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Germany planning for the collapse of the European Union.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/06/the-germans-are-making-contingency-plans-for-the-collapse-of-europe-lets-hope-we-are-too


A leaked document from the German defence ministry set out it's worst case scenario for the year 2040.

The document entitled strategic persepective 2040, imagines scenarios in which certain EU states have joined the Russian sphere of influence, in defiance of the Lisbon treaty.

Furthermore, the document outlines the decline of consent among populations for the current economic model and the high levels of migration as the most likely factors which will lead to the possible collapse of the EU.

Thoughts on this? Too far fetched?

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Original post by SCIENCE :D
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/06/the-germans-are-making-contingency-plans-for-the-collapse-of-europe-lets-hope-we-are-too


A leaked document from the German defence ministry set out it's worst case scenario for the year 2040.

The document entitled strategic persepective 2040, imagines scenarios in which certain EU states have joined the Russian sphere of influence, in defiance of the Lisbon treaty.

Furthermore, the document outlines the decline of consent among populations for the current economic model and the high levels of migration as the most likely factors which will lead to the possible collapse of the EU.

Thoughts on this? Too far fetched?



Italy will be the next country to leave the EU. After that, there will be a domino effect.
Reply 2
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SCIENCE :D
OP
18
Original post by calico321
Italy will be the next country to leave the EU. After that, there will be a domino effect.


I think a lot of it will depend on the Brexit negotiations. If Britain somehow leaves with a decent deal then I think other countries could follow in leaving, one of the reasons why the EU will try and ensure that the UK does not get a good deal.
Original post by SCIENCE :D
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/06/the-germans-are-making-contingency-plans-for-the-collapse-of-europe-lets-hope-we-are-too


A leaked document from the German defence ministry set out it's worst case scenario for the year 2040.

The document entitled strategic persepective 2040, imagines scenarios in which certain EU states have joined the Russian sphere of influence, in defiance of the Lisbon treaty.

Furthermore, the document outlines the decline of consent among populations for the current economic model and the high levels of migration as the most likely factors which will lead to the possible collapse of the EU.

Thoughts on this? Too far fetched?


And in the 1930s the United States planned how to fight an invasion from the British Empire.
Planning for the worse case scenario, however unlikely, is no bad thing. It's a shame that May and her merry band of Brexiteers aren't doing likewise.

Paul Mason gets more unpalatable with each passing day. Last week he was celebrating the Russian Revolution (a revolution which, let us remember, directly resulted in millions of deaths and gave rise to the most murderous and oppressive regime on Earth). I despair that people like him are running the Labour Party.
(edited 6 years ago)
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SCIENCE :D
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Original post by nulli tertius
And in the 1930s the United States planned how to fight an invasion from the British Empire.


Fair enough, never said I agreed with it. Personally think it's a bit far fetched.
Original post by SCIENCE :D
Fair enough, never said I agreed with it. Personally think it's a bit far fetched.


There is a rising tide of anti-EU sentiment. The EU is in a rough spot - Britain needs to lose the Brexit negotiations, but the EU can't be seen to be bullying Britain as that would drum up sympathy for Britain just like Spain did with Catalonia.

Badly handling Brexit will exacerbate the anti-EU sentiment. Will it result in its collapse? Reorganization? I don't know.
Reply 7
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Maker
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I expect there are scenarios of the world destroyed by nuclear war and aliens starting a chain of restaurants.
Original post by ThatOldGuy
There is a rising tide of anti-EU sentiment. The EU is in a rough spot - Britain needs to lose the Brexit negotiations, but the EU can't be seen to be bullying Britain as that would drum up sympathy for Britain just like Spain did with Catalonia.

Badly handling Brexit will exacerbate the anti-EU sentiment. Will it result in its collapse? Reorganization? I don't know.


If Britain wants to lose the brexit negotiations, then why doesnt it just withdraw and go for no deal and live with the consequences?

Where will the anti EU sentiment that you desire come from?

Rest of the world? They dont care.

If Britain behaves poorly in negotiations, then people will see it for what it is. and thats where any blame will go.

Its nothing like Spain and Catalonia.
Reply 9
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Atahan
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Its happening!

Original post by 999tigger
If Britain wants to lose the brexit negotiations, then why doesnt it just withdraw and go for no deal and live with the consequences?

Where will the anti EU sentiment that you desire come from?

Rest of the world? They dont care.

If Britain behaves poorly in negotiations, then people will see it for what it is. and thats where any blame will go.

Its nothing like Spain and Catalonia.


