Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free

***** UKIP are expected to WIN the Stoke-Central By-election!! ****** Watch

  • View Poll Results: Which party do you think will win?
    Labour
    40.74%
    Liberal Democrats
    2.47%
    UKIP
    37.04%
    Conservatives
    13.58%
    Green/Independent/other
    6.17%

    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by the bear)
    tbh there is not much point to ukip now. it is like the suffragette parties after women were given the vote.
    Hmm

    I do and don't agree.

    It was always about what you did with the movement.

    There was too much infighting, changing leader and a lack of getting the working class message across for them to become a power after the referendum.

    It's probably too late for them to do that now as well


    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by paul514)
    Hmm

    I do and don't agree.

    It was always about what you did with the movement.

    There was too much infighting, changing leader and a lack of getting the working class message across for them to become a power after the referendum.

    It's probably too late for them to do that now as well


    Posted from TSR Mobile
    All this stuff about the working class message - that might be what some kippers tell themselves, but please be assured, it was never, not even for one single second, the goal of Farage or the financial interests who backed him, or the oligarchical media corporate interests (most notably Murdoch) who made Brexit a reality. They don't give a **stuff** about real working class interests. Their interests are:

    - further drops in corporate taxes and taxes for the very rich
    - additional deregulation of the labour market by removing worker protections - this will remain their goal
    - authoritarian control within the UK over dissent as they obtain their corporate goals - already being activated by Theresa

    In short, they are after a particular form of Chinese-style authoritarian capitalism that is at least moderately resisted in the EU, hence the burning desire to leave.

    The working class people recruited into UKIP have simply been fooled into acting against their basic class interests, in much the same way that newspapers like the Sun and the Mail have always co-opted them to support Tory campaigns.

    Trust me when I say that in post-Brexit Britain, genuine worker interests (things like strong sustainable public services, good worker protections, increasing worker pay) will be at the very bottom of government priorities. UKIP would in no way change that if they were in office, indeed, they are a branch of the Tory Right descended from the Monday Club.
    Offline

    13
    ReputationRep:
    Ha ha A guardian Columnist nails it:

    Corbyn says that the people are fed up of an out of touch political establishment. That must be why they voted in the party of the government
    • Offline

      18
      (Original post by .A_C.)
      Turnout was low.
      That's generally been good for UKIP's prospects in the past. If anything, that explains why they were closer to winning than last time.

      (Original post by .A_C.)
      I wonder if they can even hold onto Clacton next time round? We will just end up seeing a huge tory dominance tbh...
      Probably not. The day after the last GE whilst everyone was busy crying about FPTP and how it had screwed the 'kippers over, the fact that Douglas Carswell's by-election majority had been reduced by almost three-quarters slipped through the coverage almost unnoticed. Low turnouts are a boon for parties like UKIP, so it's hardly an excuse they can use to justify bad performance.
      Offline

      3
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by .A_C.)
      Unfortunately, damaging comments and the weather didn't get the 'kippers to come out in force. Turnout was low. The gap closed between UKIP and LAB much more tightly than last time round tho.

      I still think the message that UKIP portray resonates across the UK. They are too good at being 2nd and perhaps don't seem too big of a threat to LAB after all... But UKIP still made their fingertips water - which is what we need.
      Labour is technically two different parties. The middle class types who read the guardian and celebrate multiculturalism. The university town seats and those in inner city london.

      The second half being the working class and left behind seats as a result of deindustrailisation. The two seats fought yesterday definitely fall into the latter.
      • Thread Starter
      Offline

      12
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Davij038)
      Pretty happy with the result- very damaging for Labour and the kippers with good performances for the Tories and Libs.

      Maybe ukip can start shutting up about being the voice of the people and Corbyn will have to start taking responsibility sooner or later instead of blaming the establishment
      Are you happy that LAB actually managed to hold one of their seats, or the fact that CON are gaining?

      Or that UKIP are less likely to win a seat in the future?

      At this current moment in time I don't really support a political party, but I would most likely vote CON in future elections as opposition to SNP (since LAB supposedly aren't 'the thing' in Scot anymore). I wonder if LAB will even get 1 seat in Scotland next time round? I think CON will make a few gains in Scotland - taking the whole of the scottish borders belt, aberdeenshire and maybe a few other potential places like ayr or Edinburgh central (based on 2016 results).

      ^ But of course boundary changes apply to next GE, so things could be different... Especially for stoke central which will not exist in 2020 under the proposed changes.

      I have voted UKIP once in the Scottish elections last year tho in the hope of electing David Coburn, but it was a wasted vote - Should have been double CON tbh...
      • Thread Starter
      Offline

      12
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Polka_Specs)
      Labour is technically two different parties. The middle class types who read the guardian and celebrate multiculturalism. The university town seats and those in inner city london.

