Are the Tory days numbered? Watch

Voi
Badges: 12
Rep:
?
#1
Report Thread starter 2 years ago
#1
We saw at the last general election (2017) a huge rise in the lab youth vote - mostly because of one thing: house prices. My feeling is that in the next general election, say in 5 years, if Theresa May as PM and the DUP are still screwing the youth with house prices/tuition fee rises, there will be a huge Tory wipeout similar to when Blair came to power. This is based on two things:

1) House Prices/Rent - if they continue to rise, in 5 years time, when there is a larger percentage of youth being screwed over by this, they'll be an ever growing lab vote.
2) Immigration - If the Tories don't cut it, lab will get more votes as the majority of immigration tend to vote lab (take London for example).

These two things, alongside the death of traditional 'old granny' Tory voters in the next 5 years, might, I feel, give lab a huge victory next general election.

So, really, whatever the Tories do, they're days are numbered - unless they (a) fix house prices (b) reduce immigration - I feel their loss is otherwise inevitable (just as a matter of logic/common sense really).

Would you agree with my argument?
0
reply
Whiskey&Freedom
Badges: 3
Rep:
?
#2
Report 2 years ago
#2
1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.

2. Labour is responsible for most third world immigration. The Conservatives have had to maintain it because native working class people are of such poor stock that most have no economic value.

The next election will see A STRONG AND STABLE Conservative government in power.
1
reply
username917703
Badges: 17
Rep:
?
#3
Report 2 years ago
#3
(Original post by Whiskey&Freedom)
1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.

2. Labour is responsible for most third world immigration. The Conservatives have had to maintain it because native working class people are of such poor stock that most have no economic value.

The next election will see A STRONG AND STABLE Conservative government in power.
lol
3
reply
IamJacksContempt
Badges: 16
Rep:
?
#4
Report 2 years ago
#4
(Original post by Whiskey&Freedom)
1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.

2. Labour is responsible for most third world immigration. The Conservatives have had to maintain it because native working class people are of such poor stock that most have no economic value.

The next election will see A STRONG AND STABLE Conservative government in power.
You have to be a parody.
3
reply
BigYoSpeck
Badges: 18
Rep:
?
#5
Report 2 years ago
#5
(Original post by Whiskey&Freedom)
1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.
If everyone works harder to buy something there isn't enough of for everyone, then it just becomes expensive enough that everyone can't afford it.

And are you going to tell a nurse, fireman, junior doctor, teacher, or any other number of professions that aren't well paid relative to the work they do to just work harder?

Your post reeks of a lack of empathy or understanding of how real people live and work, and contentment for your own fortunate position. Some people can't just work harder, they are working at the level of their own competency and the reward for that is insufficient to survive.
4
reply
Whiskey&Freedom
Badges: 3
Rep:
?
#6
Report 2 years ago
#6
(Original post by BigYoSpeck)
If everyone works harder to buy something there isn't enough of for everyone, then it just becomes expensive enough that everyone can't afford it.
It is a competitive market. Raise your game.

And are you going to tell a nurse, fireman, junior doctor, teacher, or any other number of professions that aren't well paid relative to the work they do to just work harder?
Nothing stops them from changing careers or setting up a successful business besides their own lack of initiative and poor work ethic.
0
reply
BigYoSpeck
Badges: 18
Rep:
?
#7
Report 2 years ago
#7
(Original post by Whiskey&Freedom)
It is a competitive market. Raise your game.
As many girls will attest I ain't got no game bro!

Nothing stops them from changing careers or setting up a successful business besides their own lack of initiative and poor work ethic.
You think all public services staff should abandon those positions or on top of their existing workloads just run a side business?
0
reply
barnetlad
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#8
Report 2 years ago
#8
I wish they were but sadly doubt it. Especially if Scotland becomes independent.
0
reply
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#9
Report 2 years ago
#9
I don't really buy that, the new, young and small party voters got them to about 35%, the rest were 2015 Tories who can be won back with a broader and more positive policy offer.
1
reply
Jammy Duel
  • Political Ambassador
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#10
Report 2 years ago
#10
(Original post by Voi)
We saw at the last general election (2017) a huge rise in the lab youth vote - mostly because of one thing: house prices. My feeling is that in the next general election, say in 5 years, if Theresa May as PM and the DUP are still screwing the youth with house prices/tuition fee rises, there will be a huge Tory wipeout similar to when Blair came to power. This is based on two things:

1) House Prices/Rent - if they continue to rise, in 5 years time, when there is a larger percentage of youth being screwed over by this, they'll be an ever growing lab vote.
2) Immigration - If the Tories don't cut it, lab will get more votes as the majority of immigration tend to vote lab (take London for example).

These two things, alongside the death of traditional 'old granny' Tory voters in the next 5 years, might, I feel, give lab a huge victory next general election.

