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Brexit: How well do you think negotiations are going? Will we leave with a deal? Watch

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    I think we will get a mediocre deal last minute which will be bad for Britain. I also dont think that these luxurious trade deals with emerging economies that the Brexiteers promised will be delivered to us anytime soon
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    (Original post by dpm)
    T
    The financial sector in London will suffer. terribly.
    Frankfurt and Paris are set to gain significantly.
    worth noting: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41677332
    T...
    The Goldman move is just one of a few, of course some have gone to Ireland. WTO terms are useless re financial services, capital adequacy rules re regulation may possibly mean not just nominal shifts of a few staff to a small office but also wholesale balance sheet moves re reserves into the EU to permit trading there.

    As the clock ticks more and more financial institutions, currently with main European operational presence in the UK, will move part of their operations into the EU, they cannot afford to wait to see what is resolved, the predictions appear to be that circa March 2018 will be when the current trickle gets somewhat stronger. So if you are France or Germany you know all you need to do is run the clock down and a good chunk of UK financial services is yours for the taking.

    In the meantime anyone visiting Franfurt (I was there in August) will be struck by the amount of peripheral office space becoming available to meet expected demand, the Germans are certainly gearing up for increased office demand.

    And the banks etc operating in Frankfurt, well they currently have a pretty high demand for programmers and have contractors in from all over the world working pretty flat out- I know this as my son is out there and another of his friends from university is I understand doing similar work in Berlin; wonder what all the extra software is for.

    The whole exit is a mess, it is poorly thought out, and to date I cannot see any grounds for optimism that when the dust settles it will have conceivably been worth the pain, but what the hell, it is only money.
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    (Original post by DJKL)

    The whole exit is a mess, it is poorly thought out, and to date I cannot see any grounds for optimism that when the dust settles it will have conceivably been worth the pain, but what the hell, it is only money.
    The reports are that the cabinet has not discussed, let alone agreed what the UK actually wants. Although there is a lot of posturing from Juncker and Barnier, it seems clear that EU leaders are frustrated that the UK has been unwilling to clearly set out its "top line". The reason for that is obvious, if May asks for golden elephants, the hardliners in her party will claim she should have asked for golden camels as well.

    Personally, I think we are just marking time until the fall of the government. Theresa May has no majority to do a deal or to fail to do a deal on any terms whatsoever. A hard Brexit without a deal requires the passage of the EU Withdrawal Bill and that isn't going to pass this side of a general election.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/1...r-a-long-time/
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    I think the EU thinks its better for it to not do a trade deal for at least 5 years. The EU can wait for foreign owned UK based industries like car manufacturing which exports the majority of their cars to the EU to pack up and relocate to the EU because car manufacturing is about being seamlessly connected to component suppliers scattered around the EU.

    The EU has already seen finance companies relocating to the EU and benefiting its member states so its in no real hurry to stem that flow with a trade deal to removes the uncertainty that is fuelling the relocating.
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    You're asking a bunch of people who are not in the room, don't know anyone in the room, how the negotiations are going. What's this, Deal or No Deal.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    The reports are that the cabinet has not discussed, let alone agreed what the UK actually wants. Although there is a lot of posturing from Juncker and Barnier, it seems clear that EU leaders are frustrated that the UK has been unwilling to clearly set out its "top line". The reason for that is obvious, if May asks for golden elephants, the hardliners in her party will claim she should have asked for golden camels as well.

    Personally, I think we are just marking time until the fall of the government. Theresa May has no majority to do a deal or to fail to do a deal on any terms whatsoever. A hard Brexit without a deal requires the passage of the EU Withdrawal Bill and that isn't going to pass this side of a general election.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/1...r-a-long-time/
    Do you think Tory Remoaners will still block the bill when push comes to shove?