      The second half being the working class and left behind seats as a result of deindustrailisation. The two seats fought yesterday definitely fall into the latter.
      That is quite an interesting (but very accurate) description of the LAB party. Places like London with well established multi-culture usually always vote LAB, along with midlands, wales, the NE England and formally Scotland.

      I personally don't vote labour because I live in quite a remote area near both Aberdeen and Dundee which is both very SNP, but the CON aren't a million miles away of being a threat. LAB always come 3rd in my area - they don't do well in the outer-suburbs usually.

      And plus I don't particularly like some of their polices, and their leader.....
      Offline

      11
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
      All this stuff about the working class message - that might be what some kippers tell themselves, but please be assured, it was never, not even for one single second, the goal of Farage .
      Farage used whatever support he could get, working class, middle class, upper class, to achieve his political goal, Brexit.

      As it happened, a lot of working class people supported it.

      You give the impression, above, that you are something of an expert on the subject of the poor and oppressed classes. Tell me, as a Prep School, Oxford University girl, what exactly do YOU know about the working class?

      Have you ever met one who wasn't your scout at Oriel?
      • Community Assistant
      Offline

      21
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Hydeman)
      That's generally been good for UKIP's prospects in the past. If anything, that explains why they were closer to winning than last time.

      Probably not. The day after the last GE whilst everyone was busy crying about FPTP and how it had screwed the 'kippers over, the fact that Douglas Carswell's by-election majority had been reduced by almost three-quarters slipped through the coverage almost unnoticed. Low turnouts are a boon for parties like UKIP, so it's hardly an excuse they can use to justify bad performance.
      Low turnout typically aids the incumbent and high turnout the challenger since the incumbent voters are usually stronger locally (this is why the 50% turnout in Copeland told me that Copeland had gone). Low turnout in Ukip targets probably aids them because they have less resources than the others and because a low turnout in a Labour held seat almost inherently means a weak Tory performance.

      In the case of Stoke the low to medium turnout probably helped them a little but a high turnout would have probably suggested that the closest challenger with resources (Tories) had done well.
      Offline

      13
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by .A_C.)
      Are you happy that LAB actually managed to hold one of their seats, or the fact that CON are gaining?

      Or that UKIP are less likely to win a seat in the future?
      The last two. I'm glad that the retarded identity politics of the right and the even more retarded identity politics of the left are being rejected. I'd have been happier if the Tories had taken both seats but we can't have everything...


      At this current moment in time I don't really support a political party, but I would most likely vote CON in future elections as opposition to SNP (since LAB supposedly aren't 'the thing' in Scot anymore). I wonder if LAB will even get 1 seat in Scotland next time round? I think CON will make a few gains in Scotland - taking the whole of the scottish borders belt, aberdeenshire and maybe a few other potential places like ayr or Edinburgh central (based on 2016 results).

      ^ But of course boundary changes apply to next GE, so things could be different... Especially for stoke central which will not exist in 2020 under the proposed changes.

      I have voted UKIP once in the Scottish elections last year tho in the hope of electing David Coburn, but it was a wasted vote - Should have been double CON tbh...
      I think Lab are doomed in Scotland. The lib Dems and Tories might be more fortuitous but I think the snp are going to be the majority for a while. Regrettably.
      Offline

      3
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by .A_C.)
      That is quite an interesting (but very accurate) description of the LAB party. Places like London with well established multi-culture usually always vote LAB, along with midlands, wales, the NE England and formally Scotland.

      I personally don't vote labour because I live in quite a remote area near both Aberdeen and Dundee which is both very SNP, but the CON aren't a million miles away of being a threat. LAB always come 3rd in my area - they don't do well in the outer-suburbs usually.

      And plus I don't particularly like some of their polices, and their leader.....
      Outer London is mostly blue, as they are more inclined to own their own properties however with people being forced to rent further and further out and then commute in assuming they vote they could turn red possibly.

      However my seat has been occupied by the now shadow chancellor. Whilst there has been a lot of secondary sector activity, the plot thickens as more people move into the area as a result of the forthcoming Crossrail.
      Offline

      19
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by .A_C.)
      It's a real shame with UKIP tho. It seems the EU ref doesn't have as big of an impact like the Scottish one up here.
      Well, if anything the Scottish referendum showed that the losers can be the big electoral winners if there is a shift in attitudes. They feel mightily pissed off and are prepared to cast aside other beliefs and vote for whoever represents the single issue they care about.

      There's been some of that, with the increase in the Lib Dem vote in a few areas - but yes, it's nowhere near as substantial.
      Offline

      3
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by L i b)
      Well, if anything the Scottish referendum showed that the losers can be the big electoral winners if there is a shift in attitudes. They feel mightily pissed off and are prepared to cast aside other beliefs and vote for whoever represents the single issue they care about.

