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Who should lead the Tory Party after May? Watch

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    (Original post by Reformed2010)
    She comes across very well in interviews and debates. But her political views and voting record would betray her. How on earth is she going to win over a majority people under 35 when she voted against same-sex marriage (!!), supports the death penalty and the tobacco industry? She'd need a major PR spin job. Conservative leader maybe but I can't see her current views winning a Tory majority.
    I'm cool with all that, plus the vast majority of under 35s vote Labour no matter what even under Cameron and same for Ruth in Scotland (youth voted Labour & SNP despite their gains).
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    Well in all honesty I feel that if things continue as they are I believe will happen then it will make no difference whether the next leadership election is in 4 months or 4 years but the Conservatives will realise very soon (i.e. in a few months) that if/when Theresa May steps down they will be likely to be stuck with only one possible candidate and that would be - Jacob Rees-Mog.

    I actually have 10 reasons for this which is so long that I will write it up as a blog post so not to bore everyone here with an even long essay than this will be as it is. But the fundamental reasoning is that the rest of the cabinet is toxic. Yes, he might not be 100% popular but he has some popularity and he seems to be popular with some unlikely people. Which is more than what can be said for the whole cabinet probably put together and the party really needs to change their image into more something more favourable if they are ever to win the next election.

    Moreover, he has already helped the Conservative's image. How many people here can you see are big JRM fans. They may be Conservative voters already or not many not. Even so of those people how many would openly say that they are JRM fans? And how many would openly say that they support the Conservatives? Despite being one of the same thing he has made people feel that they say the former but not the latter.

    What really was his turning point was when he was on 'Question Time' two weeks ago. Practically overnight his odds when from 16/1 to 10/1 (some now as low as 8/1). I looked on Facebook the next day and there were even some clear Labour voters speaking positively of him.
    What was most interesting it is how this episode differed from previous episodes. When he said after the election the party can't go on "as business as usual" and they should learn from this election. It seems like he has gone onto social media and listened to call in radio shows and then reacted to every criticism which he has heard. The result from social media really shows that it worked!
    In fact I am writing a blog post on this too. An exampls is when he got asked a question in 2015 in a cross party election debate and an almost identical one 2 weeks ago during this episode and answered it completely differently. 2015 he was nearly booed and 2017 he was well received.
    This is what he does very well - He listens. Watch his videos for Channel 4 news from 2014(ish).

    I know there will be 2 criticisms: 1) he had no experience in government and 2) his voting record. I partly agree but these are also 2 criticisms of Corbyn too. And this is the person the next leader will be up against so it kind of even ground.
    To add, regarding his voting record the people who would be most offended would be those who would never vote anything but Labour anyway, and also his gay marriage opinions would be treated much like Corbyn's anti-Monarchy opinion. He will know he is in the minority and will say that although it is his personal opinion it will never be added to the manifesto. Plus, as Ian Hislop said he "can do the diplomacy thing".
    As for the rest of his voting history that will probably be no different to any other Tory MP and he would do a good job at explaining his reasoning.

    I am sure many will think he can't reach beyond the party but you are a) welcome to read my blog post on www.thepoliticalearthquake.wordpress.com (entitled: "Can Jacob Rees-Long really win over Labour voters?" where I put a collection of posts on Facebook together or b) the perfect political example - Mhairi Black.
    She is a very young SNP MP who is anti-austerity, pro-EU, pro-Scottish Independence and a lesbian. So the absolute polar opposite to JRM yet she is fan and in the vote last week for the Chairman of the Select Committee in the Treasury (which was described as the battle of Leavers vs the Remainers) she publicly backed JRM over Nicky Morgan. So if she can be won over and vote for him in anything Parliamentary others might too.

    Unfortunately how I see it is that anyone else would be seen as connected to the current government would be tainted due to everything going on and none of them will attract anyone at all. He is basically to me the only one who can press the rezet button on the party and start a fresh.

    And yes, he might not want to be PM but there are 3 things I would note for this too. Firstly, we don't know this. To me as he has said from the beginning that he has always known that will be never offered a cabinet position, this talk might be the political equivillent to someone saying they didn't want to go to the party but more because they weren't invited. Secondly, if things continue as they are he is as popular he might find himself persuaded due to popular support. And c) I am wondering if he is interested but being clever and discrete about it. Think about 'Question Time' again and all his interviews since the election and his message has been much the same: I support Theresa May and the government 100%.... but if I were PM this is what I would do. On QT and the Queen's Speech debate he has made a big deal about how he would finance housing and redistribute the budget. His speech at the Queen's Speech debate even sounded a bit Churchill like with his "no matter how vast the problem..." part.
    Not to mention that he will be on the Sophie Ridge show on Sky this Sunday. He won't be talking about Brexit specifically like he has done recently but sharing his opinions of lots of things because of the 'Mogglebox' I think it is called (sorry not something I am familar with). Perhaps I am reading into this but if you were eyeing up the Premiership all while helping and supporting the government this is definitely how I would go about it.

    Finally, he is still pretty much an unknown politician to many. To me he is the political equivillent of Susan Boyle. Everyone laughed when she came on stage but then she sang.
    I am sure that many who are fans like myself will reflect our first image of him, but we follow politics closer than most so have got to know him. He is not the sort of politician I would like but I grew to love him very quickly.
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    (Original post by ScottishBrexitor)
    I'm cool with all that, plus the vast majority of under 35s vote Labour no matter what even under Cameron and same for Ruth in Scotland (youth voted Labour & SNP despite their gains).
    According to the evidence, it's not you who change your political views it's the newer and younger generation who are more socially liberal than you. Who then make your views seem more socially conservative. So because the Conservative Party is naturally socially more Conservative, it will attract more older people and Labour is naturally more socially liberal, it will attract more younger people.

