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Let's model waiting for UCAS offers with statistics! Watch

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    I'm sure we can all agree that waiting for UCAS offers is a real pain. Looking online, there doesn't appear to be an answer to when we should expect offers, beyond the standard "Any time between now and May". That's not good enough. I decided to gather as much data as I could, and find some useful way to model it so that we can draw some conclusions. If you would like to participate, please send the following, either by private message or by replying to this thread:
    • The date your application was processed by UCAS and sent off to your chosen universities (can be found next to options without a reply, in UCAS Track);
    • The dates on which you got each reply so far (by reply, I mean an offer or an invitation for an interview).

    I will store this data on a spreadsheet, attached to your TSR username. Using this, we can work out, for example, the wait to have an 80% chance of getting a reply, or the average number of replies in 60 days. Is this data accurate? No. Does it account for university choice? No. Does it account for the volume of applications sent in a given time frame? No. Is the sample going to be big enough to draw solid conclusions? Hopefully (but probably not). However, no matter how dodgy the results, I think it's still better than **literally** nothing.

    My friends are already contributing, so I encourage you to send in your data and ask your friends to send theirs too, and keep me posted about updates. Good luck with your applications, everyone!
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    I would recommend rather than your method, perhaps setting up some kind of portal to add Each choice Uni and and relative information and use a SQL database and get some reports from various queries that could be made and then use that to predict timings and such, by using specific dates of application and specific waits for that time time frame so that you can predict the volume of candidates being processed at certain times to predict better response times, of course it will not he that accurate and will be out of date pretty quick but it could give a more accurate view
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    Last time ucas published the data the average time from application to decision was 7 weeks.
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    (Original post by M4cc4n4)
    I would recommend rather than your method, perhaps setting up some kind of portal to add Each choice Uni and and relative information and use a SQL database and get some reports from various queries that could be made and then use that to predict timings and such, by using specific dates of application and specific waits for that time time frame so that you can predict the volume of candidates being processed at certain times to predict better response times, of course it will not he that accurate and will be out of date pretty quick but it could give a more accurate view
    That sounds like a fun project, but I don't think I have the time to set that kind of thing up. Typing a few things into a spreadsheet myself then sitting down with a calculator one day just seems more efficient in the short-term.
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    (Original post by PQ)
    Last time ucas published the data the average time from application to decision was 7 weeks.
    Could you please provide a link to this data? I looked for something like this and I couldn't find anything.
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    (Original post by kubissx)
    That sounds like a fun project, but I don't think I have the time to set that kind of thing up. Typing a few things into a spreadsheet myself then sitting down with a calculator one day just seems more efficient in the short-term.
    You can use google forms to populate a spreadsheet.
 
 
 
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