United Ireland with Stormont parliament(and/or other compromises)

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SaucissonSecCy
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#1
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We are in the midst of sweeping changes. What was thought impossible for a while may now be likely.

If Scotland leaves the union it's hard to see what the unionists have any more.

In addition, many NI citizens are valuing a more general European identity.

I can really see it happening now, and several compromises have been suggested, such as commonwealth membership(I don't buy this because the people of the republic do not want queenie as head of state)

How about a united Ireland with the parliament moved to the magnificent Stormont?

Also, a bridge could be invested in from an independent Scotland to NI.

Exciting times.
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username1308602
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(Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
We are in the midst of sweeping changes. What was thought impossible for a while may now be likely.

If Scotland leaves the union it's hard to see what the unionists have any more.

In addition, many NI citizens are valuing a more general European identity.

I can really see it happening now, and several compromises have been suggested, such as commonwealth membership(I don't buy this because the people of the republic do not want queenie as head of state)

How about a united Ireland with the parliament moved to the magnificent Stormont?

Also, a bridge could be invested in from an independent Scotland to NI.

Exciting times.
Many in Northern Ireland have indicated that they would like to be a part of the European Union. But what gives you the impression that enough people want this to go so far as to vote to leave the United Kingdom and join the Republic of Ireland? Unionist parties won significantly more of the popular vote in the assembly elections in March. Most people in Northern Ireland identify as British. Although Sinn Fein were only just behind the DUP in terms of the popular vote, they'd need a great deal more support in the North before a border poll was even considered. Also worth mentioning that many in the Republic have no interest in a United Ireland. In the South, Sinn Fein are largely a party that receives the protest vote.

I have no doubt that a United Ireland will come about in the future but I just can't see it. The older generations in the North identify more British than Irish. It is the more Republican sentiment amongst younger generations that could bring about a United Ireland but I don't see this happening in the very near future.
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username2110825
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You'd be surprised how many Irish (myself included) don't honestly have uniting Ireland on the agenda. The Taoiseach sure as hell doesn't, not with Sinn Fein still out of power.

Scotland will eventually leave, I have no doubt of that.
Wales is, unfortunately, tethered to England near indefinitely. Wood doesn't have the charisma or, frankly, ferocity Nicola Sturgeon does, and the population in general is closer to the English.

That leaves Northern Ireland, who for the most part identify as British much more than Irish, quite like the queen, and don't really want to be joined with us. The Good Friday agreement practically means unless they vote en masse to leave the UK, which they won't over something like Brexit, they're stuck with 'em.

Northern Ireland has one advantage the rest of the UK doesn't - you can quite easily just move across the border to the Republic if you want to stay in the EU. So Northern Ireland has less of a reason to panic and leave the UK when there';s somewhere they can go if it bothers them that much.
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SaucissonSecCy
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(Original post by americandragon)
Many in Northern Ireland have indicated that they would like to be a part of the European Union. But what gives you the impression that enough people want this to go so far as to vote to leave the United Kingdom and join the Republic of Ireland? Unionist parties won significantly more of the popular vote in the assembly elections in March. Most people in Northern Ireland identify as British. Although Sinn Fein were only just behind the DUP in terms of the popular vote, they'd need a great deal more support in the North before a border poll was even considered. Also worth mentioning that many in the Republic have no interest in a United Ireland. In the South, Sinn Fein are largely a party that receives the protest vote.

I have no doubt that a United Ireland will come about in the future but I just can't see it. The older generations in the North identify more British than Irish. It is the more Republican sentiment amongst younger generations that could bring about a United Ireland but I don't see this happening in the very near future.
I don't think that re the EU, I agree. But I do think Scottish independence would pretty much kill the unionist cause, besides a tiny minority of some ultra hardliners.

There would be no union jack even ffs.
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username1308602
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(Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
I don't think that re the EU, I agree. But I do think Scottish independence would pretty much kill the unionist cause, besides a tiny minority of some ultra hardliners.

