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How much will we pay the EU to leave?

This poll is closed

How much will the UK pay to leave the EU?

Less than £10 billion 12%
£10 - £30bn 0%
£30 - £50bn 16%
£50 - £70bn 48%
£70 - £90bn 8%
More than £90bn 0%
Nothing - the talks will collapse16%
Total votes: 25
News stories circulating during the last few days saying that Theresa May has already secretly agreed with the EU Commission that £50bn will be handed over. This has now been (unsurprisingly) denied by the government, but perhaps there's more than just a rumour to it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/03/david-davis-denies-theresa-may-will-agree-50bn-brexit-divorce-bill

The money is made up of the next couple of year's contributions, commitments the UK made to various EU bodies and organisations and the funding of things like Commission pensions that the member states agree to underwrite when they join.

My guess is that the final figure will be less than £50bn - I think something like £35bn is plausible - but of course it's also possible that both sides will get totally stuck at this stage of the negotiations and they will break off talks with no agreement - leaving a hard Brexit, with no customs (and vast queues at airports and terminals) and no money being paid (with abrupt cancellation of all Euro-projects and cooperations and unknown dramatic effects on UK residents in Europe and EU residents in the UK) - I personally think this could happen.

The results will be catastrophic if it does. What do you think? Will we end up paying a fee to leave? If so, how large will it be?

Scroll to see replies

I thought they were going to pay us to leave.
We're not paying to leave since these are obligations we would have either way. I suspect somewhere in the £50bn region. Refusing to properly engage with the question like Fox, Davis and many of the other Brexiters is damaging Britain's standing on the global stage and is seriously damaging the potential we have for getting further trade deals with non-EU countries.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
News stories circulating during the last few days saying that Theresa May has already secretly agreed with the EU Commission that £50bn will be handed over. This has now been (unsurprisingly) denied by the government, but perhaps there's more than just a rumour to it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/03/david-davis-denies-theresa-may-will-agree-50bn-brexit-divorce-bill

The money is made up of the next couple of year's contributions, commitments the UK made to various EU bodies and organisations and the funding of things like Commission pensions that the member states agree to underwrite when they join.

My guess is that the final figure will be less than £50bn - I think something like £35bn is plausible - but of course it's also possible that both sides will get totally stuck at this stage of the negotiations and they will break off talks with no agreement - leaving a hard Brexit, with no customs (and vast queues at airports and terminals) and no money being paid (with abrupt cancellation of all Euro-projects and cooperations and unknown dramatic effects on UK residents in Europe and EU residents in the UK) - I personally think this could happen.

The results will be catastrophic if it does. What do you think? Will we end up paying a fee to leave? If so, how large will it be?



Another day another Brexit thread . Yaaaaawwwwwwwwnnnnnnnn
Original post by Ambitious1999
Another day another Brexit thread . Yaaaaawwwwwwwwnnnnnnnn


Let's try to stay focused people.
Original post by TheDefiniteArticle
We're not paying to leave since these are obligations we would have either way. I suspect somewhere in the £50bn region. Refusing to properly engage with the question like Fox, Davis and many of the other Brexiters is damaging Britain's standing on the global stage and is seriously damaging the potential we have for getting further trade deals with non-EU countries.


Agreed, but I can't help also agreeing with those who argue this shouldn't just be a negotiation with the Commission, since they have a huge vested interest in feathering their own nest. The national governments ought to be involved.

We also need a proper audit of EU budgets going back some years, we are due refunds for various things - not least the colossal amounts that the Commission wasted by channelling funds to the mafia, etc.
Original post by ChaoticButterfly
I thought they were going to pay us to leave.


I didn't put that as a polling option. It's probably the case if there is a hard Brexit caused by their hardball attitude, since that would damage EU national and citizen interests across large parts of Europe as much as it would the UK.
Why do we need to pay to leave?
Original post by Fullofsurprises
I didn't put that as a polling option. It's probably the case if there is a hard Brexit caused by their hardball attitude, since that would damage EU national and citizen interests across large parts of Europe as much as it would the UK.


