No one heard of Blackstone three years ago and now any piddly M&A analyst from Goldman is dying to make the move. No one heard of KKR a couple years ago either, but the kids making carry there are the ones who took the plunge.
I know a guy who joined this piddly bank called Barclays Capital in the 1980's to join some desk revolving credit derivatives. Let's just say he turned out alright.
The safe choice is goldman, the bold buy side balls on to make more money in the long run choice is Houleys. Restructuring is the hottest market right now and Houleys is an effing machine that is growing by the day.
Goldman gives you further options if you want to switch, but if this kid wants restucturing and wants a chance at carry, Houleys is a pretty awesome play.
You join up and comers on the way up, not while they're maturing. (Which, given Blackstone's latest numbers, may even be the case for them)
Anyway, tough call. 99% of kids take Goldmans because it's safe, but then again, 99% of bankers also never make it to the top either where the real money is made.