The Commons Bar Mk XIV - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

username878267
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#81
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#81
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
FIVE TIMES he refused to say yes, it may be semantics but it does not change the fact that he refused to specifically condemn a subset, which was the question. Condemning a subset does not mean the whole cannot be condemned, as per the previous post. If he condemns all bombing why would he not explicitly condemn a specific group?

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He said 'Yes I condemn all bombings'.

Of course he condemns any act of violence which the IRA took.

Why are the Telegraph leading with that rather than leading with the mess on social care which is a policy that actually affects people?
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Rakas21
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#82
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(Original post by Bornblue)
Her new policy seems to be similar to Labour's policy, except that she hasn't costed it like Labour have.

If Labour backtracked on a major policy and then didn't cost their new policy, the right wing press would be absolutely slating them for it.

Will they do the same for the Tories?

Rarely before has a party's manifesto fallen apart within four days of releasing it. Strong and stable? As if.
Not really. Labour's policy is only a short term cap as they integrate it with the NHS and fund it via tax.

The Tory policy is still as it was (basically an increased state threshold paid for via a de facto inheritance tax) but now with a cap on top to reduce the amount of wealth needed from the homes (basically reducing said inheritance tax).

The manifesto has not fallen apart, only one policy has. I doubt for example that Labour will find much traction from the means testing policies.

In fairness to the whole costing argument, that's because the Tories have a 7 year record of austerity, nobody believes they won't fund it. The reason Labour has to cost it is because nobody trusts them fiscally.
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username878267
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#83
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#83
(Original post by Rakas21)
Not really. Labour's policy is only a short term cap as they integrate it with the NHS and fund it via tax.

The Tory policy is still as it was (basically an increased state threshold paid for via a de facto inheritance tax) but now with a cap on top to reduce the amount of wealth needed from the homes (basically reducing said inheritance tax).

The manifesto has not fallen apart, only one policy has. I doubt for example that Labour will find much traction from the means testing policies.

In fairness to the whole costing argument, that's because the Tories have a 7 year record of austerity, nobody believes they won't fund it. The reason Labour has to cost it is because nobody trusts them fiscally.
She has u-turned on a major policy within four days of releasing it and this is the woman who is supposed to be the tough negotiator that will get us a good deal from the EU.

Fair play to Osborne for having a go and calling her out for it.
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Jammy Duel
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#84
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#84
(Original post by Bornblue)
He said 'Yes I condemn all bombings'.

Of course he condemns any act of violence which the IRA took.

Why are the Telegraph leading with that rather than leading with the mess on social care which is a policy that actually affects people?
Do you know what the great thing about transcripts is: he didn't.

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Rakas21
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#85
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(Original post by Bornblue)
She has u-turned on a major policy within four days of releasing it and this is the woman who is supposed to be the tough negotiator that will get us a good deal from the EU.

Fair play to Osborne for having a go and calling her out for it.
I'm not sure it's credible to compare a u-turn at election time with negotiations.
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username878267
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#86
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I'm not sure it's credible to compare a u-turn at election time with negotiations.
I think it is. Rather than defend her position she's caved in.

Do you think that this makes her look weak?
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Rakas21
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#87
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(Original post by Bornblue)
I think it is. Rather than defend her position she's caved in.

Do you think that this makes her look weak?
She had to cave now to win a massive majority. In negotiations, the entire point of a massive loyal majority is that she does not have to cave.

On this occasion, yes. She should have been opportunistic and called it as an inheritance tax to dig into the Labour vote.
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username878267
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#88
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(Original post by Rakas21)
She had to cave now to win a massive majority. In negotiations, the entire point of a massive loyal majority is that she does not have to cave.

On this occasion, yes. She should have been opportunistic and called it as an inheritance tax to dig into the Labour vote.
Osborne has really ripped into her this morning. No punches pulled at all.

Great.
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username280380
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#89
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#89
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
FIVE TIMES he refused to say yes, it may be semantics but it does not change the fact that he refused to specifically condemn a subset, which was the question. Condemning a subset does not mean the whole cannot be condemned, as per the previous post. If he condemns all bombing why would he not explicitly condemn a specific group?

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About the same response as the Tories in this clip...


The Tories are being shown as weak and pathetic and desperate for power and nothing else.
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username280380
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#90
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In other news, even ICM is showing significant Labour momentum. And they are the one's who usually tend to lean Tory.


