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Who should replace TM as leader of the Tories? watch

  • View Poll Results: Who should be Conservative leader in 2018/19?
    Theresa May (or Amber Rudd)
    9
    11.84%
    Boris Johnson
    20
    26.32%
    Other (please state)
    47
    61.84%

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    (Original post by GEM2018)
    I'm certainly not a conservative, but if I was, I'd want somebody like James Cleverly and get him to commit to a massive housebuilding programme, there's a massive market failure in this area due to Thatcherism, Blairism and Cameronism completely cuck-ing out on it. It's amazing how many votes May has managed to shed by ditching the social liberals and BME voters Cameron worked so hard to cultivate in 2015.
    ... and pretty surprising how many she gained appealing to the northern working class. Still, the problem is one of mathematics: they just weren't in the seats that Conservatives could win, even on considerable swings.

    On a side note, I object to the housing situation being called market failure - we're talking about one of the most regulated markets in the economy, and it's that regulation that's holding us back.

    And then backtracked in a blind panic mid-election.
    Well, true enough.
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    (Original post by Connor27)
    2015 was a high water mark for the SNP, they won't hit those levels of popularity again.
    I wouldn't like to bet on that if we get a hard, economically calamitous Brexit. The only thing that would stop them is if Scottish Labour now move to the left after their current leadership contest.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    ... and pretty surprising how many she gained appealing to the northern working class. Still, the problem is one of mathematics: they just weren't in the seats that Conservatives could win, even on considerable swings.

    On a side note, I object to the housing situation being called market failure - we're talking about one of the most regulated markets in the economy, and it's that regulation that's holding us back.
    Not really, her attempt to win over old Labour seats was a very slight success versus the votes she lost in key constituencies, most of the old Labour voting areas remained Labour (pre-election some people were predicting massive losses of seats across the North and Midlands). She managed to win some but this was offset by centre right/centrist liberals being repulsed by hard brexit and her weird rhetoric about citizens of nowhere etc in key seats + higher youth turnout. I think Corbyn managed to hem her in as well because of the Northern working class wanted a Brexit + increased public spending which Corbyn promised. On market failure I kind of agree, the IEA has some interesting ideas about reforms (especially reforming the ridiculous greenbelt) that should increase private sector supply, but the situation is so severe in SE England particularly that the state needs to start building houses in conjunction with private industry asap.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    I wouldn't like to bet on that if we get a hard, economically calamitous Brexit. The only thing that would stop them is if Scottish Labour now move to the left after their current leadership contest.
    I'm not sure about that at all. Most commentators expected nationalist support to increase following the Brexit vote: instead, it went down considerably - and support for a second Scottish referendum nosedived to its core support. People don't like heaping uncertainty on uncertainty.

    Moreover, I think it would be a mistake to assume people in Scotland are particularly wedded to the EU. The SNP itself noticed this, and put up a few balloons around supporting EEA membership instead for an independent Scotland. That sort of thing will only become more pronounced if the UK was outside, and the nationalist case that trade with the rest of the UK would be largely unaffected clearly dies on its arse.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    I'm not sure about that at all. Most commentators expected nationalist support to increase following the Brexit vote: instead, it went down considerably - and support for a second Scottish referendum nosedived to its core support. People don't like heaping uncertainty on uncertainty.

    Moreover, I think it would be a mistake to assume people in Scotland are particularly wedded to the EU. The SNP itself noticed this, and put up a few balloons around supporting EEA membership instead for an independent Scotland. That sort of thing will only become more pronounced if the UK was outside, and the nationalist case that trade with the rest of the UK would be largely unaffected clearly dies on its arse.
    Yeah, I definitely think it was overstated before, and if Brexit turns out to be relatively non-disastrous it won't happen. I just think that if the more dire predictions were to come true there'd certainly be a temptation there for a lot of people if the two main parties weren't willing to backtrack and re-join the single market.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    That's quite an accusation to level at May, after one of the key issues with her manifesto was generally deemed to be that it spoke inconvenient truths on how we can fund social care in the future.
    I liked the policy of not forcing people to sell their homes to afford social care, it was spun as a negative by the media.

    Yet she u-turned on that even before the election. She won the right to have a minority government but is backing out of the manifesto pledges and instead making up new token policies to distract from how she is achieving nothing.

    She's U-turned on reducing the number of MPs, she's backed out of allowing new grammar schools, she's given up on regain our fisheries policy and negotiating a quick EU withdrawal from a place of strength.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    That's quite an accusation to level at May, after one of the key issues with her manifesto was generally deemed to be that it spoke inconvenient truths on how we can fund social care in the future.



    Charisma makes a big difference. Rees-Mogg has that. Not suggesting he's a good idea as PM - in fact, I'd think it'd be ridiculous - but people can very quickly vote against their interests and change their inclinations.

    Making big shifts in electoral dynamics usually means some sort of radical change. Amber Rudd, for example, would be a continuity candidate: she wouldn't really shake things up.
    I get that Rees Mogg is charismatic and charming but I just can't see him making inroads with the youth vote. Indeed his best hope would be that young voters just don't turn up.

