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***** UKIP are expected to WIN the Stoke-Central By-election!! ****** Watch

  • View Poll Results: Which party do you think will win?
    Labour
    40.74%
    Liberal Democrats
    2.47%
    UKIP
    37.04%
    Conservatives
    13.58%
    Green/Independent/other
    6.17%

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    And while there were polls before the electiojn in the high teens there were also some in single figures, the polling AVERAGE was in the final two months trending down from 14% to 13%, meanwhile in the last two months they have trended up from 11% to...wait for it...13%. The polls in the final week before the election for UKIP were stable, with most polls giving them 11%, whereas the polling since the new year have: 1x 6%, 2x 12%, 3x 13% 3x 14%
    If you take the last two months of polling, UKIP are at an average of 12%. If you take the two months before the last election, UKIP were averaging around 13%, or 14% if rounded.

    I'm unsure how you got to 13%, but either way they're not that far off from what they were like at the general election but they're certainly not doing better. Look at it over longer periods of time and they're definitely not.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    If you take the last two months of polling, UKIP are at an average of 12%. If you take the two months before the last election, UKIP were averaging around 13%, or 14% if rounded.

    I'm unsure how you got to 13%, but either way they're not that far off from what they were like at the general election but they're certainly not doing better. Look at it over longer periods of time and they're definitely not.
    I get 13% by, here's the shocker, looking at the graph and the data which pits their polling average at 13% and trending upwards, is it really so difficult to do that?

    And unless looking at a long enough term for the analysis to be irrelevant you cannot day they are not doing better (although it may have stalled now): before the election they were solidly on a downward trend, they are currently on an upward trend. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most people would say the same average with an upward trend is better than with a downward trend.

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    I think UKIP have a great chance if they can increase the turnout on the 2015 general election and that will be a good thing if only to help stop any backsliding on Brexit.
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    I voted for the Monster Raving Loony Party. Although that title to be given to the current Labour Party quite frankly.

    https://www.loonyparty.com/3613/5803...ll-save-stoke/

    Spoiler:
    Show

    The Incredible Flying Brick is standing in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.
    When elected he pledges to:
    • Abolish Gravity with immediate effect.
    • Make fishing a spectator sport by introducing piranha to the Trent.
    • Develop Stoke-on-Trent Civic Centre into an intergalactic space port.
    • Ensure that all European trains will be fuelled by Gravy.


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    I love the way that the poll closes months after the by-election has actually happened. Predicting the past is so much easier than predicting the future..

    But if anyone wants to bet on UKIP winning this one, I'll take their money.
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    (Original post by paul514)
    a hard brexit and that is what the vast majority of leavers want.
    If this were even remotely correct, why did the Leave campaigns talk so much about having a Norway-style relationship with the EU?
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    Don't know if I'm getting old but the Monster Raving Loony party is really starting to bug me. It's not even funny and the only thing most if the candidates belong on is a certain register.






    That said I love this guy: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lrDDkKPUFa4
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    (Original post by unprinted)
    If this were even remotely correct, why did the Leave campaigns talk so much about having a Norway-style relationship with the EU?
    They didn't


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    (Original post by paul514)
    They didn't


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    They actually did a great deal during the early stages up until the last month or so


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY* a few of these are taken out of context but the point remains the same.

    I agree that the vote to leave the EU was a vote to leave the single market BTW- but it was only I think a month if that before it became the generally accepted Leave position.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    They actually did a great deal during the early stages up until the last month or so


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY* a few of these are taken out of context but the point remains the same.

    I agree that the vote to leave the EU was a vote to leave the single market BTW- but it was only I think a month if that before it became the generally accepted Leave position.
    I haven't watched the video but it was mostly dan Hannan on places like the daily politics that was saying stuff like that.

    It was used as a campaign tool to say look there are many models but it wasn't the endorsed position of the leave campaign.

    That was the take back control line of boarders, money, sovereignty and laws line.


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    This isn't even because UKIP is good, it's because labour is awful. People still angry at Lib dems, will never vote conservatives and see labour as a mess while UKIP listens and plays on their feelings, easy to see them gaining momentum into the 2020 election especially in the north.
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    Cameron's huge mistake was in having a 'Remain / Leave' binary referendum, rather than offering a couple of hundred thousand quid to anyone who could campaign for a specific leave option and having multiple choices: Remain or Leave+stay in single market or Leave+join EFTA or Leave+do whatever the US president wants etc.

    Then we'd know if there was majority support for leaving the single market - the creation of which was best thing Thatcher ever did.

    Until then, you're assuming that everyone who voted Leave wants the hard 'Brexit means Trump'.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I get 13% by, here's the shocker, looking at the graph and the data which pits their polling average at 13% and trending upwards, is it really so difficult to do that?

    And unless looking at a long enough term for the analysis to be irrelevant you cannot day they are not doing better (although it may have stalled now): before the election they were solidly on a downward trend, they are currently on an upward trend. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most people would say the same average with an upward trend is better than with a downward trend.
    Is it difficult to do that? Apparently, since I cannot replicate the numbers you are getting. I've taken the data itself and done the actual calculations. I've not just used the graph. You could show me the data you've used and your calculation and I can compare it to what I've done if you'd like.

    And as far as I'm interested in this thread, all that really matters is there general popularity now compared to their general popularity at the last election. As already explained/demonstrated, they are at least not more popular now than they were before.
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    I would vote UKIP as they have the best chance to beat the Labour Party.
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    I think there is a possibility they will win, as the Tory vote may tactically go their way to embarrass Labour.
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    Paul Nuttall has not been entire truthful on his nomination form by claiming to live at an address in Stoke despite admitting having never even been to the house in question. Sounds like he make a fantastic MP.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-having-lived/
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    (Original post by Quantex)
    Paul Nuttall has not been entire truthful on his nomination form by claiming to live at an address in Stoke despite admitting having never even been to the house in question. Sounds like he make a fantastic MP.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-having-lived/

    HA! The press will do anything to generate a flurry of negativity casting a big black cloud over UKIP. They tried it in the Eu referendum (and of course with Trump!) but it didn't work.

    And for this by-election, I think it's desperation to find absolutely anything that will put a chink in the armour of the ever gaining momentum of a formidable UKIP, which looks set to make a few gains in the near future.

    You, labour and others are worried that Paul will win.

    Also, I think many people will trust Paul over Labour's dysfunctional party who are trying to please leavers by pretending to want to invoke Article 50. Frankly, I don't think they will win. Paul supposedly pretending to live in Stoke is not as big of a problem to the people of Stoke than labour being a Europhilic party lost in the array of division representing the leave area in the city.

    It's anyone's game to win of course, but my money is on UKIP.
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    Are the Lib Dems going to pull out in the spirit of the progressive coalition?

    Thought not.
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    (Original post by zayn008)
    This isn't even because UKIP is good, it's because labour is awful. People still angry at Lib dems, will never vote conservatives and see labour as a mess while UKIP listens and plays on their feelings, easy to see them gaining momentum into the 2020 election especially in the north.
    Every single pundit keeps saying this yet it has never happened.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Every single pundit keeps saying this yet it has never happened.
    3 million votes in 2015 was quite an accomplishment, now with a strategy they can target constituencies and gain seats. It's been happening and at this rate it will happen
 
 
 
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