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Who should replace TM as leader of the Tories? Watch

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  • View Poll Results: Who should be Conservative leader in 2018/19?
    Theresa May (or Amber Rudd)
    9
    11.84%
    Boris Johnson
    20
    26.32%
    Other (please state)
    47
    61.84%

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    (Original post by Davij038)
    ......Jacob Rees Mogg - uninterested in becoming leader. (
    A posh plonker, But a cunning, sneaky plonker. Don't write him off.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    That's true but it doesn't exactly look good for the Prime Minister to have to find a new seat because she's worried about losing hers.
    It's not the end of the world though, and there is always the possibility to have a boundary review (probably keeping 650 seats this time) to create an excuse.

    It's possible even as Home Secretary that she might consider trying to move somewhere else, just to avoid a big Labour campaign to unseat the Home Secretary.
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    There is only one man who is worthy......

    Jacob Rees Mogg
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    (Original post by Saracen's Fez)
    It's not the end of the world though, and there is always the possibility to have a boundary review (probably keeping 650 seats this time) to create an excuse.

    It's possible even as Home Secretary that she might consider trying to move somewhere else, just to avoid a big Labour campaign to unseat the Home Secretary.
    I think that the central parties parachuting favoured individuals into safe seats they have no connection with, is increasingly being looked down upon. I imagine such an attempt would be resisted by the local party.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    That's true but it doesn't exactly look good for the Prime Minister to have to find a new seat because she's worried about losing hers.
    It isn't an issue unless we have an early general election because the boundary review started in 2011 is due to take place before then.

    Anyway I think most people would understand that a PM with a small majority would be targeted by the opposition and so would have to move seats.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    I think that the central parties parachuting favoured individuals into safe seats they have no connection with, is increasingly being looked down upon. I imagine such an attempt would be resisted by the local party.
    This issue is as old as Parliament. Local parties like celebrity MPs. Local parties do not like Central Office apparatchiks.
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    Jeremy Corbyn
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    I don't personally like Theresa May's views on certain policies but I think it's vital for her to stay on with her current job as Prime Minister as we head into the Brexit negotiations. Having a change of leader will make use look weak and damage the prospects of a good negotiation, I think the gamble that the Prime Minister took with calling an early General Election has done some damage. However, she has taken her stride and recover from that. Now, her job is to get her party in line to deal with Brexit and that starts from MPs and members alike supporting her and not rebelling against her leadership. Should someone have to replace her in unforeseen circumstances, I think the only decent candidate to replace her is Philip Hammond because he's not only a decent Tory politician that doesn't boast about whether he can do a better job than May and he absolutely has all it takes to lead the country into the future out of the EU - his role as Chancellor of the Exchequer and formerly as Foreign Secretary has shown that.
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    This Week nicely reminded us last night that in 1963 the Tories made haste and suddenly 'found' a seat for Alex Douglas Hune to com from the Lords. In that context it's still possible that Davidson will be told that her party and country need her and a by-election will be forced (probably by an older member retiring - Ken Clarke for a fellow moderniser perhaps).

    The only real problem with that is whether she'd be prepared to represent a non-Scottish seat and whether she'd be prepared to fight for a small majority Scottish seat albeit one would imagine she'd win given her personal approval.
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    Personally I think the Tories should be looking outside the "old" brigade instead of just having someone there as a stop gap. There are plenty of younger MPs in the Cabinet who couldn't do any worse than May and would be a good long-term bet. Someone like Priti Patel possibly.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    This Week nicely reminded us last night that in 1963 the Tories made haste and suddenly 'found' a seat for Alex Douglas Hune to com from the Lords. In that context it's still possible that Davidson will be told that her party and country need her and a by-election will be forced (probably by an older member retiring - Ken Clarke for a fellow moderniser perhaps).

    The only real problem with that is whether she'd be prepared to represent a non-Scottish seat and whether she'd be prepared to fight for a small majority Scottish seat albeit one would imagine she'd win given her personal approval.
    She could take David Mundell's seat - one could argue he has served his purpose now and the majority in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale is pretty sizeable (close to 20% I think.)
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    This Week nicely reminded us last night that in 1963 the Tories made haste and suddenly 'found' a seat for Alex Douglas Hune to com from the Lords. In that context it's still possible that Davidson will be told that her party and country need her and a by-election will be forced (probably by an older member retiring - Ken Clarke for a fellow moderniser perhaps).

    The only real problem with that is whether she'd be prepared to represent a non-Scottish seat and whether she'd be prepared to fight for a small majority Scottish seat albeit one would imagine she'd win given her personal approval.
    (Original post by Connor27)
    She could take David Mundell's seat - one could argue he has served his purpose now and the majority in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale is pretty sizeable (close to 20% I think.)
    Was going to say similar - heard it suggested that Mundell could be "promoted" to the Lords to free that seat up which should be relatively easy pickings for Davidson, especially with Labour and the SNP almost certainly both standing and taking votes from each other.

    I don't think it'll happen but that's how you'd do it. The problem is I expect you end up with effectively a Soft Brexit vs Hard Brexit leadership contest, and it's the Hard Brexit candidate who'll win with the geriatric Tory membership. Worse, MPs will know this and the messaging for the anti-Davidson camp would be simple - Vote Ruth, Get Boris.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Was going to say similar - heard it suggested that Mundell could be "promoted" to the Lords to free that seat up which should be relatively easy pickings for Davidson, especially with Labour and the SNP almost certainly both standing and taking votes from each other.

    I don't think it'll happen but that's how you'd do it. The problem is I expect you end up with effectively a Soft Brexit vs Hard Brexit leadership contest, and it's the Hard Brexit candidate who'll win with the geriatric Tory membership. Worse, MPs will know this and the messaging for the anti-Davidson camp would be simple - Vote Ruth, Get Boris.
    This perception of the Tory membership all being old people is false - based on statistics released this week our average member's age isn't much higher than Labour's (53 vs 57) and we actually have a higher % of 18-25 year old members compared to Labour.