    I don't consider an election a bad thing per say (i think it the Tories actually develop the manifesto before they announce it then it won't be the walkover some expect) but i'm skeptical that they'd allow May to lead them into one this close to her bad period.
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    it is really pathetic. the whole thing is playing into the hands of the Kremlin & their stooges in certain parts of Westminster.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Do you think Tory Remoaners will still block the bill when push comes to shove?

    I don't consider an election a bad thing per say (i think it the Tories actually develop the manifesto before they announce it then it won't be the walkover some expect) but i'm skeptical that they'd allow May to lead them into one this close to her bad period.
    What is push and what is shove?

    On a crash out without a deal, yes they will block it and the Brexiteers really can't point to anything that says the referendum was a vote for that.

    On a deal, whatever it says, then no, I don't think they can, but there will be a lot of other sectional interests which will comprise both Brexiteers and Remainers. Some groups have to be betrayed to get a deal and those people have MPs and those MPs have to vote against the deal or they are toast. The arithmetic will require getting some opposition votes for the deal.

    And remember Theresa May isn't being sustained in office by the DUP. She is being sustained in office by Sinn Fein.
    • Very Important Poster
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    (Original post by ed98)
    What do you believe the most likely outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be?

    Do think the UK and the EU will be able to agree on a deal that is good for both sides?

    I voted leave and I must admit the situation is looking rather grim... Or am I just being too pessimistic?
    How well? Poorly.
    Will there be a deal? Yes.
    Good for both? Yes as they are essentially compromises. Its illogical to think a deal freely entered into will not have something for both sides.
    You have reason to be pessimistic, because its a shambles at the moment. Its all about ££££.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    I really think Italy will leave the EU within the next 10 years. Not only do they have the 5 star movement at the top of the polls, but the Northern League at 15% which is much more hard line against the EU.
    I think the UKs outcome will make or break the EU. If we sink why would anyone want to leave. If we thrive, others may well follow a similar path. The problem I have with the Brexit sentiment is that it is full of idealism and sentimentality. It is about sovereignty, about making our own way in the world and a rose tinted throwback to the days of empire. It is sadly lacking in practicalities of how businesses actually make money, create jobs and ultimately put food on the nations table. The two sides are incompatible.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    I think the UKs outcome will make or break the EU. If we sink why would anyone want to leave. If we thrive, others may well follow a similar path. The problem I have with the Brexit sentiment is that it is full of idealism and sentimentality. It is about sovereignty, about making our own way in the world and a rose tinted throwback to the days of empire. It is sadly lacking in practicalities of how businesses actually make money, create jobs and ultimately put food on the nations table. The two sides are incompatible.
    Don't forget we would not be going back centuries but becoming a normal sovereign country like almost 200 others, many far more successful than in the EU. So the real question is can we adjust quickly enough given that we have been locked in to this bloc for almost 40 years.

    I think it will be tough, but if we have a government which can get on with making trade deals and investing in a competitive economy things will be far better long term.

    Let's see what happens but I hope the UK can lead the way for the rest of Europe towards a new free trade agreement, and away from tonnes of bureaucrats living luxury lifestyles while they create poverty, and the corporate vested interests being in control.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Let's see what happens but I hope the UK can lead the way for the rest of Europe towards a new free trade agreement, and away from tonnes of bureaucrats living luxury lifestyles while they create poverty, and the corporate vested interests being in control.
    Because the landed elite controlling all the wealth is definitely not a problem in any sovereign, non-EU state. :erm:
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Let's see what happens but I hope the UK can lead the way for the rest of Europe towards a new free trade agreement, and away from tonnes of bureaucrats living luxury lifestyles while they create poverty, and the corporate vested interests being in control.
    I think that sums up Brexit through and through. Lets see what happens and hope it isn't too bad. Just exactly what is too bad? Where unemployment goes up to 10%? 15%? 50%?

    Or are we going to measure badness in terms of pay? We are already down on levels since 2008. How much further can we go as our pound weakens? Do you have a job? A mortgage? Family? How will they all be impacted?