There would be no union jack even ffs.
I agree that a lot of Unionism is to do with Scotland, rather than England or Wales. But I don't see the possibility of Scottish independence having a huge impact on the appetite for leaving the UK in Northern Ireland.

In 2013, there was allegedly only 17% that wanted a United Ireland. Since the EU referendum, polls suggest that has only risen to 22%. Even if these statistics are slightly inaccurate, they're way off where they'd need to be.
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L i b
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(Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
If Scotland leaves the union it's hard to see what the unionists have any more.
Except for two things: Scotland isn't leaving the Union and the United Kingdom is more than just Scotland.

In addition, many NI citizens are valuing a more general European identity.
Oh yes, I've noticed a great deal of that. King Billy's face painted over on the murals to be replaced by Jean-Claude Juncker, the Falls and the Shankill united with the blue and gold banner of the EU flying from every lamppost, the great Belfast chippers slowly being replaced with bratwurst-houses.
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L i b
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(Original post by americandragon)
I agree that a lot of Unionism is to do with Scotland, rather than England or Wales.
Ulster Unionism doesn't really have much to do with any of Great Britain. Its most robust advocates are often essentially Ulster nationalists who see the bond with the rest of the UK in terms of Northern Ireland's status and position rather than truly viewing the UK as one country.
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SaucissonSecCy
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(Original post by L i b)
Except for two things: Scotland isn't leaving the Union and the United Kingdom is more than just Scotland.
.
I don't know why you're so sure Scotland wouldn't vote independence, it was 45% last time, and I've seen no sign that it would be less this time. Scotland can be independent in the EU,as has been announced, or outside if it falls apart, as Ireland will be.

And it seems mad to deny what a huge blow to NI unionism the loss of Scotland would be, the UK would make very little sense any more.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
I don't know why you're so sure Scotland wouldn't vote independence, it was 45% last time, and I've seen no sign that it would be less this time. Scotland can be independent in the EU,as has been announced, or outside if it falls apart, as Ireland will be.

And it seems mad to deny what a huge blow to NI unionism the loss of Scotland would be, the UK would make very little sense any more.
I'm honestly not sure you understand the emotional bond and national pride that unionists have.

1) Scotland may leave but it won't be because of the EU and it largely comes down to whether May can sell the union or whether we see a fear based campaign again.

2) NI is not leaving. Despite record low approval ratings for Foster the DUP lost all of 1.2%, Sinn Feinn gained because they were strategically smart (they won seats held by independents) rather than because we saw a nationalist surge. NI is probably less likely to go because of its history, everything is polarised there.

Your right about Wales though. Not only did it vote with England for Brexit but if you look at the political map you can see that for most of the 1900's Wales was very distinct with its own politics.. now you can see the Tory/English border sweeping towards the coast (Tories likely to win 5-7 seats).
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Jammy Duel
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United Ireland under direct rule methinks.
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Rakas21
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The British Isles must be made whole again.
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SaucissonSecCy
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What's most weird is that so much of it comes down to what is pleasing about the flag- it just has ggravitas more than any other.

Actually I think a united Ireland and independent Scotland make more sense, but the flag, monarchy etc has a bind.