    Put it this way, today's 18 - 30 are pro same-sex marriage, passionate about tackling climate change and support human rights etc. In 10 years time, when they are 28 - 40 they are not going to be against same-sex marriage, they will still support it. So then, I don't see how they will want to vote for a party led by someone who voted against it and many other things they disagreed with when they were younger.

    The Conservatives are already losing the social liberal ground, If I was a Tory strategist I would not be wanting an MP who is right-wing even for today to become leader in 5 or 10 years time. They will be seen by people under 40s even more right-wing. It's very risky because it relies on a lot of factors, like the youth vote not turning out and the economy doing well.
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    (Original post by Trapz99)
    Boris
    If the Tories chose Boris Johnson this country would be in serious trouble. I hope that this never happens.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    Heidi Allen, Johnny Mercer, James Cleverly etc are all decent, but not really ready for it. If I had to pick from the Government, it'd be Sajid Javid, Damian Green or Rory Stewart.
    As others have said I've no idea why Heidi Allen is in the Tory party seemingly she complains bitterly about policies before following the whip.

    Mercer is a Tory equivalent Of Jarvis-style over substance

    I really dont see Javid winning and I don't particularly rate him.

    I imagine Rory Stewart would be Theresa May MK II
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    In any case I reckon the Tories need a fresh start and thus Mays replacement needs to be a backbencher

    I'd rate in particular Jesse Norman and Adam Afriyae. I also think Dan Hannan should be given a seat and a chance to sell capitalism rather than lesser socialism which is what May offered.
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    While I personally support Corbyn, I would like JRM to lead the Tories. We need a proper brexiteer and rational thinker who knows what he is talking about
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    As others have said I've no idea why Heidi Allen is in the Tory party seemingly she complains bitterly about policies
    Policies that a lot of Conservatives have trouble with too. The public sector pay cap was accepted by Conservatives because it was the right policy for the time: after being in place for many years and with inflation rising, many want the Government to look at it again and at least hold out some hope that it isn't going to go on for the entire length of the this parliament.

    Things like tax credit cuts are similar. From the perspective of many Conservatives, people on working tax credits are the salt of the earth: in work, poor and hoping for a bit more to take home - they're not unemployed, not drug addicts and not layabouts. The problem with tax credits has always been that few are particularly happy to see them lowered, but there is a fiduciary duty there. As even the last Labour chancellor acknowledged, up-take (and spending) went far beyond what was expected.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    Policies that a lot of Conservatives have trouble with too. The public sector pay cap was accepted by Conservatives because it was the right policy for the time: after being in place for many years and with inflation rising, many want the Government to look at it again and at least hold out some hope that it isn't going to go on for the entire length of the this parliament.

    Things like tax credit cuts are similar. From the perspective of many Conservatives, people on working tax credits are the salt of the earth: in work, poor and hoping for a bit more to take home - they're not unemployed, not drug addicts and not layabouts. The problem with tax credits has always been that few are particularly happy to see them lowered, but there is a fiduciary duty there. As even the last Labour chancellor acknowledged, up-take (and spending) went far beyond what was expected.
    That's all well and good but it seems to me to be financially irresponsible to be adding to an already colossal deficit and ethically wrong to pass down our debt whilst also essentially subsidising taxpayers money on businesses not paying proper wages (with a caveat here for certain groups E.G. The disabled)

    Surely there are others measures the party could introduce which would be better at addressing the needs of the poor:

    E.g. Mass housebuilding
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    (Original post by George32)
    If a Tory leadership election took place tomorrow, David Davis would supposedly be the frontrunner: over BJ, Rudd, and Hammond.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...eadership-bid/

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...id-theresa-may

    Assuming May isn't PM for the full duration of the Conservatives' next term in govt - obvs :colonhash: - who d'you think should lead the Party? Who'd be best to lead, and why?

    Personally, I'd favour Rudd over BJ, Davis, and Hammond. Though I'd much prefer a Tory Party led by Ruth Davidson tbh: I'd support a more liberal view for the party, being in-touch and I'm sure she'd receive support from many Tories across Britain. She secured 13 seats in Scotland and would change up May's current frontbench.
    Generally speaking i am an anybody but Boris Tory. He appears to have no ideological roots (May at least appears to have genuine One Nation instincts) and his performance as Mayor was unexceptional, as have been his other roles. He'd be a good chairman of the party and he's a good person to put in front of the camera but he'd be an unexceptional PM and i have seen no evidence that he has any long term strategy for the nation.

    In terms of the next leader i think that Crabb is very impressive, i think that Rudd has impressed and i think that Rory Stewart is one to watch.

    With all that being said, if i was going to the bookies today.. Jacob Reese Mogg. I don't quite understand his wider appeal nor think his social positions are much good but he's clearly developing a large fan base, is a fantastic orator and is genuine. I'd not vote for him myself but it's hard to see who could stop him were a contest held today. The bookies now make him second favourate behind David Davis.

    *This assumes that Ruth Davidson does not become MP for Maidenhead and get a corination. As a proven winner i'd support her in order to decapitate the left.
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    tbh after May it should be June, then July and August
 
 
 
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