Trade deals with the rest of the world

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richard10012
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Liam Fox is struggling to make recover the losses if we don't get a good deal from Euro. I thought now we are leaving lots of countries would want a trade deal.
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ThomH97
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Lots of countries do want a trade deal with us, but while we are still a member of the EU no other trade deals can be made by just us. It is interesting that the EU has been able to overcome its insistence that free trade must be accompanied by freedom of movement with its deal with Japan.
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ByEeek
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I don't think people really understand what is at stake when we leave the EU customs union. A lot of people see this lovely idea of a UK company making something for sale and selling it abroad, be that the EU or US or wherever. The reality is that the days of factories having inputs of iron ore and outputting steel girders are long gone. British manufacturers import components from all over the world, assemble and then export. As a result, many businesses like Airbus for example are spread throughout Europe. After we leave the EU, every item that is imported from the EU will be subject to customs and potentially a tariff. No amount of deals with the US are going to make up for that. For the companies that have that sort of business model - they are going to be screwed. The only solution will be for them to move their production soley to Europe.
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MagicNMedicine
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Lots of countries would want a trade deal but on their terms, and to conclude one that actually benefits the UK is more difficult, especially when you try to balance off the different groups within the UK that will have concerns about trade deals.

Donald Trump does not like most of the trade deals the US is involved in, he wants a more protectionist approach that will increase the US ability to export to other markets but not open up the US to other countries. So a trade deal between the US and UK would likely be offered very much on their terms.

The US will likely push hard for three things, which will all be controversial in the UK:

1. The UK would have to significantly lower its food standards, so that the US can export the food that is currently not allowed to come in under EU rules because it's genetically modified or has used chlorine to wash the meat or because of the generally much lower animal welfare standards. The UK farming sector will massively oppose this as they will say they will be exposed to being undercut by cheap low-quality food coming in from the US and they won't be able to compete unless they quickly adopt the large scale, low cost, low animal-welfare processing techniques that the Americans do. It will also be opposed by environmentalists and animal welfare groups as well as people campaigning for public health and food standards protections.

2. The UK would need to open up its public sector procurement rules including the NHS to competition from US providers. US firms would want the right to legally bid for the right to deliver health contracts and prohibit the UK from having rules keeping it in government control. US firms would quickly establish a foothold in providing private healthcare in the UK but this would undermine the NHS and will be unpopular with the public especially if it drives us towards full privatisation.

3. The US will insist on an Investor-State-Dispute-Settlement mechanism where businesses have the right of appeal to a supranational court if their profits could be harmed by regulations the UK government brings in. This could be quite significant if there's a campaign to bring in a regulation on public health or environmental grounds, eg if US firms were selling something which was found to be causing harm and we raised our standards to prohibit it, the firms could then sue the UK taxpayer for compensation of loss of profits. Now Brexit was supposed to be about reasserting democratic control and not being subject to the European Court of Justice, but standard trade deals these days, especially ones that come from the US, involve these sort of ISDS arrangements with a supranational court to decide. The problem when the US is drafting the trade deals is the terms are written very much in favour of the large multinationals and against the rights of a democratically elected government to have freedom over its own laws. The usual format is - "you have the freedom to bring in your laws, but if they lead to a loss of profits for our firms, your taxpayer has to pay the difference in compensation".

These issues make a UK-US trade deal difficult to complete. What may happen, if the Conservatives hold on for long enough, is the Conservative government rushing through a trade deal with the US on their terms, even if it is all stacked in the US favour, because they generally like the idea of locking in low standards and deregulation, or privatisation, in an external trade arrangement so it blocks any future democratically elected Labour government from being able to increase standards or reverse NHS privatisation.

But this kind of thing is not taking back control and strengthening British democracy and we shouldn't be naive that that was the plan with Brexit.
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shawn_o1
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What about our good old friend "WTO rules"? It served Australia and New Zealand pretty well did it not?
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Whiskey&Freedom
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The Conservatives will deliver free trade deals that will turn Britain into the economic powerhouse it use to be. We don't need European countries when we have China and Saudi Arabia waiting for us to be feee of the shackles of the Eu.

The EU and foreign migrants have held this country back for too long.
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shawn_o1
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Oh and the EU would pour scorn on us for licking the arses of countries with "poor human rights". Pot Kettle Black. The EU is destroying the human right to identity by insisting that all difference be removed except for that of wealth.
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Quady
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(Original post by ThomH97)
It is interesting that the EU has been able to overcome its insistence that free trade must be accompanied by freedom of movement with its deal with Japan.
Not a free trade deal?
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Quady
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(Original post by Whiskey&Freedom)
The Conservatives will deliver free trade deals that will turn Britain into the economic powerhouse it use to be. We don't need European countries when we have China and Saudi Arabia waiting for us to be feee of the shackles of the Eu.

The EU and foreign migrants have held this country back for too long.
Why would we want a free trade deal?

A free trade deal with China just means they'll continue to dump cheap produce on us killing us with a massive balace of payments deficit.
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ThomH97
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(Original post by Quady)
Not a free trade deal?
Not initially, they don't want surges. But that is the end goal with no mention of movement of people.
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Whiskey&Freedom
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(Original post by Quady)
Why would we want a free trade deal?

A free trade deal with China just means they'll continue to dump cheap produce on us killing us with a massive balace of payments deficit.
Someone who hates the free market I see. Typical socialist.
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Quady
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(Original post by Whiskey&Freedom)
Someone who hates the free market I see. Typical socialist.
Yeah, the free market would've stopped cashpoints nine years ago.

I bet you hate the free market too. A free market means anarchy. Anything other than anarchy is a non-free market economy.