So, really, whatever the Tories do, they're days are numbered - unless they (a) fix house prices (b) reduce immigration - I feel their loss is otherwise inevitable (just as a matter of logic/common sense really).

Would you agree with my argument?
The flaw in your argument is that there aren't the young people left to achieve this win, and a hard left Labour focusing on student politics will just lose elections by alienating the middle aged and middle class, the only reason Corbyn did so well is that May ran a dreadful campaign and took parts of the electorate for granted. The other thing is that you seem to be assuming that political views are static; you know those "old granny" tory voters? Most of them probably voted labour 50 years ago. The people who heavily voted leave last year, they voted remain 40 years ago. People are Labour voters until they want good government rather than handouts. A student will vote Labour if you promise to give them "free" tuition fees and a load of hand outs, then they grow up and have a job they want security in, a mortgage and savings for which they want a stable economy, a family they want to keep safe- suddenly the handouts don't matter. Most people don't stay trots forever.

And that's before Labour descend into civil war, they're no good at coups.
1
reply
Voi
Badges: 12
Rep:
?
#11
Report Thread starter 2 years ago
#11
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
The flaw in your argument is that there aren't the young people left to achieve this win, and a hard left Labour focusing on student politics will just lose elections by alienating the middle aged and middle class, the only reason Corbyn did so well is that May ran a dreadful campaign and took parts of the electorate for granted. The other thing is that you seem to be assuming that political views are static; you know those "old granny" tory voters? Most of them probably voted labour 50 years ago. The people who heavily voted leave last year, they voted remain 40 years ago. People are Labour voters until they want good government rather than handouts. A student will vote Labour if you promise to give them "free" tuition fees and a load of hand outs, then they grow up and have a job they want security in, a mortgage and savings for which they want a stable economy, a family they want to keep safe- suddenly the handouts don't matter. Most people don't stay trots forever.

And that's before Labour descend into civil war, they're no good at coups.
You seem to have missed my main point, which is that the percentage of young people who will vote lab is increasing, not decreasing as you seem to think. This is because house prices are increasing faster than wages. So, in 5 years, they'll be a larger percentage of young professionals who can't afford a house, can't afford rent, and will be pigeonholed into house shares and studio apartments in poor areas. This will ensure that they remain labour voters well into their late 20s and 30s, and perhaps even the rest of their lives if they face the prospect of having to rent until retirement. Generally, Tory voters = own house, labour voters = rent. Unless the property maket crashes anytime soon, I can only see more and more young professions living unfulfilled lives by having to rent. You speak very much about wanting security, but this new generation of young professionals won't have it, as the only way to ensure financial security is through owning a house - an asset which is becoming ever more out of reach for them
0
reply
Kocytean
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#12
Report 2 years ago
#12
Your question can be reduced to that of whether the set of Tory days in power is not uncountable infinite. As it turns out, since we are only dealing with one dimension of time, there is a one-to-one relationship between the elements in the set and the natural numbers, meaning that the Tory days in power are less than uncountably infinite, and therefore numbered. QED.
0
reply
username878267
Badges: 15
Rep:
?
#13
Report 2 years ago
#13
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
The flaw in your argument is that there aren't the young people left to achieve this win, and a hard left Labour focusing on student politics will just lose elections by alienating the middle aged and middle class, the only reason Corbyn did so well is that May ran a dreadful campaign and took parts of the electorate for granted. The other thing is that you seem to be assuming that political views are static; you know those "old granny" tory voters? Most of them probably voted labour 50 years ago. The people who heavily voted leave last year, they voted remain 40 years ago. People are Labour voters until they want good government rather than handouts. A student will vote Labour if you promise to give them "free" tuition fees and a load of hand outs, then they grow up and have a job they want security in, a mortgage and savings for which they want a stable economy, a family they want to keep safe- suddenly the handouts don't matter. Most people don't stay trots forever.

And that's before Labour descend into civil war, they're no good at coups.
Considering Labour got more votes in the 35-44 category, your assertion that the main people who voted Labour were young people wanting handouts is nonsense. This age group is a core mortgage paying, family raising group too.
0
reply
username878267
Badges: 15
Rep:
?
#14
Report 2 years ago
#14
(Original post by Rakas21)
I don't really buy that, the new, young and small party voters got them to about 35%, the rest were 2015 Tories who can be won back with a broader and more positive policy offer.
Again, you were predicting a massive Tory majority. Whole areas of the country such as Yorkshire became increasingly red. Places such as Wrexham and Bridgend were areas in which Labour increased their majority despite you saying they would definitely turn blue.

Politics is unpredictable and neither me nor you nor any commentator or politician has a clue what will happen.
0
reply
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#15
Report 2 years ago
#15
(Original post by Bornblue)
Again, you were predicting a massive Tory majority. Whole areas of the country such as Yorkshire became increasingly red. Places such as Wrexham and Bridgend were areas in which Labour increased their majority despite you saying they would definitely turn blue.