I demand my millions promised by Leave :fuhrer:
ECJ said it: there's no legal basis for a "divorce bill".
Reply 10
Avatar for PolPot
PolPot
9
We should pay nothing.

If they ask for anything just sell off their debt at low prices to pay for it they will love that!

Lets be honest Theresa May is a weak leader, Davis is a very smart guy but I don't think he will last as I don't see him compromising with the EU. May will believe anything anyone throws at her she will back down like she did in the London riots.

So the chances are we will end up paying them billions, not because we should (Really shouldn't) but because May will back down.
Original post by shawn_o1
ECJ said it: there's no legal basis for a "divorce bill".


But there is one for us to continue paying our existing obligations. That's why this isn't a 'divorce bill'.
Original post by num.7
Why do we need to pay to leave?


It's down to what commitments the UK made in treaties.

So for example it takes at least two years to leave after we invoked Article 50. Therefore that is at least two year's payments. Then there are loads of other things. (See my original post for more details.)

There's a good longer explanation of it at this article.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/eu-divorce-bill

I don't remember this being discussed much in the referendum campaign. Nigel Farage and Michael Gove and Boris Johnson and John Redwood just glossed over it when they were asked about it. Yet here we are facing a very large reduction in public spending which will be caused by this.

This is another thing that invalidates the referendum - for a referendum to be fair, all major issues must be raised and properly addressed by both sides. The Brexiteers simply refused to treat it as a real threat.
Original post by Fullofsurprises


This is another thing that invalidates the referendum - for a referendum to be fair, all major issues must be raised and properly addressed by both sides. The Brexiteers simply refused to treat it as a real threat.


It was brought up by the Remain side. If this is a problem then it invalidates parliamentary democracy as that suffers from the same dishonest political tactics.

That barometer for fairness is impossible to meet. Ignoring the referendum result would have major negative implications for the confidence in UK democracy. If we are to rejoin the EU it has to at least come from some other vote whether its another referendum or another general election. This still wouldn't mitigate a sense of betrayal of democracy as it would just be interpreted as asking the same question until the public give the correct answer, just like what happened in Ireland when they had a referendum regarding the EU.

Basically David Cameron got us in this mess by having the referendum for internal party political reasons and we have to live with the consequences. We can only ever get back in the EU if we wait at least a generation when we can say the conditions have been changed, not to mention the population may in general be more favourable to the EU then.
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by num.7
Why do we need to pay to leave?


This question comes up often and needs to be answered. As member of the EU, you commit to an EU budget which usually spans 4 years in the future. This consists of projects of benefit to the UK and other EU nations and costs related to UK MEPs and conducting parliamentary activities. The UK willingly signed up to many such projects whilst a member of the EU. Now that it is leaving, it would have to pay off what it has committed to.

It isn't a bill for leaving, it's the recovery of funds for what was promised (willingly).
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by shawn_o1
ECJ said it: there's no legal basis for a "divorce bill".


But it's not a divorce bill, that's just what the press have called it to give it a negative connotation. It's really just paying the obligations that Britain committed to while still part of the EU.

If anything, Britain will not pay a single lump sum on 1 March 2019. In the end they will keep paying as committed, over time.
How can anyone guess what it will be when not even the people sitting at the negotiating table have settled on what ought to be part of it or left out? Picking an arbitrary figure out of thin air is not going to help any, if we go in with that attitude we'll get nothing but resistance.
Some commentators talk of about 30 billion but who knows at this point.

How much of that bill will be our membership while we are still in the eu too?
TBH I don't think we should have to pay anything except their legal fees since it was kind of our decision to leave in the first place
Remoaners gonna remoan.

Speculation is pointless at this juncture as the two sides haven't even agreed to discuss this yet.

We should pay nothing and not accede to their ridiculous procedural demands. Of course we won't.

We wrote the constitutions of much of the world for when they became independent of us, and now we can't even properly negotiate departure from a free trade area. Pathetic.

Our political class and civil service are pygmies compared to their predecessors.

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