    Sovereignty can go hang if I am living in a one bed B+B with damp and mould on the ceiling. And where are all these trade deals coming form? So far, I have only heard good things coming from Australia. The US want to flood us with crap we don't want, as do China. So what's in it for us?
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    (Original post by Dez)
    Because the landed elite controlling all the wealth is definitely not a problem in any sovereign, non-EU state. :erm:
    I wouldn't say that, but at least in democracies the rules are supposed to be set how the majority of people want. In practicality representative democracy can fail to achieve this and many governments are corrupt.

    However all EU legislation is MADE by the corporate giants. Better in my opinion to have crooks somehow influencing a government and to strive for true democracy, than let crooks BE the government.
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    I hope for a deal but am not hopeful it will be a good one.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    I think that sums up Brexit through and through. Lets see what happens and hope it isn't too bad. Just exactly what is too bad? Where unemployment goes up to 10%? 15%? 50%?

    Or are we going to measure badness in terms of pay? We are already down on levels since 2008. How much further can we go as our pound weakens? Do you have a job? A mortgage? Family? How will they all be impacted?

    Sovereignty can go hang if I am living in a one bed B+B with damp and mould on the ceiling. And where are all these trade deals coming form? So far, I have only heard good things coming from Australia. The US want to flood us with crap we don't want, as do China. So what's in it for us?
    Well we need to see what happens to make a judgement since as far as I know neither of us can predict the future. There is no credible economic explanation of why Brexit will be a disaster. Most of those project fear attempts were done for vested interests and the signs so far have been positive.

    Wages (which have started going up recently) certainly were down when we were in the EU. Partly due to the recession and being tied to the eurozone which we had to help bail out, and partly because when you have a huge oversupply of unskilled labour; employers have no incentive to pay above the minimum wage.

    You clearly haven't been following the pound, it has been going up not down for the last year.

    We can make trade deals with the USA (our biggest trading partner), India and the Commonwealth. We can remove the current high tariffs on poor countries and start reducing the cost of living for example far cheaper agricultural products from Africa.

    It's only a negative outlook if you choose to focus on the negatives. Or believe the BBC.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    In what way? They want to know how much we are prepared to pay in order to leave the EU. Given that we have made spending commitments previously, it is a not unreasonable place to be.
    We don't owe them a brass farthing legally. Once we leave we leave if it comes to that. They won't get a penny if we don't do a deal.

    This isn't "reasonable" or "unreasonable" it is a negotiation. Why do Remoaners not get that??

    I don't blame them for fighting their corner as hard as they can.

    I do wonder at Remoaner Britons (assuming you are one?) supporting their interests against their own country.

    YOUR taxes going to pay the pensions of French and Belgian eurocrats, on the gravy train. Rather than the supporting the NHS. Your own people.

    That is the choice, Remoaner. Them or us.
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    (Original post by generallee)
    We don't owe them a brass farthing legally. Once we leave we leave if it comes to that. They won't get a penny if we don't do a deal.

    This isn't "reasonable" or "unreasonable" it is a negotiation. Why do Remoaners not get that??

    I don't blame them for fighting their corner as hard as they can.

    I do wonder at Remoaner Britons (assuming you are one?) supporting their interests against their own country.

    YOUR taxes going to pay the pensions of French and Belgian eurocrats, on the gravy train. Rather than the supporting the NHS. Your own people.

    That is the choice, Remoaner. Them or us.
    You can be an advocate arguing a case or you can be a commentator, but not both.

    Frankly, we do not know whether there is or isn't a legal obligation on us and we will not know unless we crash out paying nothing and someone or somebody sues.

    Those who argue for no liability concentrate on a small part of the law of treaties that says that if a party leaves a treaty then unless there is provision for some continuing effect, then liabilities under the treaty comes to an end.

