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Brexit is an idiotic mistake - calendar week 42 summary Watch

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    (Original post by GenialGermanGent)
    Delusional? Lying? These are the facts. Challenge them if you want - oh wait, you can't.

    AfD scored 12% (still politically isolated, mind you) because of xenophobia and islamophobia. There are stupid, uneducated, racist people in Germany, too - luckily not nearly as many as in Britain, as the Brexit vote has shown, or as in the US, as Trump has shown.
    Clearly you have no regard for facts, saying 12% instead of 13%
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Clearly you have no regard for facts, saying 12% instead of 13%
    What a poor attempt at distracting from how I proved you wrong on every single point, how you've failed to disprove any of the facts contained in the articles I post. And of course you had nothing to reply to my actual argument on AfD's result (entirely irrelevant in this context if it's 12, 12.6, or 13 per cent). You might've as well posted a picture of a white flag.
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    (Original post by GenialGermanGent)
    What a poor attempt at distracting from how I proved you wrong on every single point, how you've failed to disprove any of the facts contained in the articles I post. And of course you had nothing to reply to my actual argument on AfD's result (entirely irrelevant in this context if it's 12, 12.6, or 13 per cent). You might've as well posted a picture of a white flag.
    It is relevant as you chose to give an incorrect figure and shows you put your agenda above the facts. Yes, some of the AfD vote was by unpleasant anti-Islam hard right racists, but the reason that has grown is Merkel's madness in allowing millions to come from North Africa and the Middle East without any proof they had even lived in danger.

    And the rest of the AfD vote was against the EU project of integration, which wants to punish the UK (but will really punish German industries). If the EU wants tarriffs on cars and washing machines, we can find them cheaper elsewhere with 0 tarriffs.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Those 6 charts by the EU linked OECD show how brexit is positive, the article tries unsuccessfully to spin them as negative.


    Chart 2: Shows how the referendum vote has caused the FTSE100 and 250, the biggest measures of UK company success, to go up.
    The FTSE 100 is in no way a measure of activity in Britain, it is merely a reflection of companies listed on the FTSE100, who in large part make most of their earnings elsewhere in the world, often not in Sterling.

    So Shell, BP, HSBC, Vodafone, British American Tobacco,Glaxo, Diageo, Astra , the big beasts, are no reflection of UK performance, they have far more overseas earnings than UK earnings. If in doubt go and have a look at their accounts where the notes will give you sales etc by region of the world.

    So as Sterling weakened their worth in Sterling increased, every Euro or dollar of overseas earnings was worth more hence share price increases in Sterling terms.

    And as they are the largest Market Caps they move the index far more than the smaller companies as the index is market cap weighted.

    If you can find many FTSE 100 companies that are not international re earnings the picture will be very different.

    How do I know this, easy, I reinvested my SIPP pre the Brexit vote as a hedge, buying ,companies with overseas earnings and selling those with a mainly/solely UK exposure, this added 22% gain from mid 2016 to April 2017.

    You need to look at cause and effect here, the FTSE 100 increase is likely more to do with overseas earnings than Uk earnings, if solely UK based we would not be seeing the other data which is indicating problems for the UK economy.


    http://www.digitallook.com/performan...alization/desc
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    Here is one, Vodafone, see page 109, UK EBITDA circa 11.67% of Group total, E1.212 Billion out of E14.149 Billion total, the Vodafone share price has little to do with the UK economy, in fact its contribution in 2017 stated above was less than its E1.756 re 2016, and its sales dropped from E8.428bn to E6.925bn, I suspect in large part due to weaker Sterling translating into fewer Euros.

    http://www.vodafone.com/content/annu...eport-2017.pdf
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    The FTSE 100 is in no way a measure of activity in Britain, it is merely a reflection of companies listed on the FTSE100, who in large part make most of their earnings elsewhere in the world, often not in Sterling.

    So Shell, BP, HSBC, Vodafone, British American Tobacco,Glaxo, Diageo, Astra , the big beasts, are no reflection of UK performance, they have far more overseas earnings than UK earnings. If in doubt go and have a look at their accounts where the notes will give you sales etc by region of the world.

