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Who should replace TM as leader of the Tories? Watch

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  • View Poll Results: Who should be Conservative leader in 2018/19?
    Theresa May (or Amber Rudd)
    9
    11.84%
    Boris Johnson
    20
    26.32%
    Other (please state)
    47
    61.84%

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    (Original post by Davij038)
    I’m not so sure. I think if he did a speaking tour around schools and campuses he might prove to be a hit. He can offer his own explanations about young people issues such as housing, jobs etc. Young people I think will still favour Corbyn but not as strongly as you make out perhaps 65/35 in his favour.
    I just can't see it. The young tend to be liberal and economically left of centre. The big issues facing them are housing, job security, pay etc. I can't see why they'd be attracted to a socially conservative Thatcherite. That's before we mention the fact that the young tend to dislike Brexit a lot and Mogg is a firm Eurosceptic.

    Someone like Ruth Davidson who's charismatic, liberal, pro EU would have a good chance of making inroads with the youth vote. Someone like Mogg and I think the Tories will go backwards.

    The whole debate in the country is shifting, it really is. Just today I was reading an article in the Financial Times talking about how capitalism needs to reform itself to survive. You just could not imagine people even considering that as a possibility a few years ago, never mind debating it seriously.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    I just can't see it. The young tend to be liberal and economically left of centre. The big issues facing them are housing, job security, pay etc. I can't see why they'd be attracted to a socially conservative Thatcherite. That's before we mention the fact that the young tend to dislike Brexit a lot and Mogg is a firm Eurosceptic.

    Someone like Ruth Davidson who's charismatic, liberal, pro EU would have a good chance of making inroads with the youth vote. Someone like Mogg and I think the Tories will go backwards.

    The whole debate in the country is shifting, it really is. Just today I was reading an article in the Financial Times talking about how capitalism needs to reform itself to survive. You just could not imagine people even considering that as a possibility a few years ago, never mind debating it seriously.
    Meh. Not necessarily l. Eg: The front nationals won about 44% of the youth vote in France https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.ind...291.html%3Famp


    As for capitalism reforming, this pretty much sums it up in my opinion:

    https://unherd.com/the-feed-blog/cap...s-time-either/
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Meh. Not necessarily l. Eg: The front nationals won about 44% of the youth vote in France https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.ind...291.html%3Famp


    As for capitalism reforming, this pretty much sums it up in my opinion:

    https://unherd.com/the-feed-blog/cap...s-time-either/
    Le Pen is actually economically leftist, which is why she appeals to the young vote, especially with high unemployment. I can't see a Thatcherite doing the same.

    Plus French politics is very different to ours generally.

    Like him or loathe him, you can't argue Corbyn hasn't shifted the debate. Things are being discussed now which only a few years ago would never have been.
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    Well I'm not a big fan of either personally though I'm not sure if many at the moment are. That being said I think I'd prefer May over Johnson, but it really is a case in terms of those two as a lesser of two evils.

    A big problem for May is that she has hardly any political allies so that really doesn't help her, I don't actually have an answer to the question of who I think should replace her but I really don't think it should be Boris.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Who (if anyone) should replace Theresa May as leader of the Conservative party?

    Boris or someone else?

    Disclaimer

    Ruth Davidson, David Davis and Jacob Rees Mogg are all ineligible/ uninterested in becoming leader. ( I think Ruth would back May as would probably Davis where’s Mogg would back Boris) if you disagree with me put other.

    I think May has generally been a disaster. I don’t particularly think Boris is suitable but god help me I think I’d choose him over May. That said ideally I’d like to see a newish (2010 onwards) to step forward with some more radical proposals on house building and cutting immigration.
    Davidson would be a solid bet for me (subject to accepting leaving the single market) because she's essentially a proven winner and is sharp in debate. She'd chew Corbyn up in PMQ's and crap him back out.

    Since we can't have her right now i would say that Amber Rudd, Steven Crabb and Jacob Reece Mogg are those i would consider albeit i know nothing of Rudd's economics and would be concerned were she not to accept leaving the single market, Crabb is a populist but has something about him though i'm concerned he would not commit to eradicating the deficit and Mogg lacks the narrative we want albeit he appeals on non-social issues to me a lot.

    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The Conservatives have a massive problem with the youth. Among 18-24 year olds Labour have a lead of over 50%. In fact the age at which more people start voting Tory than Labour isn't until 47.

    I can't see what Mogg would do to address that.
    You have made this point a number of times and i still feel that you miss the point. Mogg's social views may put off those at the margins but a lot of that 30-50 group would find an ambitious policy platform quite appealing if he tackled the right issues. Mogg for example has actually stated that he would expand social housing significantly (QT July) so he clearly see's housing as an issue.