      There's been some of that, with the increase in the Lib Dem vote in a few areas - but yes, it's nowhere near as substantial.
      I can't believe that Scotland of all places, now looks quite progressive and sensible. For as long as you ignore the previous 30yrs of history.
      Offline

      19
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Polka_Specs)
      I can't believe that Scotland of all places, now looks quite progressive and sensible. For as long as you ignore the previous 30yrs of history.
      I'm not sure where you're getting the idea having a nationalist government seems sensible and progressive from. It's thoroughly unpleasant and ends up with every legitimate argument against the government of the day descending into you're-insulting-Scotland style accusations.
      Offline

      18
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by L i b)
      Well, if anything the Scottish referendum showed that the losers can be the big electoral winners if there is a shift in attitudes. They feel mightily pissed off and are prepared to cast aside other beliefs and vote for whoever represents the single issue they care about.

      There's been some of that, with the increase in the Lib Dem vote in a few areas - but yes, it's nowhere near as substantial.
      That happened in Scotland because the SNP were the only serious pro-independence party in town and the unionist vote was split 3 ways. If the vote switches in Copeland are anything to go by, the Tories will mop up most of the UKIP vote while Labour and the Lib Dems squabble over the 'Remain' vote.
      Offline

      18
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by astutehirstute)
      Farage used whatever support he could get, working class, middle class, upper class, to achieve his political goal, Brexit.

      As it happened, a lot of working class people supported it.

      You give the impression, above, that you are something of an expert on the subject of the poor and oppressed classes. Tell me, as a Prep School, Oxford University girl, what exactly do YOU know about the working class?

      Have you ever met one who wasn't your scout at Oriel?
      And it is that group which will be shafted the most as a result.
      Offline

      11
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Midlander)
      And it is that group which will be shafted the most as a result.
      So the Remainers say. Like they said the economy would collapse. :rolleyes:

      Unlike you I can't see into the future myself, (where do you get the crystal ball?) and will wait and see.
      Offline

      20
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by astutehirstute)
      So the Remainers say. Like they said the economy would collapse. :rolleyes:

      Unlike you I can't see into the future myself, (where do you get the crystal ball?) and will wait and see.
      We still haven't left yet. Wait until we do. You can ignore the evidence if you like, but it's mounting - big employers planning to leave, the City going to substantially contract, government and independent economists are predicting plunging tax revenues after Brexit, leading to a further downward spiral of austerity and reduced demand.

      The people who are going to suffer most are the poorer voters in the North and Midlands who pushed Brexit across the winning line.
      • Political Ambassador
      Offline

      17
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
      We still haven't left yet. Wait until we do. You can ignore the evidence if you like, but it's mounting - big employers planning to leave, the City going to substantially contract, government and independent economists are predicting plunging tax revenues after Brexit, leading to a further downward spiral of austerity and reduced demand.

      The people who are going to suffer most are the poorer voters in the North and Midlands who pushed Brexit across the winning line.
      Our economy is currently being propped up through retail spending, fuelled by debt. That's already showing signs of tapering off. Our economy is not looking good. I think we're very right to be concerned over economic direction.

      Posted from TSR Mobile
      • Community Assistant
      Offline

      21
      ReputationRep:
      (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
      We still haven't left yet. Wait until we do. You can ignore the evidence if you like, but it's mounting - big employers planning to leave, the City going to substantially contract, government and independent economists are predicting plunging tax revenues after Brexit, leading to a further downward spiral of austerity and reduced demand.

      The people who are going to suffer most are the poorer voters in the North and Midlands who pushed Brexit across the winning line.
      Big employers are not planning to leave. Two banks are moving a small proportion of their workforce to Paris (about 2000 jobs) while Amazon and Apple are collectively creating 8000. UK hiring intentions are still positive overall. Tax revenues were already predicted to fall and the economy slow, so far the only negative effects are a weaker pound driving moderate inflation and business investment being deferred. There is no guarantee these factors will persist into the 2020's.

      I accept that come the day in 2019 you could turn out to be right (though i think the negotiation period is more damaging than actually leaving personally) but right now, you doom mongers are on the back foot.
     
     
     
    Reply
    Submit reply
    TSR Support Team

    We have a brilliant team of more than 60 Support Team members looking after discussions on The Student Room, helping to make it a fun, safe and useful place to hang out.

    Updated: February 28, 2017
  1. See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  2. Poll
    Did TEF Bronze Award affect your UCAS choices?
    Useful resources

    Groups associated with this forum:

    View associated groups
  3. See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  4. The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Quick reply
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.