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Brexit: How well do you think negotiations are going? Will we leave with a deal? Watch

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    What do you believe the most likely outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be?

    Do think the UK and the EU will be able to agree on a deal that is good for both sides?

    I voted leave and I must admit the situation is looking rather grim... Or am I just being too pessimistic?
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    It's grim because the EU are behaving like children.
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    (Original post by ed98)
    What do you believe the most likely outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be?

    Do think the UK and the EU will be able to agree on a deal that is good for both sides?

    I voted leave and I must admit the situation is looking rather grim... Or am I just being too pessimistic?
    The EU aren't negotiating, they are making demands from the UK and our strategy of slowing giving in to them is wrong. We need a strong leader genuinely prepared to walk away and negotiating from our position of strength (considering our payments to their budget, the trade deficit, our contributions to security, and all the things we certainly would regain from them if no deal, like control of fishing waters) yet being generous by offering free trade, close security cooperation.

    With Theresa May in control, she may make a total mess of brexit. Perhaps that's her intention as she wanted to remain.
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    (Original post by CoffeeGeek)
    It's grim because the EU are behaving like children.
    In what way? They want to know how much we are prepared to pay in order to leave the EU. Given that we have made spending commitments previously, it is a not unreasonable place to be.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    In what way? They want to know how much we are prepared to pay in order to leave the EU. Given that we have made spending commitments previously, it is a not unreasonable place to be.
    Legally we have made no commitments, and could leave without paying anything. The EU should recognise dwindling support for itself and cut wasteful projects rather than insisting the UK continue to fund everything.

    Really they owe us money, as we are shareholders in the ECB and all the buildings.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Legally we have made no commitments, and could leave without paying anything. The EU should recognise dwindling support for itself and cut wasteful projects rather than insisting the UK continue to fund everything.

    Really they owe us money, as we are shareholders in the ECB and all the buildings.
    Where did that come from? I don't think the EU does have dwindling support - certainly not in Europe. Sure, there are lots of very vocal opponents, but I think most Europeans see and enjoy the benefits the EU offers, as do I. This is typical Brexit rhetoric based on few facts.

    And we do have binding commitments - at least until our membership ends. And there is a genuine debate about how much we owe once we leave. Like any divorce, there are bills to pay. You can't just walk off - at least not if you want any form of lasting relationship with an organisation that could make and break thousands of jobs in the UK.

    Anyone advocating a hard Brexit is either rich and doesn't give a flying f***, or is a complete and utter fool hell bent on cutting his face to spite his nose. I note many of the Tory Brexiteers MPs are the former.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Where did that come from? I don't think the EU does have dwindling support - certainly not in Europe. Sure, there are lots of very vocal opponents, but I think most Europeans see and enjoy the benefits the EU offers, as do I. This is typical Brexit rhetoric based on few facts.

    And we do have binding commitments - at least until our membership ends. And there is a genuine debate about how much we owe once we leave. Like any divorce, there are bills to pay. You can't just walk off - at least not if you want any form of lasting relationship with an organisation that could make and break thousands of jobs in the UK.

    Anyone advocating a hard Brexit is either rich and doesn't give a flying f***, or is a complete and utter fool hell bent on cutting his face to spite his nose. I note many of the Tory Brexiteers MPs are the former.
    Then can you name a single recent election in an EU state where the eurosceptics did not make gains? That shows how the discontent with the EU is growing.

    Yes, we have commitments until we actually leave, after that anything is voluntary. 17 million people voted for a proper brexit, quite ironic you say facts are important yet spout off on an ignorant rant because you don't like the majority view in a democracy!
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    Negotiations after going terribly... May keeps going round in circles making it up as she goes a long. I think part of her hopes if she can drag it out long enough the public will end up accepting another referendum and the hopes of remaining will be back on the table.

    I think the EU is just going to wash their hands with us to be honest and won't give us the kind of deals we're hoping for.
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    The EU can walk away without a deal and suffer a lot less than the UK in the same position. They can always come back later for a trade deal when the UK is in a weaker position.
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    (Original post by ed98)
    What do you believe the most likely outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be?

    Do think the UK and the EU will be able to agree on a deal that is good for both sides?

