Westminster voting intention: CON: 44% (-2) LAB: 38% (+4) LDEM: 7% (-) UKIP: 5% (-2) Watch

unomie
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Second poll in the 5% range...Seems labour may pull this back after all
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Quady
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Which poll?

Sous dubious. Those numbers add up to 94% right?

6% therefore covers:
- SNP
- PC
- Greens
- SF
- DUP
- SDLP

In 2015 all those parties won seats and had 11% of the vote.
Another 1% was won by other candidates.
Quite a difference between 6% and 12%...
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RuneFreeze
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(Original post by Quady)
Which poll?

Sous dubious. Those numbers add up to 94% right?

6% therefore covers:
- SNP
- PC
- Greens
- SF
- DUP
- SDLP

In 2015 all those parties won seats and had 11% of the vote.
Another 1% was won by other candidates.
Quite a difference between 6% and 12%...
I don't know but it does seem plausible...
It is true that their have been several polls showing labours surge similarly
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Paracosm
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#4
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This is the YouGov poll, I believe.
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ckfeister
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#5
Silent voters go to Labour this time, he could be winning.
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unomie
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#6
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(Original post by Quady)
Which poll?

Sous dubious. Those numbers add up to 94% right?

6% therefore covers:
- SNP
- PC
- Greens
- SF
- DUP
- SDLP

In 2015 all those parties won seats and had 11% of the vote.
Another 1% was won by other candidates.
Quite a difference between 6% and 12%...
YouGov. Yes the SNP has lost a lot of ground and the greens have too with the election prediction to be close lots of people are switching from 3rd party to one of the main 2
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ScottishBrexitor
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A Scottish subsample of the recent Comres poll showed:

SNP - 40
Con - 35
Lab - 17
Lib - 4

Scottish Conservatives in the 5% range, they might win the most seats in Scotland, I'd love to see the faces of Corbynistas and SNP supporters if it were to happen.
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Midlander
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(Original post by ScottishBrexitor)
A Scottish subsample of the recent Comres poll showed:

SNP - 40
Con - 35
Lab - 17
Lib - 4

Scottish Conservatives in the 5% range, they might win the most seats in Scotland, I'd love to see the faces of Corbynistas and SNP supporters if it were to happen.
Scottish Labour is standing on a progressive unionist platform which appeals to too small a chunk of the Scottish electorate. Though it is odd to explain the swing to the Tories from people who have voted Labour for generations up there. Turkeys voting for sodding Christmas.
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akbar0123
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Yes, go Corbyn

JUNE SHALL MARK THE END OF MAY
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paul514
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So funny people think labour can win 😂

You're going to be upset in 2 weeks


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ScottishBrexitor
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(Original post by Midlander)
Scottish Labour is standing on a progressive unionist platform which appeals to too small a chunk of the Scottish electorate. Though it is odd to explain the swing to the Tories from people who have voted Labour for generations up there. Turkeys voting for sodding Christmas.
The Ruth Davidson effect, she's leader of the Scottish Conservatives and is very popular. Theresa May is also generally liked in Scotland which is usually odd for any Conservative PM. The Scot Cons have also done a good job as establishing themselves as the Unionist party for Scotland thus getting a huge chunk of the pro-unionist Scots.

A few months ago there was this poll which showed that Ruth and Theresa May had higher approval ratings than Sturgeon.
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Midlander
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(Original post by ScottishBrexitor)
The Ruth Davidson effect, she's leader of the Scottish Conservatives and is very popular. Theresa May is also generally liked in Scotland which is usually odd for any Conservative PM. The Scot Cons have also done a good job as establishing themselves as the Unionist party for Scotland thus getting a huge chunk of the pro-unionist Scots.