    So as Sterling weakened their worth in Sterling increased, every Euro or dollar of overseas earnings was worth more hence share price increases in Sterling terms.

    And as they are the largest Market Caps they move the index far more than the smaller companies as the index is market cap weighted.

    If you can find many FTSE 100 companies that are not international re earnings the picture will be very different.

    How do I know this, easy, I reinvested my SIPP pre the Brexit vote as a hedge, buying ,companies with overseas earnings and selling those with a mainly/solely UK exposure, this added 22% gain from mid 2016 to April 2017.

    You need to look at cause and effect here, the FTSE 100 increase is likely more to do with overseas earnings than Uk earnings, if solely UK based we would not be seeing the other data which is indicating problems for the UK economy.


    http://www.digitallook.com/performan...alization/desc
    Yes, but it's still used as a good measure of how well UK companies are doing. It has been increasing since the brexit vote, even as the value of the pound increased.

    Out of interest, what data is indicating problems for the economy?
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Those 6 charts by the EU linked OECD
    the EU linked OECD ?

    the OECD has little to do with the EU : in fact, it includes also many non-EU countries (as diverse as Australia, Canada, South Korea, Chile, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Turkey etc and -to top it off- the United States) while several EU Member States are not Members of OECD (e.g. Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus etc )

    it's rather some sort of "Industrialised States" Club (even if it does not by all means include all of them), with the additional participation (but not Membership) by the EU Commission

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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    If the EU wants tarriffs on cars and washing machines, we can find them cheaper elsewhere with 0 tarriffs.
    the EU, most surely, does not want tariffs on its own exports : no need to look elsewhere for cars or washing machines

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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Yes, but it's still used as a good measure of how well UK companies are doing. It has been increasing since the brexit vote, even as the value of the pound increased.

    Out of interest, what data is indicating problems for the economy?
    If FTSE 100 or 250 is used as a metric of how UK companies are doing then whoever uses it has little real comprehension of how the 100 and 250 are compiled and how the companies within each earn profits and where they earn profits.

    In what universe is say Shell a UK company (Royal Dutch Shell) , it may be listed here, so what, that is a listing. HSBC, well the name is a giveway re where its economic activities are likely concentrated, Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation.

    The list goes on, the FTSE is merely a measure of the economic wellbeing of companies listed here, nothing more, if you try to use it as a bellweather of the UK economy you will seriously misjudge the UK economy.

    Same issues can apply with say export data, fine if denoted in volumes of goods, a true measure, but base it on any data denominated in sterling and the relative drop in the value of sterling needs factored into the comparisons.

    However not much longer to make these arguments back and forward, come end first quarter 2018 if the shape of any exit is still opaque the trickle to date of job losses will suddenly start to look pretty nasty as it turns into a torrent

    Business only has so much patience and can only take so much uncertainty, there soon comes a point that with March 2019 fast approaching the plan B, which in most cases will already be formulated, will be implemented.

    The politicians, newspapers and those with a political belief in leave or remain can bleat all they like re interpreting exports/imports/order books etc, how wonderful things are, how bad things are, the true measure will be announced job relocations or losses ,and they are a lot harder to spin; we will really know within 6-8 months but nothing I am observing through my work is suggesting a confident business sector, if they are not confident and investing in expansion then what all the talking heads say means nothing, the only wealth creation comes from business.

    Caveat emptor
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    We can never know the answer as the vote has happened and cannot be undone. People can debate and complain but we did have the vote and the result stands.

    Now, for me, the uncertainty is causing issues. Companies are making contingency plans which take time. I don’t think we will get a deal, the EU politicians will never allow it to happen. So I think we should do the hard Brexit NOW. Call their bluff. There will be short term convulsions BUT most companies will not be in a position to move yet and will be forced to adjust. Once adjusted, they don’t need to move.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    It is relevant as you chose to give an incorrect figure and shows you put your agenda above the facts.
    No - as I said already, the exact number is completely irrelevant, as it not the topic of the discussion or central to any of your points. When facts are central, I have them right - as my brutal take-down of your factually incorrect, economically illiterate first post shows.

    But it's ok, you're desperate at this point, so you need to cling to this. Go on, son, make yourself even more of a laughing stock.