    I voted leave and I must admit the situation is looking rather grim... Or am I just being too pessimistic?
    I voted Leave but about a year ago it become obvious that the EU were going to posture a lot when they started talking about significant sums of money and gave the impression that they were a bit arrogant in believing they should set the rules after departure. It was then that i moved to supporting hard Brexit rather than become their *****.

    The negotiations are essentially going about as well as i imagined. I thought that both sides would posture although we are at risk of caving more than i thought.

    I'd say there's a 60% chance we'll get a deal we like and a 40% chance that there'll be no deal largely because i think those who expect an easier trade negotiation are naive. Indeed if the EU does not agree to keep the same terms on services as well as goods (there's a good chance they'll try screw us on services) then we should sign no deal.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Then can you name a single recent election in an EU state where the eurosceptics did not make gains? That shows how the discontent with the EU is growing.
    I don't think you can conclude anything. Turnout for European elections is low and grumpy people tend to vote where as content or ambivalent people tend not to vote. You can't say that low turnout is an indication either? People tend not to don't vote for council elections either and they are very democratic and have a real impact on people's daily lives. It is also a general fact that proportional representation allows vocal minority groups to get elected.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    I don't think you can conclude anything. Turnout for European elections is low and grumpy people tend to vote where as content or ambivalent people tend not to vote. You can't say that low turnout is an indication either? People tend not to don't vote for council elections either and they are very democratic and have a real impact on people's daily lives. It is also a general fact that proportional representation allows vocal minority groups to get elected.
    Really, for someone who claims to like facts you're doing a poor job of lying and trying to avoid the fact that Euroscepticism is bigger than ever before and growing. Proportional representation can allow extreme "minority" parties to gain some seats. When they are coming first, second or third that is not the case and shows there is support.

    If only grumpy people turned out to vote, it would be the same every election, there would be no change (but there is, massively). Let's leave out council elections then if you don't like them, and look at how wrong your baseless claims are:

    Netherlands: Turnout up from 75% to 82%.
    PVV up from 15 to 20 seats. VVD win on campaign of tighter immigration controls.

    German Federal Elections: Turnout up from 72% to 76%
    Eurosceptics up from 0 seats to 94.

    Austria: Turnout up from 75% to 80%
    Freedom Party support up from 20.5% to 26%


    France Presidential election:
    In first round, 31% voted for eurosceptic candidates in 2012. In 2017, 47% voted for eurosceptic candidates in the first round.

    And watch out for Czechia, Hungary and especially Italy next year.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Really, for someone who claims to like facts you're doing a poor job of lying and trying to avoid the fact that Euroscepticism is bigger than ever before and growing. Proportional representation can allow extreme "minority" parties to gain some seats. When they are coming first, second or third that is not the case and shows there is support.

    If only grumpy people turned out to vote, it would be the same every election, there would be no change (but there is, massively). Let's leave out council elections then if you don't like them, and look at how wrong your baseless claims are:

    Netherlands: Turnout up from 75% to 82%.
    PVV up from 15 to 20 seats. VVD win on campaign of tighter immigration controls.

    German Federal Elections: Turnout up from 72% to 76%
    Eurosceptics up from 0 seats to 94.

    Austria: Turnout up from 75% to 80%
    Freedom Party support up from 20.5% to 26%


    France Presidential election:
    In first round, 31% voted for eurosceptic candidates in 2012. In 2017, 47% voted for eurosceptic candidates in the first round.

    And watch out for Czechia, Hungary and especially Italy next year.
    Ok - fair dos. So here is my hypothesis. Ask these two questions to any European country:
    Q1: Should there be immigration controls at the border?
    Q2: Should we leave the EU completely?

    I think you would get two very different results? We seem to be on a road towards a hard Brexit. Those calling for a hard Brexit are either fools or rich (or both). A hard Brexit will be catastrophic for this country and set us back 30+ years.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Ok - fair dos. So here is my hypothesis. Ask these two questions to any European country:
    Q1: Should there be immigration controls at the border?
    Q2: Should we leave the EU completely?