A few months ago there was this poll which showed that Ruth and Theresa May had higher approval ratings than Sturgeon.
No, the surge is entirely down to Ruth Davidson. She has single-handedly dragged that party up when the Westminster Tories couldn't care less. Progressive unionists just form too small a chunk of the electorate for Labour to make headway.
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pol pot noodles
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The left are getting a bit carried away with this Labour surge. ICM still has the Tories at a 14 point lead, ComRes at 12 points. The average current Tory lead in the different polls is almost 10 points. It should also be pointed out, that for everyone claiming the Tory manifesto was a disaster, the average Tory vote share has only dropped a couple points in the last month. Labour's surge is pretty much entirely down to them taking points from the Lib Dems, Greens and 'other'.
Compared to 2015, the average Tory vote from the opinion polls shows a hefty increase in vote share in every region of the UK.
On currently polling the Tories would win a greater share of the vote in this election than Thatcher or Blair did. After 7 years of austerity and critics accusing them of being the 'nasty' party they'd yet again bump up their vote, this time by 8 points in two years. They'd increase their lead over Labour by an additional 3 points. They'd win about 40 additional seats, having a majority of almost 100. The Tories would get almost double Labour's vote in Scotland, and would have massively narrowed the gap in the North of England and Wales.
And the left are getting excited? What, because they'd only lose really badly rather than get massacred? If the above actually happen is that seriously meant to be a victory for Corbyn and the left?
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Midlander
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(Original post by pol pot noodles)
The left are getting a bit carried away with this Labour surge. ICM still has the Tories at a 14 point lead, ComRes at 12 points. The average current Tory lead in the different polls is almost 10 points. It should also be pointed out, that for everyone claiming the Tory manifesto was a disaster, the average Tory vote share has only dropped a couple points in the last month. Labour's surge is pretty much entirely down to them taking points from the Lib Dems, Greens and 'other'.
Compared to 2015, the average Tory vote from the opinion polls shows a hefty increase in vote share in every region of the UK.
On currently polling the Tories would win a greater share of the vote in this election than Thatcher or Blair did. After 7 years of austerity and critics accusing them of being the 'nasty' party they'd yet again bump up their vote, this time by 8 points in two years. They'd increase their lead over Labour by an additional 3 points. They'd win about 40 additional seats, having a majority of almost 100. The Tories would get almost double Labour's vote in Scotland, and would have massively narrowed the gap in the North of England and Wales.
And the left are getting excited? What, because they'd only lose really badly rather than get massacred? If the above actually happen is that seriously meant to be a victory for Corbyn and the left?
Don't think anyone's predictions for the outcome have changed. Don't worry yourself, the turkeys will still vote for Christmas next Thursday and then a few years later wonder what happened to the schools, police, hospitals etc.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by unomie)
Second poll in the 5% range...Seems labour may pull this back after all
(Original post by ckfeister)
Silent voters go to Labour this time, he could be winning.
(Original post by Quady)
Which poll?

Sous dubious. Those numbers add up to 94% right?

6% therefore covers:
- SNP
- PC
- Greens
- SF
- DUP
- SDLP

In 2015 all those parties won seats and had 11% of the vote.
Another 1% was won by other candidates.
Quite a difference between 6% and 12%...
The reason for your posts are one and the same, pollsters who do not weight turnout demographically are seeing a good number of DK state that they will vote Labour.

Unfortunately for those who think this is a good thing, those polls require a ~85% turnout to be accurate. The pollsters who weight turnout demographically (ICM and Comres) show larger Tory leads because they assume a ~70% turnout, broadly in line with the last election.

Basically, that result depends on a huge number of 2015 non-voters coming out to vote.

Also worth saying that thanks to the swing from Kip to Con, the Tories would increase their majority even if the gap was below 6%.

(Original post by Paracosm)
This is the YouGov poll, I believe.
OBR. Youguv increased to 7%. ICM and Comres are at 12% and 14%.
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Rebellious
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I still think that the Conservatives will win with a larger majority than before but Labour will do better than earlier polls predicted.
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paul514
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(Original post by Rebellious)
I still think that the Conservatives will win with a larger majority than before but Labour will do better than earlier polls predicted.
Well you're prediction of results would be extremely difficult to be wrong.


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meenu89
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Labour can't win because of Scotland. Also the election battle takes place in marginal seats where the Tories are polling much better, this projected national vote share doesn't mean anything.
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username878267
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(Original post by pol pot noodles)
The left are getting a bit carried away with this Labour surge. ICM still has the Tories at a 14 point lead, ComRes at 12 points. The average current Tory lead in the different polls is almost 10 points. It should also be pointed out, that for everyone claiming the Tory manifesto was a disaster, the average Tory vote share has only dropped a couple points in the last month. Labour's surge is pretty much entirely down to them taking points from the Lib Dems, Greens and 'other'.
Compared to 2015, the average Tory vote from the opinion polls shows a hefty increase in vote share in every region of the UK.
On currently polling the Tories would win a greater share of the vote in this election than Thatcher or Blair did. After 7 years of austerity and critics accusing them of being the 'nasty' party they'd yet again bump up their vote, this time by 8 points in two years. They'd increase their lead over Labour by an additional 3 points. They'd win about 40 additional seats, having a majority of almost 100. The Tories would get almost double Labour's vote in Scotland, and would have massively narrowed the gap in the North of England and Wales.
And the left are getting excited? What, because they'd only lose really badly rather than get massacred? If the above actually happen is that seriously meant to be a victory for Corbyn and the left?
A few weeks ago we were looking at the wipeout of the Labour party. They've done well, campaigned well and the Tories' campaign has been poor even according to many Tories themselves.

I'd be delighted if Labour kept at least 200 seats given what seemed likely when the election was called.

The biggest reason Tories are getting a boost this election is Brexit.
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ChaoticButterfly
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Just imagine if the UKIP vote wasn't collapsing to the Tories :cry:
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