Since what you said had almost 0 to do with what I said, I'm assuming you misquoted?
Original post by ThatOldGuy
Since what you said had almost 0 to do with what I said, I'm assuming you misquoted?


It had everything to do what you said about Britain needing to lose the Brexit negotiations and your idea of anti EU sentiment.. What you said was ridiculous and childish
Original post by 999tigger
It had everything to do what you said about Britain needing to lose the Brexit negotiations and your idea of anti EU sentiment.. What you said was ridiculous and childish



... Right. Listen, I'm not being funny here... Have you forgotten to take some medication, maybe? I'm a little baffled as to what you think I said.
Original post by ThatOldGuy
There is a rising tide of anti-EU sentiment. The EU is in a rough spot - Britain needs to lose the Brexit negotiations, but the EU can't be seen to be bullying Britain as that would drum up sympathy for Britain just like Spain did with Catalonia.

Badly handling Brexit will exacerbate the anti-EU sentiment. Will it result in its collapse? Reorganization? I don't know.



There is a rising tide of anti-EU sentiment. [ from whom?] The EU is in a rough spot - Britain needs to lose the Brexit negotiations [Why?], but the EU can't be seen to be bullying Britain as that would drum up sympathy for Britain just like Spain did with Catalonia.[Why would the EU be seem to be the bully?].

Badly handling Brexit will exacerbate the anti-EU sentiment [Why and who is doing the bad handling?}. Will it result in its collapse? Reorganization? I don't know



Try making some sense
Original post by ThatOldGuy
... Right. Listen, I'm not being funny here... Have you forgotten to take some medication, maybe? I'm a little baffled as to what you think I said.


Tiger's response did have everything to do with your post.

If Britain choose to loose the negotiations then it wouldn't generate more sympathy for Britainsince they made the decision for a no deal to happen in the first place.
Original post by 999tigger
There is a rising tide of anti-EU sentiment. [ from whom?] The EU is in a rough spot - Britain needs to lose the Brexit negotiations [Why?], but the EU can't be seen to be bullying Britain as that would drum up sympathy for Britain just like Spain did with Catalonia.[Why would the EU be seem to be the bully?].

Badly handling Brexit will exacerbate the anti-EU sentiment [Why and who is doing the bad handling?}. Will it result in its collapse? Reorganization? I don't know



Try making some sense


All right! Some real questions, okay:

There is a rising tide of anti-EU sentiment in France(See Marine le Pen making it to the run-off on an anti-EU platform), Holland(See the Party for Freedom run by Geert Wilders and his popularity), Denmark and Italy.

The EU needs Britain to lose the negotiations while leaving because if Britain seems to do fine, that will be an argument that the many rising eurosceptic parties will use to show that leaving the EU is not as bad as the doomsayers say. If Britain is struck with punitive measures, those same people will push the tyrannical nature of the EU to drum up more anti-EU sentiment.
Original post by Snufkin
Planning for the worse case scenario, however unlikely, is no bad thing. It's a shame that May and her merry band of Brexiteers aren't doing likewise.


I would be amazed if they aren't. They have certainly been doing a lot of planning around potential Trumpisms. And the leak that May pleaded with EU leaders to help her is somewhat telling.

We are foo barred.
Original post by ByEeek
I would be amazed if they aren't. They have certainly been doing a lot of planning around potential Trumpisms. And the leak that May pleaded with EU leaders to help her is somewhat telling.

We are foo barred.


Half the Tory party (and several ministers) are hell-bent on forcing a no deal scenario. How can the government plan for the worst-case scenario if half of their MPs want it to happen?
Original post by SCIENCE :D
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/06/the-germans-are-making-contingency-plans-for-the-collapse-of-europe-lets-hope-we-are-too


A leaked document from the German defence ministry set out it's worst case scenario for the year 2040.

The document entitled strategic persepective 2040, imagines scenarios in which certain EU states have joined the Russian sphere of influence, in defiance of the Lisbon treaty.

Furthermore, the document outlines the decline of consent among populations for the current economic model and the high levels of migration as the most likely factors which will lead to the possible collapse of the EU.

Thoughts on this? Too far fetched?


Given the inevitability of further migrant crises, the EU's collapse by 2040 is not as unlikely as I'd like.

If it doesn't collapse, it will reform so radically that we wouldn't recognise it anyway.

But anyway, defence ministries make plans for all situations imaginable.
Original post by AngeryPenguin
If it doesn't collapse, it will reform so radically that we wouldn't recognise it anyway.


That's happening anyway, which is why Brexit is so frustrating. The UK is leaving just as the EU is starting to reassess its 'ever closer union' policy. Talk about bad timing.

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