    I think you would get two very different results? We seem to be on a road towards a hard Brexit. Those calling for a hard Brexit are either fools or rich (or both). A hard Brexit will be catastrophic for this country and set us back 30+ years.
    I wish there were referendums in every nation on those questions. Would be very interesting to see the results.

    Hard Brexit simply means becoming a truly sovereign country again. We can start to make our own trading arrangements and regulate industries ourselves, save a lot of money and decide how to manage our fisheries and immigration policy.

    It's an opportunity, and any negative forecasts are based on the same wrong basis that told us there would be a recession after the vote, property market crash, etc. Due to being in the EU, we trade on WTO terms with most of the rest of the world and business still happens perfectly fine. In fact, the average WTO tariff is less than monthly currency fluctuations.
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    The ..ahem.. negotiations are not going well. clearly.
    The uk is caught between a rock and a hard place..
    the GBP is performing very poorly ...
    this tells that story ..

    The financial sector in London will suffer. terribly.
    Frankfurt and Paris are set to gain significantly.
    worth noting: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41677332
    This is nothing to do with the EU being "childish" .. each EU member state has a duty to look after the interests of both the EU and its own citizens; The uk have a huge mountain to climb, because getting an EU consensus on the "BREXIT" deal from the 27 interested parties will prove incredibly complex .. furthermore, the uk, in reality has very little to negotiate with .. no real progress is being made quite simply because the EU has no urgency and wants the financial compensation that it will be owed to be agreed upon prior to any of the essential talks can really begin in earnest.
    And why did it all happen?? Just so a party could cling onto power, desperation through and through ...
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Hard Brexit simply means becoming a truly sovereign country again. We can start to make our own trading arrangements and regulate industries ourselves, save a lot of money and decide how to manage our fisheries and immigration policy.
    Yep - I hear all that. But whilst we are arguing the toss about how many Cod our three remaining fishing boats can catch, all of the industry that depends on a seamless border and movement of goods, services and people - you know - the business that pays the bills - that will either move to Europe or go bust.

    In a global market place, there is no such thing as sovereignty. I ordered something from Amazon.co.uk the other day. It was dispatched from Germany and arrived less than 24 hours later. That surely is a good thing? When we have our sovereignty back, it will take a week to clear customs and be significantly more expensive. How is that a good thing?
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Really, for someone who claims to like facts you're doing a poor job of lying and trying to avoid the fact that Euroscepticism is bigger than ever before and growing. Proportional representation can allow extreme "minority" parties to gain some seats. When they are coming first, second or third that is not the case and shows there is support.

    If only grumpy people turned out to vote, it would be the same every election, there would be no change (but there is, massively). Let's leave out council elections then if you don't like them, and look at how wrong your baseless claims are:

    Netherlands: Turnout up from 75% to 82%.
    PVV up from 15 to 20 seats. VVD win on campaign of tighter immigration controls.

    German Federal Elections: Turnout up from 72% to 76%
    Eurosceptics up from 0 seats to 94.

    Austria: Turnout up from 75% to 80%
    Freedom Party support up from 20.5% to 26%


    France Presidential election:
    In first round, 31% voted for eurosceptic candidates in 2012. In 2017, 47% voted for eurosceptic candidates in the first round.

    And watch out for Czechia, Hungary and especially Italy next year.
    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Ok - fair dos. So here is my hypothesis. Ask these two questions to any European country:
    Q1: Should there be immigration controls at the border?
    Q2: Should we leave the EU completely?

    I think you would get two very different results? We seem to be on a road towards a hard Brexit. Those calling for a hard Brexit are either fools or rich (or both). A hard Brexit will be catastrophic for this country and set us back 30+ years.
    I'd suggest your both overplaying your hands on the election point.

    It's somewhat ludicrous to ignore the fact that skeptic sentiment has increased however it is also not quite true to use this as evidence that a que of states are at risk of leaving anytime soon. In the case of 5 star, AfD and the Freedom Party for example, they basically want what the UK had before the referendum. A few opt outs, out of the euro but in the EU. There are few parties which specifically want to leave outright and have breached say 20% (France probably the most prominent). Indeed its worth saying that 5 star actually voted to join the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, one of the three core federalist groups.

