What has the UK got to bargain with

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richard10012
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With the EU? What are the chances we will get a good deal? Do the EU need the UK?
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L i b
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Britain is one of the world's major economies and London is a major financial centre. Ultimately it's not in anyone's interest to take steps that will damage trade any more than it has to be. Free trade is not something given, but something that is mutually beneficial.
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Pulse.
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Intelligence, defence and military resources is a major one.

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EternalLight
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(Original post by L i b)
Britain is one of the world's major economies and London is a major financial centre. Ultimately it's not in anyone's interest to take steps that will damage trade any more than it has to be. Free trade is not something given, but something that is mutually beneficial.
Not much, we are not in the driving seat in this negotiation and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. We are at the complete mercy of the EU and it's going to be their deal or no deal. We import 70% more from the EU then we export and the majority of EU countries are in NATO which is backed by the U.S so either way, Europe is still protected.

As for the deal itself being "good", in my opinion it won't be "good" but will either be mediocre of bad. The EU want to make an example of us and demonstrate to other EU members what will happen if they decide to leave. It's not really black mail but it's letting them know if they want to leave they can, but they're going to get a crap deal and pay billions in fees.
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Pulse.
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(Original post by AishaGirl)
Not much, we are not in the driving seat in this negotiation and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. We are at the complete mercy of the EU and it's going to be their deal or no deal. We import 70% more from the EU then we export and the majority of EU countries are in NATO which is backed by the U.S so either way, Europe is still protected.

As for the deal itself being "good", in my opinion it won't be "good" but will either be mediocre of bad. The EU want to make an example of us and demonstrate to other EU members what will happen if they decide to leave. It's not really black mail but it's letting them know if they want to leave they can, but they're going to get a crap deal and pay billions in fees.
Not entirely true and at this point speaking with certainty isn't really the right way to go.

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999tigger
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(Original post by Pulse.)
Intelligence, defence and military resources is a major one.

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Dont think so. They arent worth £.

We will carry on Euro arrest warrant and share intelligence anyway,
Defence and military resources they get via NATO.
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Pulse.
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(Original post by 999tigger)
Dont think so. They arent worth £.

We will carry on Euro arrest warrant and share intelligence anyway,
Defence and military resources they get via NATO.
This is true, much will continue including Europol and CSDP involvement. The EU has however been trying to project itself independently of NATO.

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mojojojo101
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(Original post by 999tigger)
Dont think so. They arent worth £.

We will carry on Euro arrest warrant and share intelligence anyway,
Defence and military resources they get via NATO.
As far as the European Arrest Warrant goes, didn't the conservatives have a massive bust up about it 2-3 years ago as euro-skeptic backbenchers wanted a vote to abolish it which was blocked by Cameron/May. Might not be as safe as it probably should be...
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Tempest II
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(Original post by AishaGirl)
Not much, we are not in the driving seat in this negotiation and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. We are at the complete mercy of the EU and it's going to be their deal or no deal. We import 70% more from the EU then we export and the majority of EU countries are in NATO which is backed by the U.S so either way, Europe is still protected.
Judging by some of President Trump's comments on NATO & that he doesn't like the situation at the moment where nations like Germany don't spend the 2% of GDP on defence, as required by the alliance, it might be a tad optimistic to assume that the US would automatically assist the EU.
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EternalLight
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(Original post by Tempest II)
Judging by some of President Trump's comments on NATO & that he doesn't like the situation at the moment where nations like Germany don't spend the 2% of GDP on defence, as required by the alliance, it might be a tad optimistic to assume that the US would automatically assist the EU.
True but I think those EU countries will start pulling their weight now. Trump has already categorically stated that the U.S supports NATO. I agree these countries need to pay their share.
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Tempest II
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(Original post by AishaGirl)
True but I think those EU countries will start pulling their weight now. Trump has already categorically stated that the U.S supports NATO. I agree these countries need to pay their share.
Which he did only after criticism from within the Republican Party & advice from those around him; I'd be concerned that POTUS night not be fully supportive of NATO during some kind of crisis in the Baltic States due to his relationship with Putin.

I doubt many EU nations will quite frankly, military budgets are always easy targets to be cut & other areas tend to be priortised, especially during run ups to elections when politicians are either trying to cut taxes or increase spending on health, education or other areas.
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EternalLight
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(Original post by Tempest II)
Which he did only after criticism from within the Republican Party & advice from those around him; I'd be concerned that POTUS night not be fully supportive of NATO during some kind of crisis in the Baltic States due to his relationship with Putin.