    The reason Corbyn is popular with young voters is not because he's charismatic or even authentic. It's as simple as the fact that he talks about issues which affect young voters, like housing, education and pay.

    You may well think he has the wrong solutions, but he is at least addressing the issues.

    Someone like Ruth Davidson who's modern, pro EU and liberal would do very well as leader. She also seems to 'get it' and has written a few good articles about why capitalism needs to reform etc.

    I don't really get the animosity towards the young by some voters. For years the Tories have secured the vote of the old voting in their own interests but the young aren't allowed to vote in their best interests, for some reason.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Yeah, I definitely think it was overstated before, and if Brexit turns out to be relatively non-disastrous it won't happen. I just think that if the more dire predictions were to come true there'd certainly be a temptation there for a lot of people if the two main parties weren't willing to backtrack and re-join the single market.
    Despite the general consensus, I don't think it matters hugely to Scotland. While London's financial sector is internationalised, the Scottish financial sector is largely focused on the UK market (things like insurance etc, which don't cross borders easily).

    Businesses here have a poor record of exporting in any case (particularly SMEs). Many of our biggest exports, whisky for example, are quite adaptable and have their major markets (and main growth markets) outside of the EU in any case. In terms of foreign direct investment the US tops the chart of sources by a huge margin.

    The SNP were particularly fond of quoting a figure of 80,000 job losses over 10 years from a "hard Brexit". Now, I disagree with the methodology behind all that, but ultimately the question I would really ask is "that few?". After all, since 2010 there have been about 170,000 new jobs created in Scotland.

    I'm sure Brexit has the potential to cause economic harm, but ultimately I think that regardless of how hard it is, the damage in Scotland is small enough that it could be completely ameliorated by using some fairly straightforward domestic policy levers.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    Despite the general consensus, I don't think it matters hugely to Scotland. While London's financial sector is internationalised, the Scottish financial sector is largely focused on the UK market (things like insurance etc, which don't cross borders easily).

    Businesses here have a poor record of exporting in any case (particularly SMEs). Many of our biggest exports, whisky for example, are quite adaptable and have their major markets (and main growth markets) outside of the EU in any case. In terms of foreign direct investment the US tops the chart of sources by a huge margin.

    The SNP were particularly fond of quoting a figure of 80,000 job losses over 10 years from a "hard Brexit". Now, I disagree with the methodology behind all that, but ultimately the question I would really ask is "that few?". After all, since 2010 there have been about 170,000 new jobs created in Scotland.

    I'm sure Brexit has the potential to cause economic harm, but ultimately I think that regardless of how hard it is, the damage in Scotland is small enough that it could be completely ameliorated by using some fairly straightforward domestic policy levers.
    Dare I suggest it would be far from beyond the SNP to try and play silly buggers with the electorate by refusing to use said levers appropriately and rely on them not having the economic knowledge to call them out on it?
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    I get that Rees Mogg is charismatic and charming but I just can't see him making inroads with the youth vote. Indeed his best hope would be that young voters just don't turn up.

    The reason Corbyn is popular with young voters is not because he's charismatic or even authentic. It's as simple as the fact that he talks about issues which effect young voters, like housing, education and pay.

    You may well think he has the wrong solutions, but he is at least addressing the issues.
    A fairly decent case. Well said.

    Someone like Ruth Davidson who's modern, pro EU and liberal would do very well as leader. She also seems to 'get it' and has written a few good articles about why capitalism needs to reform etc.

    I don't really get the animosity towards the young by some voters. For years the Tories have secured the vote of the old voting in their own interests but the young aren't allowed to vote in their best interests, for some reason.
    You're right on that, but there's a dawning realisation that despite some of the tut-tutting by the comfortable, older middle class, the young are going to vote in the way they want and get their priorities on the agenda. All the best to them, I say, but I do think many are going about it the wrong way.That said, the Tories have been the agents of their own misfortune in not talking about these issues.

    I was very drawn to something I read recently which essentially put the question "why should young people support capitalism when they have no capital?". Ever more they're being priced out of owning their own home, setting up businesses, finding a disposable income to invest in shares or whatever.

    There's a lot of truth in that. I look around at people in their late 20s and early 30s: many of them have a string of rented flats behind them as long as your arm, have no opportunity to settle down, don't own very much of significant value, find it difficult to save up for a wedding even - and then have Ian Duncan Smith lecturing them about how terrible it is that young men aren't getting married and creating a stable home any more.

    Little wonder young people aren't overly chuffed with their lot in these circumstances.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Dare I suggest it would be far from beyond the SNP to try and play silly buggers with the electorate by refusing to use said levers appropriately and rely on them not having the economic knowledge to call them out on it?
    The SNP will be back down to pre 2015 number of seats imo after the next election.

    Labour should hopefully be able to capitalise.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The SNP will be back down to pre 2015 number of seats imo after the next election.

    Labour should hopefully be able to capitalise.
    Seriously hoping Leonard wins the leadership. Sarwar is utterly awful.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The SNP will be back down to pre 2015 number of seats imo after the next election.