    He's not my first preference but i think those dispelling him are overestimating how loyal centrists and the middle aged are quite significantly. Politics is in flux.
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    Not sure why Amber Rudd is grouped in with Theresa May in the poll like they are the same person...

    I'm not sure I believe Jacob Rees-Mogg is uninterested in the leadership. Were he to be considered a serious candidate I am sure he would put himself forward for it. I certainly don't believe David Davis is uninterested, despite the public comments he might make.

    Ruth Davidson wants to be First Minister of Scotland, not UK PM – an understandable ambition for a Scottish politician in the devolution age. I don't think she has a hope in hell of becoming FM, but that's beside the point to an extent.

    I'm not sure if Gavin Williamson is still being talked about as a future leader (though mybe not for tomorrow or next week) – he's not well known publicly but has a somewhat interesting background and a northern accent and is well connected. I can't claim to know much about his politics though.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Davidson would be a solid bet for me (subject to accepting leaving the single market) because she's essentially a proven winner and is sharp in debate. She'd chew Corbyn up in PMQ's and crap him back out.

    Since we can't have her right now i would say that Amber Rudd, Steven Crabb and Jacob Reece Mogg are those i would consider albeit i know nothing of Rudd's economics and would be concerned were she not to accept leaving the single market, Crabb is a populist but has something about him though i'm concerned he would not commit to eradicating the deficit and Mogg lacks the narrative we want albeit he appeals on non-social issues to me a lot.



    You have made this point a number of times and i still feel that you miss the point. Mogg's social views may put off those at the margins but a lot of that 30-50 group would find an ambitious policy platform quite appealing if he tackled the right issues. Mogg for example has actually stated that he would expand social housing significantly (QT July) so he clearly see's housing as an issue.

    He's not my first preference but i think those dispelling him are overestimating how loyal centrists and the middle aged are quite significantly. Politics is in flux.
    Crabb and Rudd have a good chance of losing their seats next time.

    I really think you overestimate Mogg. He's toxic to younger voters. Where is he going to get the money for this housebuilding project given he's against public spending? Why would 30-50 year olds prefer Mogg to Corbyn? Anymore so than they did May to Corbyn.
    Do not underestimate the Tories problem with young voters. You did last time and that's why you were so shocked at the result.
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    Prescott
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Crabb and Rudd have a good chance of losing their seats next time.
    Though they can easily be found a safer seat if need be, especially Amber Rudd, who hasn't exactly made Hastings a part of her political identity like Stephen Crabb has with West Wales.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Why would there be another election next year? That would take voter fatigue to the max given it's 4 major votes in as many years, two of which being completely unnecessary.
    Do you think May was happy with this years election results. There is a high chance that she will want another shot at it to get the target number of votes
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    (Original post by NBingham)
    Do you think May was happy with this years election results. There is a high chance that she will want another shot at it to get the target number of votes
    No, but you don't call an election through choice when level wit/slightly behind in the polls, especially when boundaries are against you, you call an early election when it looks like you're going to win nicely, hence elections were early in 83, 87, 01, 05, and 17 but not 92, 97, or 10
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Le Pen is actually economically leftist, which is why she appeals to the young
    She is but she’s also very right wing on issues such as immigration.



    Also, as for Rudd- every Leader has retained heir seat with an increased majority. I do t think she’s that vulnerable.



    Like him or loathe him, you can't argue Corbyn hasn't shifted the debate. Things are being discussed now which only a few years ago would never have been.
    No, but ultimately that’s not his job. His job is to become prime minister, which he is still despite how atrocious the Tories are doing not capitalising on.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Who (if anyone) should replace Theresa May as leader of the Conservative party?

    Boris or someone else?

    Disclaimer

    Ruth Davidson, David Davis and Jacob Rees Mogg are all ineligible/ uninterested in becoming leader. ( I think Ruth would back May as would probably Davis where’s Mogg would back Boris) if you disagree with me put other.


    I think May has generally been a disaster. I don’t particularly think Boris is suitable but god help me I think I’d choose him over May. That said ideally I’d like to see a newish (2010 onwards) to step forward with some more radical proposals on house building and cutting immigration.
    Keep her in charge to allow Jezza to rack up a stonking majority. Maybe then some of us will be paid properly...


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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Le Pen is actually economically leftist, which is why she appeals to the young vote, especially with high unemployment. I can't see a Thatcherite doing the same.

    Plus French politics is very different to ours generally.