I doubt many EU nations will quite frankly, military budgets are always easy targets to be cut & other areas tend to be priortised, especially during run ups to elections when politicians are either trying to cut taxes or increase spending on health, education or other areas.
Hmm maybe you're right. If Russia really encroach on a NATO members territory will the U.S really consider going to war with Russia over somewhere like Latvia for example? Probably not.
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balanced
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Equal first/ 2nd most powerful nation in the world (Soft power, which is the real measure when discussing negotiation). One of the world's largest markets- more importantly, one of the EU's largest market. As a result, EU governments must get a trade deal with us - it is more in their interest than ours, especially given that they have little chance of initiating a trade deal with another non-EU country.
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999tigger
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(Original post by Pulse.)
This is true, much will continue including Europol and CSDP involvement. The EU has however been trying to project itself independently of NATO.

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So what? How does that relate to UK bargaining? the UK will not give any of its forces over to the EU. Even less reason once we are no longer a member. There may be some co operation agreement but dfence will pretty much rest with Nato. its not a bargaining chip.
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niteninja1
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(Original post by richard10012)
With the EU? What are the chances we will get a good deal? Do the EU need the UK?
The EU needs GB more than GB needs the EU
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L i b
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(Original post by AishaGirl)
Not much, we are not in the driving seat in this negotiation and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. We are at the complete mercy of the EU and it's going to be their deal or no deal.
We're a significant economy and to suggest that the EU would not want to trade with the UK on tariff-free terms - having done so for the past 40 years - is pretty peculiar. While the EU as a bloc is bigger, trade with the UK certainly does create jobs, economic growth and supports lots of other things like research and innovation.

I'm sure both parties will have some bottom line. That is in the nature of negotiations and of course either party can ultimately pull out if the negotiations do not go well. But I still cannot see any reason why that would be a remotely rational response.

We import 70% more from the EU then we export and the majority of EU countries are in NATO which is backed by the U.S so either way, Europe is still protected.
I'd think the EU exporting more to the UK than vice-versa would demonstrate if anything that they have a greater economic reliance on trade with the UK...

As for NATO, I'm not really sure the significance to our trading arrangements. No-one is suggesting that the free trade agreement we propose with the EU will be a mutual defence agreement.

The EU want to make an example of us and demonstrate to other EU members what will happen if they decide to leave. It's not really black mail but it's letting them know if they want to leave they can, but they're going to get a crap deal and pay billions in fees.
If the EU wants to harm its own economies to make that political point, I suppose they can. I cannot understand putting a philosophical attachment to centralised control and inflexibility ahead of the economic interests of the people of Europe. Maybe the European Commissioners, in their infinite wisdom, do want that.

In which case, I'd probably start to question my Remain vote last year. I suspect many across Europe would also take a fairly dim view of being held hostage when several member-states genuinely do want greater flexibility and subsidiarity within the EU. Still, if that happens, it happens - both economies will be damaged and Europe as a whole will be the worse for it. I still do not think it's anywhere near the most likely outcome.
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ckfeister
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(Original post by AishaGirl)
Not much, we are not in the driving seat in this negotiation and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. We are at the complete mercy of the EU and it's going to be their deal or no deal. We import 70% more from the EU then we export and the majority of EU countries are in NATO which is backed by the U.S so either way, Europe is still protected.

As for the deal itself being "good", in my opinion it won't be "good" but will either be mediocre of bad. The EU want to make an example of us and demonstrate to other EU members what will happen if they decide to leave. It's not really black mail but it's letting them know if they want to leave they can, but they're going to get a crap deal and pay billions in fees.
Lets put it this way, western world is in terminal decline, they wouldn't want more things going to Asia as sudden, we are the second biggest funder of EU, superior in defence, list could go on.
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Maker
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Several big companies like Toyota have said they want tariff free access to the EU or they are off. The EU can put tariffs on UK exports and a lot of firms that were set up in the UK because they can freely export to the rest of the EU will disappear to Europe. The EU knows this and Britain knows this.
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paul514
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The negotiations are easy except for two points. How much is the divorce bill and will you insist on freedom of movement of people.

Literally everything else we all agree on


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