Conservatives: 47% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 33% (up 5)
Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
Ukip: 4% (down 2)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 14 points (down 6)

I'm in love with George Osborne right now..
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/s...b03ddbc8d5be95
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Rakas21
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#91
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#91
(Original post by Afcwimbledon2)
In other news, even ICM is showing significant Labour momentum. And they are the one's who usually tend to lean Tory.


Conservatives: 47% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 33% (up 5)
Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
Ukip: 4% (down 2)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 14 points (down 6)

I'm in love with George Osborne right now..
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/s...b03ddbc8d5be95
ICM and Comres use demographic weighting (along with the Ashcroft model) for turnout vs stated intention (at the last election, Labour voters disproportionately stayed home).

All i can say is thank jebus, it's still bad but if the Tories are anywhere near 47% on June 8th then the other parties vote share is pretty irelevant.
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username280380
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#92
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#92
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(Original post by Rakas21)
ICM and Comres use demographic weighting (along with the Ashcroft model) for turnout vs stated intention (at the last election, Labour voters disproportionately stayed home).

All i can say is thank jebus, it's still bad but if the Tories are anywhere near 47% on June 8th then the other parties vote share is pretty irelevant.
Indeed, as without the weighting the actual numbers would be 33% Tory, 29% Labour, 16% Don't Know.
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Saracen's Fez
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#93
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This week's Welsh Political Barometer:

Labour: 44% (+9)
Conservatives: 34% (-7)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
Others: 3% (+1)

Labour: 26 seats (+1)
Conservatives: 10 seats (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)

Labour turn a 10-point lead for the Tories a few weeks back into a 10-point lead for themselves.
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Rakas21
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#94
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(Original post by Afcwimbledon2)
+

Indeed, as without the weighting the actual numbers would be 33% Tory, 29% Labour, 16% Don't Know.
Aye. ICM i believe also weight the DK back to the prior election (ironically that has been helping Labour until this week).

Another interesting tidbit is that other than Ashcroft i believe they are now the only pollster who has actually taken into account where the Kippers are standing. Apparently in the postcodes where they are not an option, ICM have from this poll removed them which forces them to choose a party or DK. This may be a factor in the smaller Tory drop albeit probably more accurate vs other pollsters.
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Rakas21
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#95
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
This week's Welsh Political Barometer:

Labour: 44% (+9)
Conservatives: 34% (-7)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
Others: 3% (+1)

Labour: 26 seats (+1)
Conservatives: 10 seats (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)

Labour turn a 10-point lead for the Tories a few weeks back into a 10-point lead for themselves.
Certainly very interesting. It will be interesting to see if this continues or whether this was just an especially bad weekend to do a poll which amplifies the result.
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Saracen's Fez
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#96
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Certainly very interesting. It will be interesting to see if this continues or whether this was just an especially bad weekend to do a poll which amplifies the result.
And of course at a time where the media were going over Welsh Labour's achievements in the Assembly following the death of Rhodri Morgan.
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Rakas21
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#97
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
And of course at a time where the media were going over Welsh Labour's achievements in the Assembly following the death of Rhodri Morgan.
Ah. Had heard of that but did not know he was of much importance. Not really mentioned in the national media.
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Saracen's Fez
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#98
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Ah. Had heard of that but did not know he was of much importance. Not really mentioned in the national media.
No, he was a massively popular figure across parties in Wales. There's been quite a lot of stuff in the Welsh media, documentaries and the like as well.
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Rakas21
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#99
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(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
No, he was a massively popular figure across parties in Wales. There's been quite a lot of stuff in the Welsh media, documentaries and the like as well.
Ah. Also interesting i think is that this poll shows Plaid support down despite the debate and the Libs barely moving.

Like England (and to a lesser degree Scotland) it seems one of the notable things in this election is that politics is reverting to the main two parties. Hell, it's possible come election day that in Wales the Lab-Con vote could exceed 85% of the vote.

Do we know how many Welsh seats the Kippers are not standing? Namely Tory targets.
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That Bearded Man
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#100
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#100
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
FIVE TIMES he refused to say yes, it may be semantics but it does not change the fact that he refused to specifically condemn a subset, which was the question. Condemning a subset does not mean the whole cannot be condemned, as per the previous post. If he condemns all bombing why would he not explicitly condemn a specific group?

Posted from TSR Mobile
It's silly, "do you condemn the Germans for the Blitz"
"Yes, I condemn all bombing during WW2"
"But you won't just blame the Germans?"
"It's more complicated that that"

MAINSTREAM MEDIA - JEREMY CORBYN SUPPORTS NAZIS
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