Theresa May’s answer on free school meals shows how irrelevant Labour are

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Carlylean
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...levant-labour/
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username2911200
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Although I am a subscriber to The Telegraph and can therefore read the article past the first few paragraphs, I'm sure the vast majority of users on here are not, so they cannot read much of it...
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TrapsterJ
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I think Labour is just clutching at strings right now. Just let them divide into two parties and job done.


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Grespino
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can't read all of it
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mojojojo101
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(Original post by TrapsterJ)
I think Labour is just clutching at strings right now. Just let them divide into two parties and job done.


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Not going to happen.

If Labour splits and the Tories don't they know they will not be able to win a general election (same applies the other way as well)

Politicians love one thing more than anything else, power. Even the sliver they have now in this dodgy and innapropriate alliance is preferable than sticking to your 'ideals' and losing grip of that power.
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Rakas21
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I wonder if we will see a poll with a 20% Tory lead.
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username1799249
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I wonder if we will see a poll with a 20% Tory lead.
Good question. My feeling is they may well do well on seats if the current situation continues, but voters will either split their vote to more insignificant parties like the Lib Dems or Greens who won't get enough to win a seat, or just not turn up. The Tories do ok in power, but they are never loved.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Good question. My feeling is they may well do well on seats if the current situation continues, but voters will either split their vote to more insignificant parties like the Lib Dems or Greens who won't get enough to win a seat, or just not turn up. The Tories do ok in power, but they are never loved.
From 79-92 the Tory vote dropped all of 2% and from 51-59 it actually increased by 1.4%. That is a far better record post war than any set of Labour governments bar Attlee.

Although i think that the three big periods of Tory government (the two above plus this one) are definitely more polarizing for the electorate i think it's wrong to claim that they are any less loved than other governments and i certainly think that there is a larger section of the electorate who want Tory governance than are generally prepared to admit it due to the social stigma of being a selfish, heartless :dolphin::dolphin::dolphin::dolphin::dolphin::dolphin::dolphin: who might actually value fiscal discipline (as the saying goes.. all those people who told you don't know in 2015.. they were bluer than your mothers knickers).

If you look under the swirl of the current polls then what we are actually seeing is that the Tories are primarily gaining votes from Labour and the Kippers but the Kipper losses are somewhat offset by Labour losing votes to them as well as the Lib Dems (though the type of seats where the Kippers are in second mean that they have no chance).

As we saw in the last election although the Kippers did okay nationally their vote in the marginals melted away in the last 6 months as i suspect it does most elections (replace Kippers with Liberals for past elections) and i don't think this election will be any different meaning that in most seats where Labour are not 10% ahead and voted Leave, Labour MP's are probably like lambs for the slaughter at the moment. Indeed, although governments typically do worse in by-elections it's worth saying that the Copeland result is consistent with a 19% national lead.

*For the record i should probably say that i don't think anybody expected the electoral response afterward that we have seen. I myself was expecting something like 29-39 as the Lab-Con vote share come 2020 however i don't currently see much reason for the Tory lead to weaken given that the economy is holding up, far, far better than i expected (i voted Leave pricing in a shallow recession as per the treasuries worst case scenario, not near standard growth).
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username1799249
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(Original post by Rakas21)
From 79-92 the Tory vote dropped all of 2% and from 51-59 it actually increased by 1.4%. That is a far better record post war than any set of Labour governments bar Attlee.
Are you sure? I have the 1997 popular vote down as 43.2% to Labour and 30.7% to the Tories with a swing of 10.2% from Tory to Labour.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Are you sure? I have the 1997 popular vote down as 43.2% to Labour and 30.7% to the Tories with a swing of 10.2% from Tory to Labour.
Hence why i did not include elections that changes hands. My point is that there will come a time when the vote will collapse and they'll be kicked out but its usually pretty quick (as per 64 and 97) as opposed to a slow bleed of hatred and growing resentment.
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