    The problem here is that if followed to its logical conclusion, that means that if all 28 countries wind up the EU tomorrow, no-one is liable for its obligations. International law, the law administered by the International Court of Justice in the Hague, may find that untenable.

    The EU has claimed for itself, international legal personality, the right to conclude treaties, contracts etc in its own name, but that doesn't mean that the rest of world accepts that the EU's signature is only for the European institutions and is not a signature, a commitment, on behalf of every member on the date of signature. International law may hold that we are jointly and severally responsible for all the EU's obligations.

    25 years ago the International Tin Council went bust and the members of the Council including the UK walked away from the Council's debts. They let the treaty governing the Council expire and they said that they had no continuing obligations. Various people sued. The claims were settled out of court. They were settled on ungenerous terms, but the fact they settled at all showed that the countries concerned feared that they might lose.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    I wouldn't say that, but at least in democracies the rules are supposed to be set how the majority of people want. In practicality representative democracy can fail to achieve this and many governments are corrupt.
    You have a lot more faith in the UK government than I do. I'd say Westminster is generally far more corrupt than Brussels is. Although I guess that's rather like asking which pile of poo smells the worst.

    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    However all EU legislation is MADE by the corporate giants.
    That's total rubbish.

    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Most of those project fear attempts were done for vested interests and the signs so far have been positive.
    I'm not going to pretend that every single bit of research into Brexit was 100% correct and unbiased, but there is plenty of sound evidence to say that it could have a serious negative impact, especially if we leave without a deal. To dismiss all that as "project fear" is incredibly ignorant.

    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    We can make trade deals with the USA (our biggest trading partner), India and the Commonwealth.
    The EU is our biggest trading partner.

    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    We can remove the current high tariffs on poor countries and start reducing the cost of living for example far cheaper agricultural products from Africa.
    Ah, the Venezuela model. That's worked out really well…

    (Original post by generallee)
    We don't owe them a brass farthing legally. Once we leave we leave if it comes to that. They won't get a penny if we don't do a deal.

    This isn't "reasonable" or "unreasonable" it is a negotiation. Why do Remoaners not get that??

    I don't blame them for fighting their corner as hard as they can.

    I do wonder at Remoaner Britons (assuming you are one?) supporting their interests against their own country.

    YOUR taxes going to pay the pensions of French and Belgian eurocrats, on the gravy train. Rather than the supporting the NHS. Your own people.

    That is the choice, Remoaner. Them or us.
    This is short-termist thinking. We could certainly shirk on the EU bill, but it comes at a cost. Diplomatically the UK would be screwed, and all the trade deals with the Commonwealth etc. that Brexiteers seem to get such a hard-on for will never materialise if we duck out of our current trade agreements with a massive bill left unpaid. Nobody wants to do business with a nation that doesn't pay what is owed.
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    (Original post by Dez)
    That's total rubbish.
    It isn't but I'm not surprised you have only heard the pro-EU propaganda. Who proposes every single piece of legislation? The Commission. Almost half of the workers for the Commission are employed by giant corporations or big banks, and any corporation can send lobbyists to bribe the EU to do what they want (principally kill off smaller competitors).

    If you weren't aware I suggest you look into it, because the EU is hand in glove with big corporations.

    (Original post by Dez)
    I'm not going to pretend that every single bit of research into Brexit was 100% correct and unbiased, but there is plenty of sound evidence to say that it could have a serious negative impact, especially if we leave without a deal. To dismiss all that as "project fear" is incredibly ignorant.
    Well it's what many economists have admitted considering how wrong they were about the aftershock.

    (Original post by Dez)
    The EU is our biggest trading partner.
    In terms of countries, not grouping together countries, the US is by far.

    (Original post by Dez)
    Ah, the Venezuela model. That's worked out really well…
    This has literally nothing to do with what's happening in Venezuela. If we remove the high EU tariffs (set again by big business who are uncompetitive) on cheap products we don't produce, the cost of living will go down.
 
 
 
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