    This "Tories are all old people" stereotype mainly comes from our voting base - which isn't
    necessarily reflected in the paid up membership.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    It isn't an issue unless we have an early general election because the boundary review started in 2011 is due to take place before then.

    Anyway I think most people would understand that a PM with a small majority would be targeted by the opposition and so would have to move seats.
    It just looks weak for a potential PM to have to leave her marginal seat because she's not confident of keeping it.
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    Onto the topic at hand however; for leader I would love to see a dark horse, Corbynesque candidature from Philip Davies, a man I have great respect for and who I think would do really well - however he has no interest in leaving the backbenches.

    Of likely actual candidates, either Rudd or Hammond, both are competent.
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    (Original post by Connor27)
    This perception of the Tory membership all being old people is false - based on statistics released this week our average member's age isn't much higher than Labour's (53 vs 57) and we actually have a higher % of 18-25 year old members compared to Labour.

    This "Tories are all old people" stereotype mainly comes from our voting base - which isn't
    necessarily reflected in the paid up membership.
    Sources seem to conflict on that - the Bow Group has come up with an average of 72. The lower figure seems to come from a YouGov study, and I'm not sure how they'd go about that reliably. Normally a poll would be weighted based on demographic information, but how can they do that when it's the demographic information they're trying to find out about?

    In any case, even if it was 57 I believe my point still stands. Your average 57 year old Tory activist is likely to be pretty damned Brexitty and would likely err against the likes of Ruth Davidson in a leadership contest. My cynical side remembers that they didn't even let May vs Leadsom go to the members in the end and wonders if that maybe wasn't just about trying to speed things up.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    At least he stood for something and didn't U-turn every time it looked like public opinion was against you. By trying to please everyone, she impresses no one and ends up with very few of the changes in their manifesto being implemented.
    That's quite an accusation to level at May, after one of the key issues with her manifesto was generally deemed to be that it spoke inconvenient truths on how we can fund social care in the future.

    (Original post by Bornblue)
    I just can't see it. The young tend to be liberal and economically left of centre. The big issues facing them are housing, job security, pay etc. I can't see why they'd be attracted to a socially conservative Thatcherite. That's before we mention the fact that the young tend to dislike Brexit a lot and Mogg is a firm Eurosceptic.
    Charisma makes a big difference. Rees-Mogg has that. Not suggesting he's a good idea as PM - in fact, I'd think it'd be ridiculous - but people can very quickly vote against their interests and change their inclinations.

    Making big shifts in electoral dynamics usually means some sort of radical change. Amber Rudd, for example, would be a continuity candidate: she wouldn't really shake things up.
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    I'm certainly not a conservative, but if I was, I'd want somebody like James Cleverly and get him to commit to a massive housebuilding programme, there's a massive market failure in this area due to Thatcherism, Blairism and Cameronism completely cuck-ing out on it. It's amazing how many votes May has managed to shed by ditching the social liberals and BME voters Cameron worked so hard to cultivate in 2015.

    (Original post by L i b)
    That's quite an accusation to level at May, after one of the key issues with her manifesto was generally deemed to be that it spoke inconvenient truths on how we can fund social care in the future.
    And then backtracked in a blind panic mid-election.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Davidson would be a solid bet for me (subject to accepting leaving the single market) because she's essentially a proven winner and is sharp in debate. She'd chew Corbyn up in PMQ's and crap him back out.

    Since we can't have her right now
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    This Week nicely reminded us last night that in 1963 the Tories made haste and suddenly 'found' a seat for Alex Douglas Hune to com from the Lords. In that context it's still possible that Davidson will be told that her party and country need her and a by-election will be forced (probably by an older member retiring - Ken Clarke for a fellow moderniser perhaps).

    The only real problem with that is whether she'd be prepared to represent a non-Scottish seat and whether she'd be prepared to fight for a small majority Scottish seat albeit one would imagine she'd win given her personal approval.
    Nor ever really. She's putting a great deal of store in challenging to be First Minister of Scotland in 2021 - but after that, there are two possible outcomes: she succeeds and has to serve out a four or five year term at least, or she fails and probably becomes a pretty tarnished brand.

    I mean, can you imagine it? Losing an election, standing down from the Scottish Parliament, trying to inch someone out to fight a by-election in Scotland (or, worse for her image, in England) called for entirely tactical reasons against strong opposition by the other parties while carrying on about being party leader, just a year before a UK general election. It'd be crackers - and even if she did want to be PM, there's not really a route open to her to do so.

    (Original post by Connor27)
    She could take David Mundell's seat - one could argue he has served his purpose now and the majority in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale is pretty sizeable (close to 20% I think.)
    Let's not forget Mundell came within 800 votes of losing his seat just two years ago. That majority isn't as stable as it looks.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    Nor ever really. She's putting a great deal of store in challenging to be First Minister of Scotland in 2021 - but after that, there are two possible outcomes: she succeeds and has to serve out a four or five year term at least, or she fails and probably becomes a pretty tarnished brand.

    I mean, can you imagine it? Losing an election, standing down from the Scottish Parliament, trying to inch someone out to fight a by-election in Scotland (or, worse for her image, in England) called for entirely tactical reasons against strong opposition by the other parties while carrying on about being party leader, just a year before a UK general election. It'd be crackers - and even if she did want to be PM, there's not really a route open to her to do so.



    Let's not forget Mundell came within 800 votes of losing his seat just two years ago. That majority isn't as stable as it looks.
    2015 was a high water mark for the SNP, they won't hit those levels of popularity again.
 
 
 
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