What we could of course do is like the EU- allow independence and different currencies but have the union jack as our collabarative symbol over trade, certain laws etc.
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Airmed
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I'm a Nationalist and even I don't think we will have an united Ireland under Irish rule by the time I'm on my way out. It's sad to me, but I cannot see a future where everything will work out. I don't even have a solid faith that Scotland will leave the UK.
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Bretwalda Oswald
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(Original post by Airmed)
I'm a Nationalist and even I don't think we will have an united Ireland under Irish rule by the time I'm on my way out. It's sad to me, but I cannot see a future where everything will work out. I don't even have a solid faith that Scotland will leave the UK.
I think Ireland should be reconquered.
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Airmed
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(Original post by Bretwalda Oswald)
I think Ireland should be reconquered.
Under British rule? Yeah, no, that won't happen. Cute, but it won't. If people want to believe in such thing, then that's alright, but I don't see it happening whatsoever.
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Bretwalda Oswald
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(Original post by Airmed)
Under British rule? Yeah, no, that won't happen. Cute, but it won't. If people want to believe in such thing, then that's alright, but I don't see it happening whatsoever.
Yeah, let's reconquer Ireland and plant a statue of Cromwell in Dublin
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Airmed
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(Original post by Bretwalda Oswald)
Yeah, let's reconquer Ireland and plant a statue of Cromwell in Dublin
You're funny.
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L i b
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(Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
I don't know why you're so sure Scotland wouldn't vote independence, it was 45% last time, and I've seen no sign that it would be less this time. Scotland can be independent in the EU,as has been announced, or outside if it falls apart, as Ireland will be.
Yes, but it seems you're contesting that you have seen signs that the result would in fact be more people in support of independence than in 2014 rather than no signs that more people will vote to stay in the UK. Polling does not bear that out.

But ultimately the point is that there is not a referendum in Scotland on the table. It seems a bit unusual to be suggesting that Scotland could leave the UK when there is no independence referendum happening in the near future.

And it seems mad to deny what a huge blow to NI unionism the loss of Scotland would be, the UK would make very little sense any more.
Why? The UK does not depend on Scotland for its existence and most of the actual pro-Union arguments in Northern Ireland that are not simply based on Ulster nationalism would endure.
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L i b
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I'm honestly not sure you understand the emotional bond and national pride that unionists have.

1) Scotland may leave but it won't be because of the EU and it largely comes down to whether May can sell the union or whether we see a fear based campaign again.
Yet of course what you dismiss as a fear-based campaign worked and is an essential feature of selling the union. When a proposition is made - for example saying that Scottish independence would benefit Scotland - the obvious thing to do is to point out the level of stability and investment that Scotland receives as part of being within the UK. The negative, that there would be deep public sector cuts if this didn't happen, is an inherent part of that.

There are people with strong views on either side. What a sensible campaign does is play for the middle. Those Scots in the middle (roughly 30%) would not buy grandiose statements about principles, the union being an enduring partnership with centuries of history, or - on the other side - nations being right to govern themselves. They wanted to know, quite reasonably, how it would affect their own priorities: the health service, their wages, their pensions.

The most persuasive argument that the Scottish nationalists made in the 2014 referendum campaign was complete rubbish, scaremongering about the NHS being privatised by the UK Government weeks out from polling day. It was nonsense, and it was fear-based, but at least it recognised one of the priorities of that uncommitted centre.
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Quady
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(Original post by L i b)
Yet of course what you dismiss as a fear-based campaign worked and is an essential feature of selling the union. When a proposition is made - for example saying that Scottish independence would benefit Scotland - the obvious thing to do is to point out the level of stability and investment that Scotland receives as part of being within the UK. The negative, that there would be deep public sector cuts if this didn't happen, is an inherent part of that.

There are people with strong views on either side. What a sensible campaign does is play for the middle. Those Scots in the middle (roughly 30%) would not buy grandiose statements about principles, the union being an enduring partnership with centuries of history, or - on the other side - nations being right to govern themselves. They wanted to know, quite reasonably, how it would affect their own priorities: the health service, their wages, their pensions.

The most persuasive argument that the Scottish nationalists made in the 2014 referendum campaign was complete rubbish, scaremongering about the NHS being privatised by the UK Government weeks out from polling day. It was nonsense, and it was fear-based, but at least it recognised one of the priorities of that uncommitted centre.
That arguement was heavily predicted on Scotland having to the the European Union too.

I don't think using the NHS helped the Yes campaign at all tbh. The stance on nukes seemed to be more persuasive from what I saw. Bairns not Bombs...
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