stayed around there for a bit after. In the months leading up the referendum this increased to high teens and then dropped back to the 11-13% mark. UKIP have ever only averaged high teens for short bursts, for the last 4 years they've otherwise hovered around about the 12-13% mark. UKIP is in the same place they were 20 months ago in terms of the headline polling figures.



    Using that data, if you look at the four months prior to the election you'll see UKIP poll an average of 14%, hitting 17's and even some 18's. If the take the last four months of data from today, they poll at an average of 12%. You can try this yourself, just copy/paste the information into excel.

    Even from the graphs you can see this - before the election they were comfortably between 12.5% and 15% whereas after, and now, they've been edging 10%.

    In the run up to the referendum they did grow in popularity but I think we could both agree that this was because of the referendum. They fell back quickly after.
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    (Original post by .A_C.)
    It could make more sense - but it would be nice for the people of Stoke to put pressure on the Conservatives and Labour to make a loud statement - we voted to leave, don't dare interfere with democracy. Something that corbyn and his crew don't understand.



    Hello, please see my links above for polls.
    Well I'd rather stick a rusty nail in my japs eyes than vote labour.

    That said the conservatives are going for what's known as a hard brexit and that is what the vast majority of leavers want. They don't need to have pressure put on them, they need more backing


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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Speculation does not give you an ''expected'' result as your title suggests. If you had provided opinion polls showing a clear and strong UKIP lead then yes, I would say they are expected to win.

    The sample size used in those polls was around 150-200, which is tiny and not very representative.

    A leave vote does not imply a vote for a euroskeptic party. In the general election, around 45% of the vote went to parties with a clear euroskeptic platform and only 22% to a party with a clear intention to leave the EU. In the referendum 70% of people voted leave. Unless you want to make the case that some 25-48% of voters changed their minds inbetween the two votes, then clearly a significant percentage of those leave votes came from Labour voters. Hence it is possible for Stoke to continue being a Labour seat despite a leave voting electorate.






    Using that data, if you look at the four months prior to the election you'll see UKIP poll an average of 14%, hitting 17's and even some 18's. If the take the last four months of data from today, they poll at an average of 12%. You can try this yourself, just copy/paste the information into excel.

    Even from the graphs you can see this - before the election they were comfortably between 12.5% and 15% whereas after, and now, they've been edging 10%.

    In the run up to the referendum they did grow in popularity but I think we could both agree that this was because of the referendum. They fell back quickly after.
    And while there were polls before the electiojn in the high teens there were also some in single figures, the polling AVERAGE was in the final two months trending down from 14% to 13%, meanwhile in the last two months they have trended up from 11% to...wait for it...13%. The polls in the final week before the election for UKIP were stable, with most polls giving them 11%, whereas the polling since the new year have: 1x 6%, 2x 12%, 3x 13% 3x 14%
 
 
 
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