    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Yes, some of the AfD vote was by unpleasant anti-Islam hard right racists, but the reason that has grown is Merkel's madness in allowing millions to come from North Africa and the Middle East without any proof they had even lived in danger.
    All of the AfD vote came from that. And Merkel deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for her brave decision to not take the risk of having thousands of people tortured and killed by turning them away, even if you let in a few economic refugees (for which we have good use in our booming economy) and bad apples in the process. This was the only correct decision, and if you disagree, you are a terrible, cold, cynical human being and need to take a long, hard look into the mirror.

    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    And the rest of the AfD vote was against the EU project of integration, which wants to punish the UK (but will really punish German industries). If the EU wants tarriffs on cars and washing machines, we can find them cheaper elsewhere with 0 tarriffs.
    Nah, AfD voters (like Leave voters) are not intelligent enough to comprehend complex interconnections and political plans. Good luck finding comparably good premium and luxury cars (or good appliances) elsewhere - and being able to still afford them, what with your economy in recession, raging inflation, and stagnant wages. Brexit will be but a blip on the radar of Germany's economy, but it will be catastrophic to you lot.
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    (Original post by GenialGermanGent)
    All of the AfD vote came from that. And Merkel deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for her brave decision to not take the risk of having thousands of people tortured and killed by turning them away, even if you let in a few economic refugees

    Nah, AfD voters (like Leave voters) are not intelligent enough ... Good luck finding comparably good premium and luxury cars
    Merkel didn’t just let those people in, she INVITED them to come, then forced other EU member states to share the burden. Who made her emperor of Europe?

    And yes, keep up the insults and threats which really helped your cause.
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    (Original post by GenialGermanGent)

    Forced? It was a coordinated EU effort to support and distribute the refugees that were coming no matter what, Merkel welcoming them or not.

    They clearly didn't hurt it, given how nobody here has been able to actually hold a candle to me with regard to knowing the facts and analyzing them correctly.
    Oh really, then why is Hungary refusing to cooperate with Merkel's dictats?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/hung...cation-scheme/

    Or Poland?
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...refugee-quotas

    Austria isnt happy:
    https://news.vice.com/story/austria-...p-migrants-out

    There are dozens more articles, but then you would know that given you "think" you know everything ... LOL.

    You are clearly very arrogant when making statements like: "nobody here has been able to actually hold a candle to me with regard to knowing ...". With an attitude like that I suspect you have very few friends out there in the real world let alone on this forum!
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    (Original post by ukrj)
    Oh really, then why is Hungary refusing to cooperate with Merkel's dictats?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/hung...cation-scheme/

    Or Poland?
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...refugee-quotas

    Austria isnt happy:
    https://news.vice.com/story/austria-...p-migrants-out

    There are dozens more articles, but then you would know that given you "think" you know everything ... LOL.
    Of course I know these things. What you seem to not know (or conveniently ignore) is that both Hungary and Poland have staunchly extreme-right, xenophobic governments who were rejecting and vilifying immigrants, and especially Muslims, long before the refugee crisis. Austria isn't far behind. Opposition from these countries is to be expected. Good thing they don't have a lot of votes and can't do much damage; they'd never leave the EU over this, the train wreck that is Brexit serves as enough of a deterrent.

    If you read the articles you quote you'd also know that these states object to court rulings, not anything that Merkel put into place.

    (Original post by ukrj)
    You are clearly very arrogant when making statements like: "nobody here has been able to actually hold a candle to me with regard to knowing ...". With an attitude like that I suspect you have very few friends out there in the real world let alone on this forum!
    No, this is not arrogance, I am stating a fact. Maybe you just haven't been around these forums for long enough (check my sign-up date).