I find it strange that people who got the last election spectacularly wrong are suddenly so sure they can predict what will happen in the next one.

Politics is unpredictable and neither me nor you nor any commentator or politician has a clue what will happen.
Ah, i have not said the Tories will win (as in predict), just that i don't have the lack of faith in them that OP does.

Indeed.
0
reply
username878267
Badges: 15
Rep:
?
#16
Report 2 years ago
#16
(Original post by Rakas21)
Ah, i have not said the Tories will win (as in predict), just that i don't have the lack of faith in them that OP does.

Indeed.
It's becoming increasingly clear that all these commentators and pundits are no more insightful or capable of spotting trends than people on here.

The media throughout the election constantly went on about how many people who 'had voted Labour all their lives' were voting Tory yet it turned out more 2015 Tories voted Labour than the other way round.

Yet how many media outlets picked up the trend of large numbers of former Tory voters going Labour?
0
reply
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#17
Report 2 years ago
#17
(Original post by Bornblue)
It's becoming increasingly clear that all these commentators and pundits are no more insightful or capable of spotting trends than people on here.

The media throughout the election constantly went on about how many people who 'had voted Labour all their lives' were voting Tory yet it turned out more 2015 Tories voted Labour than the other way round.

Yet how many media outlets picked up the trend of large numbers of former Tory voters going Labour?
The pundits are no different to you or i (aside from the paycheck), they largely appear to follow the polls.
0
reply
username878267
Badges: 15
Rep:
?
#18
Report 2 years ago
#18
(Original post by Rakas21)
The pundits are no different to you or i (aside from the paycheck), they largely appear to follow the polls.
Talking of polls ICM have changed their methodology again.

I'd actually like to see polling temporarily banned during election periods as I believe it has the potential to influence results.
0
reply
MagicNMedicine
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#19
Report 2 years ago
#19
(Original post by Voi)
You seem to have missed my main point, which is that the percentage of young people who will vote lab is increasing, not decreasing as you seem to think. This is because house prices are increasing faster than wages. So, in 5 years, they'll be a larger percentage of young professionals who can't afford a house, can't afford rent, and will be pigeonholed into house shares and studio apartments in poor areas. This will ensure that they remain labour voters well into their late 20s and 30s, and perhaps even the rest of their lives if they face the prospect of having to rent until retirement. Generally, Tory voters = own house, labour voters = rent. Unless the property maket crashes anytime soon, I can only see more and more young professions living unfulfilled lives by having to rent. You speak very much about wanting security, but this new generation of young professionals won't have it, as the only way to ensure financial security is through owning a house - an asset which is becoming ever more out of reach for them
This is the single biggest challenge for the Conservatives.

There is a very strong correlation between housing tenure and party voted for.

In the 2017 election:

53 per cent of home owners voted Conservative and 31 per cent voted Labour.

51 per cent of renters voted Labour and 32 per cent voted Conservative.

51 per cent who neither own their own home or rent voted Labour and 32 per cent voted Conservative.

The Conservatives have to do something about this or else every election will be fought in an increasingly difficult environment for them. They are losing ground to Labour more and more in London and London is a signal of the way other cities will go if housing trends continue.

The problem the Conservatives have here is their housing policy has generally been geared towards maintaining property prices, and supporting the interests of landlords whilst allowing the quality of rented property to deteriorate.

It's still possible for the Conservatives to gain ground in an environment where home ownership is difficult, if they can be seen as the party who ensures that people in rented accommodation have decent standards. But so many people these days who rent live in really poor conditions, and when you live in poor conditions you are angry because it massively affects your life.

When I look around my "echo chamber" of people I work with, live with, socialise with in London, it is basically made up of people aged between 21 and late 30s, mostly graduates of good unis, from differing income backgrounds but a lot from quite well off backgrounds, working in professions, lawyers, accountants, publishers, architects etc. They nearly all rent - and having previously been a mixture of Labour, Lib Dem, Green and the odd Tory voters, in 2017 seemed to be almost universally Labour.
0
reply
Fidel Che
Badges: 0
Rep:
?
#20
Report 2 years ago
#20
third world immigration yes of countried we colonised and robber, destroyed When Brits mobe abroad they are ex pats , people coming here are immigrants. Perhaps if we did not invade their countries , prop uppro western dictators and suck up to the Saudis we would not have the displacment of people Most people are fed up of 30 years of so called market economics thats why a change is coming. If it had anything to do with immigration why did the Ukip vote collapse Crawl back into your Tory holes Make way for Corbyn a man who wants yo give us a fairer society
0
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

Do you get study leave?

Yes- I like it (431)
58.64%
Yes- I don't like it (40)
5.44%
No- I want it (214)
29.12%
No- I don't want it (50)
6.8%

Watched Threads

View All