    (Original post by dpm)
    The ..ahem.. negotiations are not going well. clearly.
    The uk is caught between a rock and a hard place..
    the GBP is performing very poorly ...
    this tells that story ..

    The financial sector in London will suffer. terribly.
    Frankfurt and Paris are set to gain significantly.
    worth noting: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41677332
    This is nothing to do with the EU being "childish" .. each EU member state has a duty to look after the interests of both the EU and its own citizens; The uk have a huge mountain to climb, because getting an EU consensus on the "BREXIT" deal from the 27 interested parties will prove incredibly complex .. furthermore, the uk, in reality has very little to negotiate with .. no real progress is being made quite simply because the EU has no urgency and wants the financial compensation that it will be owed to be agreed upon prior to any of the essential talks can really begin in earnest.
    And why did it all happen?? Just so a party could cling onto power, desperation through and through ...
    Your chart is a little disingenuous. Firstly the fall from $1.70 to ~$1.40 in the two years before the referendum was largely related to the dollar strengthening due to a combination of monetary tightening and the fact that US shale was crushing oil. We did see a drop from ~$1.40 to $1.20~ (it only rose to $1.50 the week before the referendum due to a belief remain would wiin) however we have since seen Sterling strengthen as the market has seemingly accepted that the sky has not fallen in.

    Sterling would fall sharply if we saw no deal but it's more likely than not that Sterling will return to pre-referendum levels in 2019 once the pen is on paper.



    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Yep - I hear all that. But whilst we are arguing the toss about how many Cod our three remaining fishing boats can catch, all of the industry that depends on a seamless border and movement of goods, services and people - you know - the business that pays the bills - that will either move to Europe or go bust.

    In a global market place, there is no such thing as sovereignty. I ordered something from Amazon.co.uk the other day. It was dispatched from Germany and arrived less than 24 hours later. That surely is a good thing? When we have our sovereignty back, it will take a week to clear customs and be significantly more expensive. How is that a good thing?
    I take it you have never ordered from the US or used any international shipping service. It adds no more than a day to the whole process.

    It would only take a week if both the UK and EU adopted extremely protectionist measures and did not use technology and agreement on rules of origin ect..
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I take it you have never ordered from the US or used any international shipping service. It adds no more than a day to the whole process.

    It would only take a week if both the UK and EU adopted extremely protectionist measures and did not use technology and agreement on rules of origin ect..
    Not really no. Mainly because sellers on the likes of eBay have lots of feedback stating how their products got held up in customs because duty had not been paid. And after shipping and duty, it was cheaper to buy in the UK anyway.

    But I just don't buy the argument that things will be better when we have our sovereignty. Sovereignty is simply a word. However it is the practical issues of doing business, having a job and supporting my family that count. Sovereignty can go whistle if having it means I don't have a job or more specifically, the value of my pound shrinks as the things like food and fuel I need to get by go up in price significantly.
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    (Original post by CoffeeGeek)
    It's grim because the EU are behaving like children.
    Lol'd.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    It's somewhat ludicrous to ignore the fact that skeptic sentiment has increased however it is also not quite true to use this as evidence that a que of states are at risk of leaving anytime soon. In the case of 5 star, AfD and the Freedom Party for example, they basically want what the UK had before the referendum. A few opt outs, out of the euro but in the EU. There are few parties which specifically want to leave outright and have breached say 20% (France probably the most prominent). Indeed its worth saying that 5 star actually voted to join the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, one of the three core federalist groups.
    I really think Italy will leave the EU within the next 10 years. Not only do they have the 5 star movement at the top of the polls, but the Northern League at 15% which is much more hard line against the EU.

    One of the reasons I like the 5SM so much, is how they operate by direct democracy and believe in it. The party encompasses wide ranging views, and sometimes give conflicting messaging, but they will be lucky to be able to be allowed to pull out of the Euro and renegotiate the treaties. If they do get in government and fail these aims, the next step has to be referendum.

    Credit to ByEeek though, unlike many others on this forum he can listen to things not heard before and have a civil debate, rather than pretending to be an expert on everything and lying to defend a position not understood.
 
 
 
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