ENough of "the polls have been wrong before!"

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ableambler
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The polls have been wrong when there is little to separate the parties. 1992, 2015 and Brexit all had close polls. This election does not have close polls. But if the polls are wrong this time, then opinion polling needs to be discarded, or the pollsters are using seriously flawed statistics.
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ByEeek
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Any form of prediction is flawed. Be is the weather forecast, opinion polls or traffic modelling. But it is done because there is demand for it. But no one can accurately and consistently predict the future.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ableambler)
The polls have been wrong when there is little to separate the parties. 1992, 2015 and Brexit all had close polls. This election does not have close polls. But if the polls are wrong this time, then opinion polling needs to be discarded, or the pollsters are using seriously flawed statistics.
In 2015 telephone pollsters gave the Tories a consistent lead. In Brexit, polling was suggesting Leave ahead pre-Cox.

The people who think polls are wrong are the people who believe the media interpretation of polls.
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anarchism101
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Depends what you mean by "wrong". For example, in purely statistical terms, the French election polling was probably more "wrong" that the Brexit polling was - it underpredicted Macron's vote share by a good 3 or 4 points. But that didn't remotely change the result, and so no-one noticed.
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paul514
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(Original post by ableambler)
The polls have been wrong when there is little to separate the parties. 1992, 2015 and Brexit all had close polls. This election does not have close polls. But if the polls are wrong this time, then opinion polling needs to be discarded, or the pollsters are using seriously flawed statistics.
Completely agree, the polling companies say themselves that they are accurate within a couple of percent


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SomeGuyHere
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The polls are hardly ever correct. 1992 they said it would be a hung parliament (major got a majority). 1997 they overestimated the labour win(it wasn't anywhere near the landslide they thought it would be despite the fact it WAS a massive landslide). This trend continued through the labour years and came to be known as the "shy tory factor".

In 2015 I'm sure you remember everyone assumed it would be a hung parliament as well.

They have, through all of my lifetime, overestimated the left and underestimated the right.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1933
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Mystery.
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Polls have been wrong before !!!!
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Connor27
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The thing with polls; most people don't understand what the term "margin of error" means.

Of course, the Conservative majority in 2015; Brexit, and Donald Trump's victory in America were all within the MoE. Corbyn becoming PM, is quite clearly not.
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