Or are you an anarchist?

I'd rather be social than have anarchy.
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learningmachine
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(Original post by ThomH97)
Lots of countries do want a trade deal with us, but while we are still a member of the EU no other trade deals can be made by just us. It is interesting that the EU has been able to overcome its insistence that free trade must be accompanied by freedom of movement with its deal with Japan.
The recent commentary and reports from within the Government show that all these future trade deals with all these countries rushing to make deals with us wouldn't match the benefits of what we get now within the EU. I suggest a new law that lies can't be included in campaign and if included without any evidence backing odd claims, people involved should be prosecuted. While I see both the benefits and drawbacks of Brexit, I think that every semi-intelligent human being can tell that we, the voters, have been played for fools before the EU referendum.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by shawn_o1)
What about our good old friend "WTO rules"? It served Australia and New Zealand pretty well did it not?
Indeed they do. Australia and New Zealand have lots of raw materials that the world wants and relatively low populations. What they do not have are complex economies that are tightly entwined with neighbouring countries. They don't have a banking sector like London and they don't have complex distributed manufacturers such as the automotive, aerospace or space which see multiple components whizzing around Europe as part of the build process.

I can't help feel that the more we try and compare ourselves to other countries, the more we are pulling the wool over our eyes. Britain is what it is because of its position in Europe. If you take Europe away, we don't suddenly become Australia or Norway. We become Britain without Europe, whatever that looks like.
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The Asian Tory
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(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
Lots of countries would want a trade deal but on their terms, and to conclude one that actually benefits the UK is more difficult, especially when you try to balance off the different groups within the UK that will have concerns about trade deals.

Donald Trump does not like most of the trade deals the US is involved in, he wants a more protectionist approach that will increase the US ability to export to other markets but not open up the US to other countries. So a trade deal between the US and UK would likely be offered very much on their terms.

The US will likely push hard for three things, which will all be controversial in the UK:

1. The UK would have to significantly lower its food standards, so that the US can export the food that is currently not allowed to come in under EU rules because it's genetically modified or has used chlorine to wash the meat or because of the generally much lower animal welfare standards. The UK farming sector will massively oppose this as they will say they will be exposed to being undercut by cheap low-quality food coming in from the US and they won't be able to compete unless they quickly adopt the large scale, low cost, low animal-welfare processing techniques that the Americans do. It will also be opposed by environmentalists and animal welfare groups as well as people campaigning for public health and food standards protections.

2. The UK would need to open up its public sector procurement rules including the NHS to competition from US providers. US firms would want the right to legally bid for the right to deliver health contracts and prohibit the UK from having rules keeping it in government control. US firms would quickly establish a foothold in providing private healthcare in the UK but this would undermine the NHS and will be unpopular with the public especially if it drives us towards full privatisation.

3. The US will insist on an Investor-State-Dispute-Settlement mechanism where businesses have the right of appeal to a supranational court if their profits could be harmed by regulations the UK government brings in. This could be quite significant if there's a campaign to bring in a regulation on public health or environmental grounds, eg if US firms were selling something which was found to be causing harm and we raised our standards to prohibit it, the firms could then sue the UK taxpayer for compensation of loss of profits. Now Brexit was supposed to be about reasserting democratic control and not being subject to the European Court of Justice, but standard trade deals these days, especially ones that come from the US, involve these sort of ISDS arrangements with a supranational court to decide. The problem when the US is drafting the trade deals is the terms are written very much in favour of the large multinationals and against the rights of a democratically elected government to have freedom over its own laws. The usual format is - "you have the freedom to bring in your laws, but if they lead to a loss of profits for our firms, your taxpayer has to pay the difference in compensation".

These issues make a UK-US trade deal difficult to complete. What may happen, if the Conservatives hold on for long enough, is the Conservative government rushing through a trade deal with the US on their terms, even if it is all stacked in the US favour, because they generally like the idea of locking in low standards and deregulation, or privatisation, in an external trade arrangement so it blocks any future democratically elected Labour government from being able to increase standards or reverse NHS privatisation.

But this kind of thing is not taking back control and strengthening British democracy and we shouldn't be naive that that was the plan with Brexit.
You forgot to mention the weighting of non EU countries trade is much less than EU trade as geographically close and countries of similar prosperity tend to trade more (gravity model). Not only that but, free trade with some countries would not create enough or any significant impact on our export markets thus economic growth rate and the affect of disrupted inter-country EU supply lines.
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FarhanHalim
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Nothing is going to replace the benefits we get from the EU, I'll tell you that
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MagicNMedicine
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(Original post by Whiskey&Freedom)
Someone who hates the free market I see. Typical socialist.
Do you believe that firms should have the freedom to hire whoever they want, from whatever country, or do you believe civil servants should draw up rules for who can and can't come in the country?
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r3035
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(Original post by richard10012)
Liam Fox is struggling to make recover the losses if we don't get a good deal from Euro. I thought now we are leaving lots of countries would want a trade deal.
We already trade more with the rest of the world.

So does the EU.

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r3035
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(Original post by The Asian Tory)
You forgot to mention the weighting of non EU countries trade is much less than EU trade as geographically close and countries of similar prosperity tend to trade more (gravity model). Not only that but, free trade with some countries would not create enough or any significant impact on our export markets thus economic growth rate and the affect of disrupted inter-country EU supply lines.
The geographical distance is irrelevant.

We trade with China and the USA.

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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
Lots of countries would want a trade deal but on their terms, and to conclude one that actually benefits the UK is more difficult,
Give me an example of a trade deal that would be bad for the UK?
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