    What kind of loser has "friends" on a forum? Thanks, I have plenty of friends IRL, on all the four continents I have studied, worked, and lived on, all of them highly educated liberals who enjoy debunking right-wing propaganda just as much as I do. They'd love this thread, and your highly entertaining, spectacularly ignorant posts.
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    (Original post by mariachi)
    the EU, most surely, does not want tariffs on its own exports : no need to look elsewhere for cars or washing machines

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    If the EU puts tariffs on our products, we put the same on theirs to make it bilateral. You appear to agree with me therefore that free trade is common sense.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    If the EU puts tariffs on our products, we put the same on theirs to make it bilateral. You appear to agree with me therefore that free trade is common sense.
    there is a huge disproportion between the EU market and the UK market : tariffs would therefore harm the UK more than EU

    not to speak of the fact that, on a multilateral level, the EU has much more clout in the WTO than the isolated UK would have

    all trade tariffs on industrial products are, in any case, bound multilaterally at a very low level (or even zero) in the framework of WTO, so problems in trade of goods would be limited to the agricultural and raw materials sector. The main issues for trade in the industrial sector concern therefore not tariffs, but standards, safety and environmental regulations etc where the main players are US and EU, and everyone else more or less has to follow suit. Then, you have services, investments, public contracts etc all areas where the EU and the US are the main players at multilateral level

    however, your post seemed to imply that the EU would impose tariffs on its own products (and this should induce the UK to look for cars and washing machines elsewhere....). This, of course, is absurd

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    (Original post by mariachi)
    there is a huge disproportion between the EU market and the UK market : tariffs would therefore harm the UK more than EU
    Yes, there is. THEY have a £70bn trade surplus with us.

    (Original post by mariachi)
    not to speak of the fact that, on a multilateral level, the EU has much more clout in the WTO than the isolated UK would have
    You appear not to know how the WTO works, it isn't about siding with the big bullies. Currently we have no representation at the WTO, after Brexit we will.

    (Original post by mariachi)
    all trade tariffs on industrial products are, in any case, bound multilaterally at a very low level (or even zero) in the framework of WTO,
    My example of cars, it's 10%, but low for most products. You're right WTO tarriffs wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would be better for Europe to continue at zero.

    (Original post by mariachi)
    The main issues for trade in the industrial sector concern therefore not tariffs, but standards, safety and environmental regulations etc where the main players are US and EU, and everyone else more or less has to follow suit.
    But only when we trade with them. The 94% of UK businesses that don't export to the EU have to currently follow burdonsome EU regulation. As Trump wants a trade deal with the UK, regulations for trade would be negotiated.


    (Original post by mariachi)
    your post seemed to imply that the EU would impose tariffs on its own products (and this should induce the UK to look for cars and washing machines elsewhere....). This, of course, is absurd

    worst
    So you don't understand how tariffs work...
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    You appear not to know how the WTO works.
    really ? how inconvenient
    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    Currently we have no representation at the WTO, after Brexit we will.
    Of course that the UK (which is a Member of the WTO since 1995, and of GATT since 1948) has a representative to the WTO (accredited also to most other international organisations based in Geneva of which the UK is a Member)

    He is called Julian Braithwaite, UK Ambassador and Permanent representative to the WTO Name:  Braithwaite.jpg
Views: 9
Size:  6.2 KB. I'm afraid he will be somehow dismayed to know he doesn't exist
    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    you don't understand how tariffs work...
    good Lord, I hadn't realised that. Thanks for telling me. Would you mind clearing up my misconceptions ?

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    (Original post by mariachi)
    He is called Julian Braithwaite, UK Ambassador and Permanent representative to the WTO Name:  Braithwaite.jpg
Views: 9
Size:  6.2 KB. I'm afraid he will be somehow dismayed to know he doesn't exist
    And he's asked to leave the room when they discuss trade so the EU can represent us.
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    (Original post by Hatter_2)
    And he's asked to leave the room when they discuss trade so the EU can represent us.
    Well, glad you admit that the UK is a Member of WTO and has a Representation to the WTO. Mr Braithwaite will be relieved.

    As far as international trade negotiations go, you should know that, while the EU Commission does negotiate for the whole EU, it has however to follow closely the guidelines decided upon by the EU Governments (including, of course the UK) within the Council of the EU meetings - these "guidelines" are usually referred to as the "negotiating mandate"

    A special committee, called the Trade Policy Committee,
    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/co...icy-committee/ comprising representatives of all EU Governments, controls then each and every move made by the EU Commission, which has to report to it after each negotiating session.

    The results of trade negotiations, before being formally adopted by the EU, have to be approved by the EU Governments (acting within the Council) and (in cases specified by the treaties), also by the European Parliament

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