    Labour should hopefully be able to capitalise.
    That's perhaps a bit optimistic. They have an incumbency effect they've never had before. There are plenty of people in places like Glasgow and Lanarkshire who had decades of having bloated, useless Labour MPs who barely bothered to show their faces in the constituency or campaign ahead of elections.

    For them, it's still a novelty to have an MP that actually does some work and will cushion them from a national swing.

    Labour has admittedly gone some way in making inroads to the nationalist left vote with Corbyn, but it's equally at risk of losing yet more of its traditional unionist vote if it keeps chasing that market. The Tories are being serious contenders in places where they've been scraping along the bottom for decades: a two-way split of the non-SNP vote can let a good few cling on.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Seriously hoping Leonard wins the leadership. Sarwar is utterly awful.
    Yep.

    Scottish politics is unpredictable but i'm hoping that if it seems like Labour actually have a good chance of winning a general election, that former Labour, SNP voters will come back in numbers.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Yep.

    Scottish politics is unpredictable but i'm hoping that if it seems like Labour actually have a good chance of winning a general election, that former Labour, SNP voters will come back in numbers.
    We'll see. There's a risk many will think it doesn't really matter as the SNP would probably work with Labour anyway.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    A fairly decent case. Well said.



    You're right on that, but there's a dawning realisation that despite some of the tut-tutting by the comfortable, older middle class, the young are going to vote in the way they want and get their priorities on the agenda. All the best to them, I say, but I do think many are going about it the wrong way.That said, the Tories have been the agents of their own misfortune in not talking about these issues.

    I was very drawn to something I read recently which essentially put the question "why should young people support capitalism when they have no capital?". Ever more they're being priced out of owning their own home, setting up businesses, finding a disposable income to invest in shares or whatever.

    There's a lot of truth in that. I look around at people in their late 20s and early 30s: many of them have a string of rented flats behind them as long as your arm, have no opportunity to settle down, don't own very much of significant value, find it difficult to save up for a wedding even - and then have Ian Duncan Smith lecturing them about how terrible it is that young men aren't getting married and creating a stable home any more.

    Little wonder young people aren't overly chuffed with their lot in these circumstances.
    The consensus seems to be shifting away from free-market capitalism towards more traditional Keynsian economics, with policies of renationalisation of key industries and higher public spending proving increasingly popular. Even two thirds of Tory voters support renationalising the railways! As i've seen a few commentators note, it's as if the public mood has finally caught up with the 2008 financial crash.

    The Tories seem to be facing an identity crisis at the moment. They can sense the economic consensus is shifting but they are unsure whether to resist it with a full-throated defence of free-market captialism or to accept the change in mood and reform. At times they seem to be trying to do both at the same time. May, for example pledged to defend the free market but her key announcement this week was a proposal for a cap on energy prices.

    It's really hard to predict what will happen next. The old certainties of politics really seem to be losing their power.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The consensus seems to be shifting away from free-market capitalism towards more traditional Keynsian economics, with policies of renationalisation of key industries and higher public spending proving increasingly popular. Even two thirds of Tory voters support renationalising the railways! As i've seen a few commentators note, it's as if the public mood has finally caught up with the 2008 financial crash.

    The Tories seem to be facing an identity crisis at the moment. They can sense the economic consensus is shifting but they are unsure whether to resist it with a full-throated defence of free-market captialism or to accept the change in mood and reform. At times they seem to be trying to do both at the same time. May, for example pledged to defend the free market but her key announcement this week was a proposal for a cap on energy prices.

    It's really hard to predict what will happen next. The old certainties of politics really seem to be losing their power.
    Investment can work during recessions or economic difficulties. History shows us in ordinary times we do better economically by helping business in the private sector. If you support far-left state intervention that's one thing, but don't confuse it with growing the economy, if that's the aim.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Seriously hoping Leonard wins the leadership. Sarwar is utterly awful.
    From my point of view Leonard's a big communist who should be up before the Scottish Parliament Committee on Un-British Activities and possibly placed in some sort of re-education camp where he learns to love consumer capitalism, but you make a fair point. For a 2017-intake MSP he's actually a pretty decent performer and does take up the mantle of some quite interesting issues.

    Sarwar has consistently been put up by Scottish Labour and treated like he's some sort of senior figure waiting in the wings. But in everything he's done, he's always had his arse absolutely handed to him. He's often painful to watch on TV.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The narrative has shifted and Corbyn is now in a strong position to win the next General Election. That's not to say he will, but the fact we are even talking seriously about the possibility of Corbyn as PM, is rather remarkable.
    Which may, counter intuitively. count as a negative re his chance of success next time. Yes, it can give him a platform to drive forward over the line, but for those who voted for him as a form of protest against the Conservatives they are now, fully aware, he is a possible "clear and present danger."

    The key for him is how much more there is for him to mop up in left field and is that enough to cover the centrist "protest" vote which may, in part, run for safety.

    Of course there are movements of the vote in all directions but it will be a very stupid Labour move to assume those they acquired this year are theirs for keeps.

    Labour's main hope is that the Conservatives continue to carry on as a party with little certainty, next to no message, and which currently cannot fall back on its usual selling point of competence, its usual protection against bad weather which is currently looking somewhat threadbare.
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    A goat perhaps?
 
 
 
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