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Tweets can help predict the outcome of football matches Watch

    • Official TSR Representative
    • Thread Starter

    If you often put money on the football score, you might find this new research from UEA's School of Economics interesting! Snippet of it below:

    The tone of Twitter posts can predict when a team is more likely to win and soccer bets are mispriced, the study by the University of East Anglia (UEA) found.

    Researchers examined 13.8 million tweets - an average of 5.2 tweets per second - during an English Premier League (EPL) season. These were compared with in-play betting prices available at the same time on Betfair, the world’s largest online betting exchange.

    They found that if the combined tone of tweets in a given second during a match was positive – as measured by a micro-blogging dictionary – then the team was more likely to win than the betting market prices implied.

    Tweets were particularly informative in the aftermath of goals and red cards, suggesting that social media content is particularly useful in assessing the implications and significance of new information.

    Social media is used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies, but the researchers wanted to find out how useful and accurate it is. They measured the aggregate tone of all tweets for each team, in each second of 372 matches that took place during the 2013/14 season.

    What do you think? Can Twitter really predict the football score?

    - Laura, UEA Official Rep

    Twitter can't predict anything, as a whole, but I'm guessing if enough people speak about all the outcomes possible, then someone HAS to be right.

    The bookies get prices wrong all the time on a number of different markets, its just nowadays people are a lot more savvy at taking advantage of them.
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Updated: October 16, 2017
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