    Like him or loathe him, you can't argue Corbyn hasn't shifted the debate. Things are being discussed now which only a few years ago would never have been.
    Corbyn's positions have popular support and he goes around the country making people know. More simple than that though he seems at ease with the public unlike Mrs May who seems extremely uncomfortable around anyone other than politicians. Rees-Mogg is much less so though his fundamentalist social views may be a downer.


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    (Original post by Davij038)



    Also, as for Rudd- every Leader has retained heir seat with an increased majority. I do t think she’s that vulnerable.




    Always time for a first.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    She is but she’s also very right wing on issues such as immigration.



    Also, as for Rudd- every Leader has retained heir seat with an increased majority. I do t think she’s that vulnerable.





    No, but ultimately that’s not his job. His job is to become prime minister, which he is still despite how atrocious the Tories are doing not capitalising on.
    She probably would retain her seat. But the fact it's not agiven is an issue in itself, because it means they'd need to focus a lot of campaigning and would inevitably face a lot of media attention in Hastings rather than being able to concentrate solely on the national picture. Just think for instance how much less effective Corbyn's campaign would've been if he'd had to constantly trot back to Islington to defend his own seat and the media, Twitter etc was covering that rather than his national campaign.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    She is but she’s also very right wing on issues such as immigration.
    France is just completely different to us politically and culturally. I'm not so sure comparisons with them are useful.

    Were JRM to accompany his views on immigration and social policy with left wing economics, then possibly he could have an impact. But coupled with dry Thatcherism? Not so much.


    Also, as for Rudd- every Leader has retained heir seat with an increased majority. I do t think she’s that vulnerable.
    I can't recall any leader defending a majority in their own seat of just 346 before. Most leaders have very safe seats.

    You can't go into an election with a leader who's defending such a small majority in an area of the country in which Labour are becoming increasingly popular. Were Rudd to become leader then you would see a huge campaigning effort to unseat her. The Tories and Rudd would have to spend a huge amount of time just defending her own seat.


    No, but ultimately that’s not his job. His job is to become prime minister, which he is still despite how atrocious the Tories are doing not capitalising on.
    It's easy to forget how much has already changed in such a short space of time. Labour had such a bad election in 2015 that it was going to take any leader two elections to turn it round, even the Blairites were saying that.

    When Corbyn was elected, the Tories were celebrating, claiming it would be the end of Labour. There was even a group encouraging Tories to sign up to Labour to vote for Corbyn. He was seen as having no chance of ever becoming Prime Minister. Only a few months ago, May was regarded as one of the most popular Prime Minister's ever. The notion that Corbyn could ever be Prime Minister seemed utterly absurd half a year ago. Now it seems a fairly distinct possibility.

    Part of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister will be his ability to shift the narrative and he is doing so rather successfully at the moment. The consensus that free-market capitalism is always best is no longer so strong. Even papers like the Financial Times and Economist are talking about how we need to reform capitalism, when they have been amongst the staunchest advocates of neoliberalism.

    There are high levels of support for nationalisation of key industries and for lifting the public sector pay cap, not to mention further investment into education and healthcare. Even two thirds of Tory voters support renationalsiing the railways!

    The narrative has shifted and Corbyn is now in a strong position to win the next General Election. That's not to say he will, but the fact we are even talking seriously about the possibility of Corbyn as PM, is rather remarkable.
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    Iirc correctly didn’t Thatcher do better with young people than labour under Foot?


    As for Corbyn as Prime minister. He has done very well and confounded critics but this has been because of the incompetence of the Tories rather than because Corbyn as electoral gold dust. Labours policies are popular no doubt. Theresa May is useless but is still ahead of Corbyn. They like the messages but not the messenger.
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    (Original post by Davij038)
    Iirc correctly didn’t Thatcher do better with young people than labour under Foot?


    As for Corbyn as Prime minister. He has done very well and confounded critics but this has been because of the incompetence of the Tories rather than because Corbyn as electoral gold dust. Labours policies are popular no doubt. Theresa May is useless but is still ahead of Corbyn. They like the messages but not the messenger.
    She did. That's evidence of the big mess the Tories are in now. Thatcher had a lead, the Tories are currently 50% down. Though the times are different now, as are the challenges.

    The people saying May is incompetent now are the same who were heaping praise upon her just a few months ago saying how she was going to wipe Labour out.

    May had a year as PM in which Labour and UKIP were collapsing around her while the press barely scrutinised her at all.
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    (Original post by Saracen's Fez)
    Though they can easily be found a safer seat if need be, especially Amber Rudd, who hasn't exactly made Hastings a part of her political identity like Stephen Crabb has with West Wales.
    That's true but it doesn't exactly look good for the Prime Minister to have to find a new seat because she's worried about losing hers.
 
 
 
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